World

US intelligence analysts warn against Iran’s new ‘UAV diplomacy’

Washington designated a network of individuals and entities across four countries on Tuesday for their support of Iran’s unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and military aircraft industry as US concerns grow over Tehran’s expanding drone threats.

The new sanctions come as senior US intelligence officials race to dispel Iranian claims that it is not supporting Russia in its war on Ukraine. Intel officials also want to show the international community, including the Europeans and Arabs, that the burgeoning Russia-Iran defense relationship could threaten them.

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In a recent off-camera briefing with Al Arabiya English and one other outlet, Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) officials and analysts explained the correlation between Iranian drones used to target American troops in Iraq and those used by Russia to kill civilians inside Ukraine.

“This is the first US attempt to show Iran is helping Russia, and this is to combat [Russian and Iranian] disinformation,” said one senior DIA analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity like others during the briefing.

Iran has repeatedly denied providing weapons to Russia, including this week when Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi called on the US to provide proof.

European capitals and the UN have all heard US allegations but have urged Washington to provide proof of Iran supplying drones to Moscow.

In an updated and declassified report, the DIA produced a visual comparison of the UAVs used by Russia in Ukraine and Iranian UAVs used to attack US and partner forces in the Middle East. According to the DIA, the debris and components from Ukraine were consistent with the systems displayed at military expos and other venues in the Middle East.

DIA analysts showed a Shahed-131 recovered after an attack in Iraq’s Karbala in 2021. Alongside the Shahed-131 was the debris from different Shahed-131s used in Ukraine last Fall. The DIA analysts pointed to the satellite navigation antennas that were identical in both, as well as the honeycomb-like mesh structure used inside the drones. The honeycomb-like design is an Iranian signature, as is the wing stabilizer in drones used in Iraq to target US troops and in Ukraine.

The engine components of drones in Iraq and Ukraine are identical, including the rotary engine, compartment cover, engine throttle body, relay board, processing module case cover, and processing module case.

It is worth noting that Iran carried out and publicly claimed an attack on Kurdish fighters in northern Iraq in September 2022. The debris of the UAVs used in that attack removes doubt that the origin of the drones was Iranian. The DIA said that the same UAV components in that attack and a separate Russian attack in Ukraine around the same time led to the conclusion that both of these systems were Iranian.

Asked what route was being used to transfer drones from Iran to Russia, intel analysts said transit through the Caspian Sea was now the preferred method.

“Iran is sending drones and support to produce drones inside of Russia,” one analyst told Al Arabiya English while highlighting satellite imagery that showed a drone production facility being built in Russia.

Iran has advisors on the ground and is sending material support for the drones to be produced inside Russia instead of shipping already-built UAVs from Tehran to Moscow.

Tuesday’s sanctions on Iran’s drone network targeted three individuals in Iran, two individuals and one entity in China, three entities in Russia and two individuals in Turkey.

Iran’s UAV procurement, development, and proliferation destabilize the Middle East region and support Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified war against Ukraine,” the State Department said.

Recovered Shahed-131 wing stabilizers and engines at the Defense Intelligence Agency. (DIA)

Over the summer, the US, Albania, France, the UK, and Ukraine called on the UN Security Council to probe the Russian use of Iranian UAVs in Ukraine.

Iranian UAV diplomacy

But what is more concerning is the future of Iran’s drone program and its ties with Russia, which a DIA analyst said was transitioning from a purely transactional relationship to a true partnership.

“The groundwork is being set [for such a partnership],” the analyst said.

The danger of the Iranian drones being used in Russia is that Tehran has a battlefield to use as a testing facility for what works and what doesn’t.

On the flip side, the threat is relative. “We’ve gotten better, and we’ve observed to see what works, too,” the analyst said.

However, the risk for Gulf and other regional countries lies in the “new way” Iran operates with low-cost, easy-to-put-together drones and how they continuously innovate their UAV systems.

“Does the region have the proper defense capabilities to defend against dozens of drones,” the analyst asked.

More recovered parts of Iranian-made Shahed drones on display at the Defense Intelligence Agency. (DIA)

He was referring to a new method used by the Russians to deploy multiple drones at once into Ukraine. Previously, Iran or Iran-backed militias would fire one or two drones at US or allied forces in Iraq or Syria. The new method could be the future of drone wars, intel analysts said.

As for the Iranian president’s claims that Iran was not sending drones to Russia, the senior analyst said the proof was displayed for think tanks, government officials from over 20 countries, and reporters to see. “This directly counters that [Iran’s denial], and this is the only place in the world that there is an Iranian drone intact for all to see,” the same analyst said.

With crippling sanctions preventing the Iranian regime from proper economic and financial relationships with other countries, it could turn to exporting and selling UAV technologies. “This time, Iran helped Russia, but it could be someone else in the future,” the analyst warned.

US bolsters military ties with Armenia, irking Russia

Original Article

World

Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

-wam

World

At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

World

US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM