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Wagner chief’s Bakhmut win only symbolic, controlled withdrawal unlikely: Think tank

Russia’s Wagner chief’s capture of the city of Bakhmut is only a “symbolic” victory that doesn’t award Moscow any tactical gains against Ukrainian forces, and the mercenary group’s chief is unlikely to successfully execute a controlled withdrawal and handover to the Russian military within the announced timeframe, according to analysis by a think tank.

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin announced on Saturday that his forces had successfully captured Bakhmut City, planning to establish defensive positions and pass control to Russian armed forces by May 25. President Vladimir Putin on Sunday congratulated Wagner forces and Russian troops for the claimed victory, according to the Kremlin.

Meanwhile, Kyiv gave a conflicting account disputing the Russian claim. It said that fighting for Bakhmut continued and added that Ukrainian troops had a foothold in the eastern city.

Fighting in the battle for Bakhmut has raged on for eight months, making it one of the longest and bloodiest battlefronts of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Wagner mercenaries spearheaded the recent Russian offensive on Bakhmut after Russian troops attempted to take Bakhmut last August and were rebuffed by Ukrainian forces.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had said in a March interview with AP that losing Bakhmut would be a costly political defeat for Kyiv and an opportunity for Putin to “sell this victory to the West, to his society, to China, to Iran.”

On Sunday, asked about Bakhmut, Zelenskyy said: “Bakhmut has not been captured by the Russian Federation as of today. There are no two or three interpretations of this.”

The Washington-based think tank Institute of Study of War (ISW) wrote in an assessment that Wagner’s claim of victory in Bakhmut was a hollow “symbolic” win. It added that the areas claimed by the Russians “are not tactically or operationally significant.”

“Their capture does not grant Russian forces operationally significant terrain to continue conducting offensive operations or any particularly strong position from which to defend against possible Ukrainian counterattacks,” ISW reported.

The capture of Bakhmut wouldn’t provide a solid foundation off of which offensive campaigns can be launched, ISW assessed: “Prigozhin’s claimed capture of the remaining blocks in Bakhmut is not strategically significant as it will not allow exhausted Wagner or conventional Russian forces to establish a meaningful springboard for further offensive operations.”

Additionally, the think tank cast doubt over Wagner group’s ability to conduct a controlled withdrawal from the city and hand it over to Russian military.

“Wagner forces are unlikely to establish adequate defenses or consolidate recent gains in Bakhmut sufficient to forestall Ukrainian counterattacks by May 25… Withdrawal in contact with the enemy is an exceedingly difficult task that the Wagner Group’s forces are unlikely to perform well within Prigozhin’s five-day time frame. Conducting a relief-in-place while in contact is also an extremely challenging maneuver that Russian forces would likely struggle to conduct.”

The think tank also cited “poor coordination” between Wagner forces and the Russian Ministry of Defense as another obstacle in the face of a “relief-in-place” operation.

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