Ukraine sees economy growing by about 5 percent in 2024

Ukraine expects its economy to grow by about 5 percent next year, driven by investment in reconstruction and stronger consumer demand, a senior Economy Ministry official said on Tuesday.

The ministry expects gross domestic product to grow by around 2.8 percent this year, said Natalia Horshkova, head of the ministry’s department for strategic planning and macroeconomic forecasting.

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“We expect 5 percent growth in 2024. The driver will be investment dynamics,” she told a roundtable on the economy.

Ukraine’s economy shrank by about a third last year after it was devastated by Russia’s February 2022 invasion. The annual fall was the largest since independence more than 30 years ago.

But businesses and industrial producers have adjusted to wartime realities better than expected and the government, analysts and foreign lenders now expect the economy to grow.

Horshkova said the ministry expected the war to end in 2024 and that an end to the fighting would help drive more investment to support the country’s reconstruction. The economy ministry also expects Ukrainian refugees will start returning, supporting domestic consumption.

The ministry expects about 3 million people to return next year if the fighting ends, she added. Data from United Nations’ refugee agency show that about 6 million Ukrainian refugees were registered in Europe at the end of July.

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