The strife between PMC Wagner and the Russian government burst onto mainstream media following the private military group’s armed rebellion in June against the Russian military. But, according to an article on the Middle East Institute website, the conflict in fact began in 2017 in Syria, coming to a head a year later, when Wagner suffered heavy losses due to reported lack of support from the Russian army.

Wagner’s history, role in Syria

Wagner forces have been in Syria since 2015, fighting alongside forces loyal to Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The private militia played a vital role in pushing the Russian military’s interest in Syria but suffered substantial human casualties over the years due to reported Russian negligence and it denying its association with the group.

Fighters of Wagner private mercenary group are seen atop of a tank while being deployed near the headquarters of the Southern Military District in the city of Rostov-on-Don, Russia, June 24, 2023. (Reuters)

“It (Wagner) is a Russian shadow army that includes a double benefit to Russia, in terms of denying (the scale of Russian presence) in Syrian territories and minimizing (official) Kremlin losses,” Mohammed Hassan, a scholar with the Middle East Institute think tank’s Syria program, told Al Arabiya English.

Wagner troops, however, have suffered great losses in Syrian battles, due to the inadequate support from the Russian military, Hassan added.

Beginning of the conflict

The conflict between Wagner and the Russian army first sprouted in the city of Palmyra in late 2016 and early 2017, when Wagner forces, backed by the Syrian army, fought to drive ISIS out of the ancient city, Hassan and a Syrian journalist, Samer al-Ahmed, explained in a co-authored commentary article published on MEI’s website.

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During the mission, the Russian military in Syria failed to supply enough ammunition to the fighters, leading to substantial losses among Wagner units.

The dispute further intensified following the capture of Palmyra in March 2017.

“The Russian Ministry of Defense awarded medals to military leaders in the Russian Armed Forces and local Syrian militias… However, Wagner forces, which played a leading role in the battle, were not granted any honors,” Hassan and al-Ahmed wrote.

“Prigozhin frequently highlighted this discrepancy in his media appearances, characterizing it as an appropriation of Wagner’s efforts and sacrifices and their wrongful attribution to the Russian military leaders,” they continued.

Founder of Wagner private mercenary group Yevgeny Prigozhin poses with mercenaries Biber and Dolik during a statement on the start of withdrawal of his forces from Bakhmut and handing over their positions to regular Russian troops (File photo: Reuters)

The second and potentially the most significant source of conflict between Wagner and the Russian army came in February 2018, when the Russian military commanded Wagner forces to advance into the Khasham area, situated in the eastern Syrian city, Deir ez-Zor.

According to Hassan, an estimated 600 Wagner fighters carried out an attack against the Kurdish forces supported by the United States, with the aim of seizing control of the Conoco natural gas plant. The Russian military assured Wagner troops of comprehensive air protection against American aircraft attack and promised Prigozhin of any changes in plans made to address the US response.

These pledges, however, were not upheld, and the Wagner forces suffered heavy losses — an estimated 200 fighters died in the attack.

The Russian government denied its presence in the area when asked by the American forces, claiming that it was a private independent operation, leaving the US army with no choice but to obliterate that unit, according to Dr. Roby Barrett, a fellow with the Cambridge Middle East and North Africa Forum specializing in Gulf and regional security issues.

“It appeared that the Russian military didn’t care very much that the United States wiped out their unit and there really wasn’t an unofficial protest from the Russians about it,” Barret told Al Arabiya English.

Meanwhile, Wagner perceived the incident as a “clear betrayal” by the Russian Ministry of Defense, according to Hassan and al-Ahmed.

Fighters of Wagner private mercenary group walk along a street while being deployed near the headquarters of the Southern Military District in the city of Rostov-on-Don, Russia, on June 24, 2023. (File photo: Reuters)

The conflict between Wagner and the Russian government deepened over time on a range of other issues, including Russian military intervention in Syria in 2020 that stopped Wagner enlisting Syrians into its ranks.

In 2022 the Russian army supported Chechnya following fighting between Wagner and the Chechen forces in Syria’s Al Hasakah Province. This move angered the Russian mercenary group, particularly because it was at odds with Chechen forces for displaying pictures of their leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, as a hero of the Ukraine war, while Wagner believed that its troops were responsible for restoring the reputation of Russia on the frontlines in Kyiv.

Preventing a broader mutiny

Following Prigozhin’s attempted coup, the Russian high command sent senior officers to Syria to contain Wagner troops in the region and prevent them from becoming part of a broader mutiny against the Russian government.

“The Wagner fighters present in Syria were surrounded by the Russian military police present in Syria, and they were arrested and transferred to the Hmeimim military base,” Hassan told Al Arabiya English. “Some of them joined Russian forces while some were transferred to Belarus.”

The areas controlled by the Wagner forces were handed over to Iranian militias, which helped the Russian military police surround Wagner’s headquarters in Syria, Hassan added.

Cadets of a military academy attend the funeral of Dmitry Menshikov, a mercenary for the private Russian military company Wagner Group, killed during the military conflict in Ukraine, in the Alley of Heroes at a cemetery in Saint Petersburg, Russia December 24, 2022. (Reuters)

Some scholars believe that Wagner forces are still present in Syria.

According to Anton Mardasov, an expert at the Russian International Affairs Council think tank and Middle East Institute’s Syria program, “PMC Wagner continues to be based in Syria, as well as in African countries — the company has an extensive structure and is present in different provinces.”

Wagner has played a significant role in safeguarding Russian interests in Syria, but their future in the region is uncertain and there remains a possibility of further armed rebellion in the country similar to that in Moscow.

“The militias are many and follow many countries such as Iran, Russia, Turkey, and the United States, thus the opportunity to rebel and overthrow the Syrian regime is very great.” al-Ahmed said. “The regime is currently in a vulnerable position due to the deteriorating economic conditions and the dependence of most militias in areas of its control, so the situation can be tense at any moment.”

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