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Middle East helps Europe fill diesel void as Russian flows slump amid war, sanctions

Middle Eastern petrostates are helping Europe make up for a drop in diesel supplies from Russia.

Flows of the transport fuel from the Arabian Gulf to Europe are set to rise almost 130 percent this month to 379,000 barrels a day, according to fixture reports and tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

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That’s the highest figure since October 2020 and will be bigger than the 166,000 barrel-a-day fall in European imports from Russia, according to the provisional bookings data.

The shift comes as the Europe Union tries to isolate Moscow for its attack on Ukraine with far-reaching sanctions. Energy exports are yet to be penalized by the bloc but traders, shippers and insurers are increasingly wary of taking on Russian barrels.

On Wednesday, Moscow escalated its standoff with Europe by cutting natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria.

In Europe, prices of diesel, used to power trucks, heavy machinery and ships, have surged around 70 percent this year. That’s even more than crude, which jumped above $100 a barrel in the wake of Russia’s attack.

The so-called crack spread for diesel – a measure of the profitability for refining crude – has increased from $11 a barrel at the start of 2022 to more than $40.

That’s giving countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates an incentive to increase exports of diesel. The two OPEC members are known as swing producers for their ability to ramp up crude output.

But after more than a decade of expanding refining capacity and building their trading arms, they’re now playing a similar role in refined fuel markets. The diesel flows may generate Middle Eastern producers around $1.5 billion in revenue over the course of this month based on current prices, according to Bloomberg calculations.

Diesel stockpiles around the world fell heavily last year as demand recovered from the worst of the coronavirus pandemic, and the trend’s accelerated since the Ukraine war started. The problem could worsen in the coming months as more long-term Russian supply contracts expire and traders refuse to extend them, said Matt Stanley, a Dubai-based broker at Star Fuels.

Russia will still be the biggest diesel supplier to Europe this month, with flows averaging 618,000 barrels a day, according to the data.

Shippers and traders have booked 19 vessels to take refined products to Europe from the Gulf for potential delivery in May, almost three times as many as were reserved for April delivery at the same point last month.

Middle Eastern refiners have the capacity to raise diesel production further as they’re coming out of their traditional winter maintenance period, when demand is lower.

Companies such Saudi Aramco and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. are among those most likely to benefit from diesel’s rise, said Stanley. That’s because their integrated production, refining and trading businesses allow them to react quickly to market swings.

Aramco’s largest refinery of Ras Tanura, capable of handling 550,000 barrels a day of crude, is back to capacity after shutting diesel units for maintenance in March, traders said. The company’s new 400,000 barrel-a-day refinery at Jazan on the Red Sea is still ramping up, they said.

In the UAE, Adnoc and Dubai’s Emirates National Oil Co. have restarted units that process condensate, a light type of oil.

Read more:

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Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

-wam

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At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

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US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM

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