‘Depleted’ Wagner forces unlikely to fight beyond Bakhmut: Think tank

Wagner group forces, at their “current depleted state”, are unlikely to continue fighting in Ukraine after they pull out of the city of Bakhmut, according to analysis by a think tank.

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin reiterated on Monday that his forces had successfully captured Bakhmut City and will pass control to Russian armed forces by May 25 – June 1, at which time he would pull his men out of the battlefield.

“Wagner forces began showing signs that they would be unable to pursue offensive operations beyond Bakhmut City from at least late December 2022,” Washington-based think tank Institute of Study of War (ISW) wrote in an assessment.

The think tank forecasted that “Wagner offensive operations would likely culminate after months of attritional urban combat, and it is unlikely that Wagner will continue fighting beyond Bakhmut at its current depleted state.”

Fighting in the battle for Bakhmut has raged on for more than eight months, making it one of the longest and bloodiest battlefronts of Russia’s war on Ukraine with heavy losses on both sides. Wagner mercenaries spearheaded the latest Russian offensive on Bakhmut after Russian troops attempted to take Bakhmut last August and were rebuffed by Ukrainian forces.

Washington had estimated earlier this month that at least 10,000 Wagner mercenaries have been killed during the past five months.

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Wagner chief's Bakhmut win only symbolic, controlled withdrawal unlikely: Think tank