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Marriage of convenience: Isolated Russia and Iran bond over shared animosity to West


Recently, Iran and Russia have been gradually strengthening their ties, forging a deeper strategic partnership that has implications not only for their bilateral relations but also for regional dynamics and international geopolitics. Several factors have contributed to the development of closer ties between the two nations.

One significant factor is the shared interest in countering common adversaries and challenges. Both Iran and Russia have faced international sanctions and isolation, largely due to their actions and policies that are at odds with Western interests. Consequently, they have found it beneficial to cooperate and support each other in the face of economic and political pressure from the West. Iran's nuclear program and Russia's actions in Ukraine, for example, have drawn criticism and sanctions from the international community, leading the two countries to seek solidarity in their defiance of Western pressures.

Moreover, both Iran and Russia view the Middle East as a crucial region for their geopolitical interests. Iran aims to expand its influence and establish itself as a dominant power in the region, particularly through its support for various proxy groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria. Russia, on the other hand, seeks to bolster its presence and influence in the region, capitalizing on the power vacuums created by the Syrian civil war and other conflicts. By coordinating their efforts and supporting aligned factions in the Middle East, Iran and Russia have advanced their respective regional ambitions.

Furthermore, the economic dimension of their relationship is gaining importance. Sanctions imposed on Russia have led to the diversification of its economic partnerships, with Iran emerging as an attractive market and partner. Likewise, Iran, with its vast energy resources and potential, offers strategic opportunities for Russia's energy interests and economic expansion.

While Iran and Russia's growing cooperation has provided them with certain advantages, it has also drawn concern from some regional and international actors. The deepening partnership between the two nations, especially in the realms of defense and security, has implications for the balance of power in the Middle East and could potentially impact regional stability. It also poses challenges to the interests of other actors, including the United States and its allies in the region.

Overall, the evolving relationship between Iran and Russia reflects a convergence of interests and strategic priorities, presenting opportunities for both nations to advance their geopolitical objectives in an increasingly complex and competitive global landscape.

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Closer than ever

In present day, Iran and Russia are closer than ever before, having formed a partnership of convenience against the West, with the war in Ukraine making Moscow turn to Tehran to acquire arms.

White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said in May: “We continue to see indications that Iran and Russia are expanding their unprecedented defense partnerships. This is a full scale defense partnership.” Kirby said that Iran is now Russia’s top military backer providing it with hundreds of reconnaissance and suicide drones that Moscow uses to attack targets in Ukraine.

Beyond drones, Kirby added: “Interactions between Iran and Russia in matters regarding the selling of advanced weapons, especially more advanced UAVs, are now continuing.”

The defense partnership between Russia and Iran is mutually beneficial as Iran announced in April that it had finalized a deal to buy Su-35 fighter jets from Russia. Kirby stressed that Iran is seeking to purchase additional military equipment from Russia, including attack helicopters, radars and Yak-130 combat trainer aircraft. In total, Iran is seeking billions of dollars’ worth of military equipment from Russia.

Additionally, Iran has reportedly dispatched trainers to occupied Ukraine in a bid to assist Russian forces in resolving challenges related to their recently acquired fleet of drones, procured from Iran. This move indicates a deepening relationship between Iran and Russia since Russia's military intervention in Ukraine.

The Iranian trainers are reportedly stationed at a Russian military facility located in Crimea, where a significant portion of the drones has been deployed following their delivery from Iran. These trainers belong to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), a branch of the Iranian military that has been designated as a terrorist organization by the US.

“This is a full-scale defense partnership, that is harmful to Ukraine, to the region in the Middle East, and to the international community,” Kirby emphasized.

The Iranian military support to Russia has secured a fresh round of Western sanctions against Tehran by the US and EU targeting individuals and entities responsible for, supporting or involved in Iran’s UAV’s program.

How the experts view the relationship?

A parallel between Russian and Iranian positions on the global stage can be clearly drawn and an argument made that their similar circumstances made them mutually-beneficial bedfellows. Most experts told Al Arabiya English they saw in Iran and Russia isolated countries, each standing to gain from their bilateral relationship. However, some argued that Russia was taking advantage of Iran.

Jon B. Alterman, director of the Middle East program at CSIS, said: “Both countries seem to have concluded that Western hostility is a constant, and if either were to act in a more conciliatory manner, it would only weaken them. Russia has relied on Iran for drones, and there are reports that Iran has helped Russia think through sanctions-busting strategies, which Iran itself has been developing over decades.”

Daniel Byman, professor in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University said: “The relationship with Russia is valuable to Tehran for several reasons. First, Iran is isolated on the world stage, and having a major power — even one like Russia that is in a difficult situation — as a potential partner is beneficial. Russia can use its political influence, such as at the UN Security Council, to help Iran and there are possibly beneficial military relations.”

He added that Iran can possibly distance itself from or grow closer to Russia as a foreign policy negotiation chip. “Iran can also adjust it support for Russia based on its progress with the West on various negotiations — the threat of a close partnership with Russia can be used as an inducement to the US and Europe, and moving away from Moscow as a concession for things Iran cares more about.”

Anna Borshchevskaya, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, focusing on Russia's policy toward the Middle East stressed that Russia and Iran needed each other, essentially because they had little other options in the face of the isolation from the West. She argues: “Iran is now in a better position to ask for more from Russia than it could before the invasion of Ukraine,” thanks to Iran’s role in providing Russia with combat drones. She said Iran is now able to get more advanced weaponry from Russia and cooperation in other spheres.

Adjunct senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council of Foreign Relations, Henri Barkey said: “They are both outliers, even outcasts. There may be countries supporting them but relatively speaking they have little clout in world politics. Yes, Iran and Russia's similar circumstances go along way to create a bond between them. They have a common enemy, the West, and that helps strengthen their cooperation especially because both are undemocratic, there is no room for dissent at home.”

On the other hand, Alex Vatanka, the founding Director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute argued that Russia was taking advantage of Iran’s isolation and that Tehran was “beholden” to Moscow: “Russia is taking advantage of the Iranian situation… At the moment, there’s nothing Russia needs to do to please the Iranians because the Iranians don’t have anywhere to go.”

He added: “The Iranians have… this mistaken belief that they have in [Russian President] Vladimir Putin a strategic partner that will be with them through thick and thin, which I don’t think is going to happen.”

Read more:

Iran helping Russia build drone factory near Moscow for Ukraine war: White House

Russia’s Lavrov says Iran will be formally approved as member of Shanghai alliance

Iran’s Raisi speaks to Russia’s Putin, expresses ‘full support’: Kremlin

Iran supports the rule of law in Russia: Foreign ministry

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Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

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At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

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US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM

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