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‘No walkover’: Ukraine could extract high price for any Russian attack

Ukraine's armed forces are heavily outnumbered and outgunned by Russia's but could put up a level of resistance that would force Russian President Vladimir Putin to pay a price of many thousands of Russian lives for any new invasion.

Western military analysts say Ukraine's army is better trained and equipped than in 2014, when Russia captured the Crimean peninsula without a fight, and highly motivated to defend the country's heartland.

For those reasons, they see it as highly unlikely that Putin would contemplate an outright conquest of Ukraine.

“We won't see a big giant red arrow going across Ukraine. I don't believe the Russians have the capability to just completely overrun Ukraine and take over the whole country, nor do I think they want to,” said Ben Hodges, a retired US lieutenant general now with the Center for European Policy Analysis.

A plausible alternative, he and others said, was that Russia might push south and west from Ukraine's Donbass region – already controlled by pro-Russian forces – to link up with annexed Crimea and the Black Sea. But even that more limited objective would entail high Russian casualties.

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Siemon Wezeman, an arms specialist at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, said the scale of resistance to any invasion would dwarf anything Russia had faced in previous military operations in Chechnya in the 1990s or in its short war with Georgia in 2008.

“Yes it can defeat, say, the high level of Ukrainian forces, but try to invade a country like Ukraine with a population that is clearly against you, which is armed to the teeth, where most males have at least rudimentary military training that they can still remember. You're going into an area which is Chechnya multiplied by 10, or Georgia multiplied by 30,” he said.

“It's not going to be a walkover. And then you have to defend to your own population as Russian president that you just suffered 10,000 losses in the first few days because you were stupid enough to support the Donbass rebels. I don't think that's going to resonate very well in Russia.”

Ukraine says 92,000 Russian troops have gathered near its borders, and the United States has said a Russian invasion by a force as large as 175,000 could come as early as January.

Moscow denies menacing its neighbor and say it can move its troops around as it sees fit on its own territory. It says it perceives a threat from Ukraine's growing ties with NATO – which Kyiv seeks one day to join – and is demanding security guarantees from the West to defuse the crisis.

Daunting numbers

In terms of manpower and weapons, the arithmetic looks grim for Ukraine.

Russia's army of 280,000 is about twice the size of Ukraine's and its total armed forces of 900,000 are more than four times greater. Its 2,840 battle tanks outnumber Ukraine's by more than three to one, according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).

While Ukraine trebled its defense budget in real terms from 2010 to 2020, its total defense expenditure last year amounted to only $4.3 billion, or one-tenth of Russia's.

“In terms of air defense and electronic warfare, there is a huge gap between these two forces. It's difficult to see how Ukraine could not be completely overwhelmed from the air,” said IISS research analyst Yohann Michel.

Russia would seek to use its superiority in electronic warfare to paralyze its adversary's command and control and cut off communications with units in the field, he said.

But Ukraine's combat experience in Donbass and its short-range air defenses and anti-tank weaponry – which includes US-supplied Javelin missiles – would help to slow any Russian advance.

“It will not be a piece of cake because there is still a large number of (Ukrainian) troops. The majority of them are well motivated, so they will probably fight until the last moment,” Michel said.

Even a defeated Ukraine could “open their arms depot”, distribute weapons to the population and leave the Russians facing a kind of guerrilla warfare that would make it painful to hold onto any captured territory. “I would not want to be in six months in any area the Russians would have seized,” he said.

Putin would likely face qualms from his own public about waging war on a fellow Slav nation, as well as intense anti-Russian sentiment within Ukraine.

Former US lieutenant general Hodges said that while the numbers were stacked against Ukraine, “as you know from history, warfare is never just about math”.

“The Ukrainian population will be very hostile, the further west that Russian forces might go. This will be very, very costly for Russian forces,” he said. “The reward, the payoff, would have to be really worthwhile to keep (Putin's) own domestic population in support.”

Read more:

US advises against travel to Ukraine, citing Russia threat

US lawmakers urge pre-emptive sanctions, ship arms to Ukraine to deter Putin

Ukraine's leader seeks Russia sanctions before it's too late

Explainer: Why is Russia’s Putin so focused on neighboring Ukraine?

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Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

-wam

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At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

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US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM

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