A political novice, Tunisia's president stunned opponents and admirers alike by seizing near total state power in a move that thrust his country's young democracy into turmoil.
Kais Saied, a former law professor with an awkward public manner, denies accusations by critics that he has dictatorial aspirations and vows to uphold the rights of Tunisians.
But six months after sacking the North African country's prime minister, suspending parliament and assuming executive power — moves his opponents call a coup – his declared roadmap out of the crisis appears a work in progress.
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For some Tunisians it is an open question whether he will ultimately become a populist hero, a dictator who undermines democracy or a president brought down by a collapsing economy.
Tunisia is regarded as the only democratic success to emerge from the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings, but the country faces a looming public finances crisis, and painful reforms needed to secure international assistance risk triggering social unrest.
Saied seems to have decided that he embodies “the consensus of the Tunisian electorate, and that in order to move Tunisia forward, he needs to move aggressively and uncompromisingly,” said H.A. Hellyer, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
To those who back Saied, his actions were the necessary work of a rare man of integrity who managed to oust a corrupt political elite and relaunch the 2011 revolution that toppled Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali.
The solemn, balding 63-year-old, who speaks an ultra-formal style of classical Arabic, has started online consultations in order to write a new constitution, which he plans to put to a referendum in June.
Economic frustrations
His critics, drawn from across Tunisia's political spectrum and elements of civil society, say he is inexperienced, isolated and uncompromising, and fear that when economic frustrations breed opposition, he will grow autocratic.
But Saied says he wants to lead Tunisians on an enlightened political path free of corruption and that problems stem from the current 2014 constitution, which analysts say he wants to change in order to focus power in the presidency.
“The way forward is to return to the people in a completely new and different way. There must be a legal solution based on the will and sovereignty of the people,” he said in December.
Saied's inflexible approach contrasts with the tumultuous days of the 2011 revolt, when he would wander at night through the narrow streets of the Kasbah and grand colonial boulevards downtown asking protesters about their demands.
He became prominent after the revolution by appearing on media shows to talk about the constitution.
Saied swept into office in a 2019 landslide second-round vote as a scourge of corruption, his severe, formal manner contrasting vividly with that of the groomed political elite.
Saied's campaign headquarters reflected his austere approach: a small upstairs apartment in an old building with no elevator, broken windows and peeling paint work equipped with little more than a small television and some plastic chairs.
He won the support of leftists, though his radical but socially conservative politics do not neatly chime with the group. His social views – favoring the death penalty and opposing homosexuality and equal inheritance for men and women – appear to have won him support among hardliners.
As time passed after his election, he showed impatience with the messy politics of parliament and a succession of governing coalitions. Growing demonstrations indicate he has since lost some of the support evident in his early months in power.
“It looks like he is en route to creating a presidential system that oversees weakened democratic institutions such as parliament,” said Andreas Krieg, Associate Professor at King's College London's School of Security.
‘Democracy of individuals’
Tunisia is pursuing talks with the International Monetary Fund on a rescue package predicated on painful economic reforms. The discussions were halted in July, when Saied seized wide powers, but resumed after he laid out plans for a referendum and parliamentary elections this year.
Jalel Harchaoui of the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, said Saied's most daunting task could be ensuring Tunisia can carry on importing medicine, food, fuel and raw materials that the population needs daily.
But instead of tackling economic challenges he has demonized opponents in his rhetoric, hoping that will ultimately resolve Tunisia’s macroeconomic predicament, said Harchaoui.
Saied appears contemptuous of party politics and a directly elected parliament, something he wants Tunisia to entirely abandon in favor of a “democracy of individuals”.
He has previously championed local councils elected based on the character of their representatives rather than party. They would in turn choose regional representatives who would choose national ones.
Whether that sort of system is what emerges from the constitutional process he has launched, and whether it makes much difference to the economic woes that infuriate Tunisians, remains in the balance.
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