Russia’s Black Sea Fleet will likely take more active role in disrupting trade: UK

Russia’s Black Sea Fleet will likely now take a more active role in disrupting trade after Moscow decided to consider any Ukraine-bound ship in the Black Sea as a military carrier, the UK Ministry of Defense said on Thursday in an intelligence update on the war.

Russia announced on Wednesday that it will start considering all vessels traveling on the Black Sea heading to Ukrainian ports as “potential military cargo carriers”, declaring a number of areas in the northwestern and southeastern parts of the international waters of the Black Sea as “temporarily dangerous for navigation,” and adding that the flag countries of ships traveling to Ukrainian ports will be considered parties to the conflict on Kyiv’s side.

The UK said in its assessment: “The Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) will likely now take a more active role in disrupting any trade which continues. However, BSF blockade operations will be at risk from Ukrainian uncrewed surface vehicles and coastal defense cruise missiles.”

The Russian Black Sea Fleet has been a subject of geopolitical tensions in the region, with its operations occasionally causing concerns and disruptions. Russia's military activities in the Black Sea, including naval maneuvers and exercises, have raised tensions with neighboring countries and sparked debates about freedom of navigation and maritime security. Instances such as the annexation of Crimea in 2014, which led to the deployment of additional Russian naval forces in the region, have heightened concerns about Russia's influence and intentions.

NATO member states and other countries in the region have expressed apprehension over Russia's increased presence and its impact on regional stability. Disruptions to trade and navigation have been reported, including incidents where Russian naval vessels have engaged in aggressive maneuvers, approached or intercepted foreign vessels, and conducted military exercises near important sea routes. These actions have prompted calls for increased international monitoring and cooperation to ensure the safe and secure passage of ships in the Black Sea.

Regarding Russia quitting on Monday the Black Sea Grain initiative – a year-old deal allowing the safe passage of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea – the British ministry said: “Russia is aiming to deter all merchant shipping from Ukrainian ports. Russia likely made the decision to leave some time ago because it decided that the deal was no longer serving its interests. Russia has masked this with disinformation, claiming its withdrawal is instead due to concerns that civilian ships are at risk from Ukrainian mines and that Ukraine was making military use of the grain corridor without providing evidence for these claims.”

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