Prigozhin death is likely Putin’s payback for mutiny, warning to opposition: Analysts

The death of Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in a plane crash two months after his short-lived mutiny is likely an assassination attempt by Russian President Vladimir Putin as “retribution for disloyalty,” serving as a cautionary tale for anyone thinking of an uprising, analysts told Al Arabiya English.

How likely is the plane crash an assassination attempt?

Analysts told Al Arabiya English that the prevailing theory is that Prigozhin’s crash was deliberate, and even should it be chalked up to be an accident, it will still be perceived as an assassination attempt, most likely devised by Putin.

Ruslan Trad, resident fellow for security research at the Atlantic Council said: “So far, the leading theory is that the plane was shot down when an air defense system was activated in the Tver region. It's not clear why it was activated… In any case, the plane did not go down because of a malfunction.”

Telegram channel affiliated with Wagner, Grey Zone, reported that Prigozhin died in a plane crash that was “shot down” in the sky over the Tver region by the Russian Defense Ministry.

It confirmed his death in a message: “The head of the Wagner Group, Hero of Russia, a true patriot of his Motherland, Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin, died as a result of the actions of traitors to Russia.”

The Kremlin has yet to issue any official statement on the plane crash or Prigozhin's fate. All that was announced was that the Federal Agency for Air Transport of Russia initiated an investigation of the crash.

Ivan Fomin, Democracy Fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) said: “It is likely that the plane crash is a result of an assassination attempt orchestrated by Putin. This is precisely what one would expect, especially given the Russian leader's particular sensitivity to disloyalty. In fact, it would be more surprising if Prigozhin, after his mutiny, had been allowed to live.”

Prigozhin’s mutiny had a resounding impact within Russia and internationally as well. The general consensus amongst international politicians and analysts is that the mutiny had weakened Putin and raised questions about his ruling with an iron fist at a critical time when his forces confront an intense counter-offensive in Ukraine.

Mark N. Katz, Russian foreign policy expert and non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council said: “Whether the crash was really an accident or not, many people—including in Russia—are sure to believe that Prigozhin's plane was deliberately attacked or sabotaged somehow.”

Professor Eugene Finkel, Kenneth H. Keller Associate Professor, School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University said: “Even if this was an accident, it will still be treated as assassination. By whom is also a matter of speculation but again, the perception is that Putin is behind it.”

As for who is definitively responsible for the plane crash, Katz highlighted that it is doubtful that the full story will emerge any time soon, or at all. However, he highlighted that “Putin, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, and Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov all could be said to have motive, opportunity, and means to kill Prigozhin. Perhaps the Russian security services more broadly did also.”

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Putin stands to benefit from Prigozhin's death

Regardless of whether Putin was directly behind Prigozhin’s crash, the Russian President stands to benefit from the Wagner chief’s death.

Fomin said: “Prigozhin's death, or the fact that everyone will believe that he is dead, is beneficial to Putin in terms of demonstrating the inevitability of retribution for disloyalty. In this way, he reduces the likelihood that mutinies like Prigozhin's will happen again.”

Katz concurred: “Putin does benefit from Prigozhin's death. Since Russians in particular are going to see this as deliberate, Prigozhin's death can serve as a warning that seriously opposing Putin is not good for one's health. So anyone else thinking that they can stage a rebellion should beware.”

Trad said: “Putin has undoubtedly not forgiven Prigozhin, and it was only a matter of time before there was punishment. But for now, we cannot say who was behind the downing of the plane… [However], this will not be the first case of removing an important figure who has become a threat.”

Finkel highlighted: “Exactly two months ago Prigozhin launched a mutiny that humiliated Putin and since then he is perceived as a much weaker figure. Killing Prigozhin (if this was Putin) won't restore the image completely but at the very least it ensures that Prigozhin won't stage a new mutiny.”

What happens now to Wagner group?

Katz said: “Wagner will be brought more directly under the control of the Russian defense ministry—whose attempt to exert control over Wagner forces operating in Ukraine were what precipitated the mutiny to begin with.”

However, Fomin questioned whether Putin can manage to rule over the group in the absence of Prigozhin: “It is unclear to what extent Putin is able to effectively control Prigozhin's mercenaries without his presence.”

Finkel pointed out that the plane also carried Wagner group commander Dmitry Utkin leaving a huge gap in the group’s command structure.

Trad agreed: “Wagner will remain an essential instrument of Russian foreign policy. [However], the deaths of Prigozhin and Wagner's founder Utkin, will have repercussions for Wagner's activity and the unit's public standing.”

Read more:

Wagner chief Prigozhin killed in plane crash near Moscow

Wagner affiliated channel claims Prigozhin’s plane was shot down by defense ministry

British MP on Prigozhin’s death in plane crash: ‘Putin is sending very loud message’