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China’s stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict: Balancing act or neutral observer?


As the Russia-Ukraine war surpassed 500 days, several key questions remain unanswered, an important one being that of China’s stance on the conflict.

Beijing has formed close ties with Moscow over the years. Under President Xi Jinping’s rule, China invested heavily in its relationship with Russia and considers it a key ally in counterbalancing against the United States and Europe as part of Beijing’s plans to disrupt a Western-centric world order.

Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin have met several times over the past decade, most recently in March, when the duo signed a “no limits” partnership just after China released a 12-point peace plan to resolve the war in Ukraine, a proposal Putin said he viewed “with respect.”

In May, China sent its special envoy for Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, to Ukraine as part of a 12-day tour of Kyiv, Warsaw, Paris, Berlin, Brussels, and Moscow in a bid to find common ground for an eventual political settlement of the war.

While China has showed its support to Moscow by deepening its economic and strategic partnership with Russia, it has to date, neither explicitly backed nor denounced Russia’s war efforts.

Balancing relationships

As the war rages on, Beijing is largely trying to balance its various strategic relationships, teetering along its business and strategic partnerships with US, Europe, and Russia.

“On the one hand, China values its ties with Russia, with which it shares mutual animosity toward US influence, but on the other it is also concerned about its image in Europe, which sees a just resolution of the Ukraine war as a core interest,” Lily McElwee, a fellow on Chinese studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Al Arabiya English.

China’s partnership with Russia has become particularly more important as its relations with advanced industrial democracies have soured and Beijing looks to diversify its trades, according to McElwee.

China therefore, seeks to deter Brussels and other European countries from “considering further moves to diversify their supply chains away from China and impose additional controls on dual-use technology transfer,” she added.

Moreover, Beijing is attempting to build its diplomatic influence among developing states and emerging powers, and as part of that it needs to be seen as a responsible player in the war in Ukraine, which alongside ensuing actions has magnified economic issues in many of these countries.

Beijing is actively trying to show that it is taking steps to deescalate the conflict, but so far it has achieved no concrete milestone with Putin or Ukraine, despite Xi’s close ties to the former.

“The problem for China is that it’s efforts so far have proven unsatisfactory to Ukraine and Europe,” McElwee said. “It’s 12-point position paper suggests a political settlement as soon as possible, but that means it would lock in Russian territorial gains.”

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Xi has also kept an open dialogue with Ukraine. Beijing even showed support for Kyiv’s claim of reinstating its 1991 territorial integrity at a Europe-China Business Summit in June, which includes Crimea – a peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014, sending out signals that it is willing to take steps to end the war.

Beijing has adopted a rather neutral position on the conflict as it continues trade relations with Russia but has so far not sent any military aid to Moscow – a balancing act to protect Chinese interests.

Continued neutrality

China continues to maintain a neutral stance on the war, but it might find it difficult going forward as the war sees intense moves from NATO to support Ukraine and levy sanctions against Russia, along with unprecedent events unfolding in Moscow itself.

The recent unsuccessful coup against Putin attempted by his trusted Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, exposes the volatility of the situation in Russia and the high risks for Beijing given Xi’s close ties to Putin and the broader threat in China’s backyard – it shares a more than 2600-mile border with Russia.

Beijing has remained relatively quiet about the rapid developments inside Russia. Post the failed mutiny, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a brief statement referring to the attack as Russia’s “internal affair” and expressed Chinese support for “Russia in maintaining national stability.”

China has however, warned the Kremlin against nuclear escalation, expressed concern for the impact of the war on civilians and called for the cessation of hostilities, according to Patricia Kim, a foreign policy expert at the Center for East Asia Policy Studies.

In a commentary article published on the Brookings Institution website, Kim writes while “Beijing has no desire to see Putin’s downfall … it is also unlikely to take extreme steps to help Kremlin in ways that could directly undermine China’s own national interests.”

China has managed to avoid major sanctions by remaining neutral and mostly abstaining from sending any direct military aid to Russia.

At this critical juncture in the war, Beijing appears careful not to overstep its bounds – it is willing to continue tacitly supporting Russia, but only to the extent that it remains beneficial for Beijing, keeps Europe in play and does not provoke sanctions from the West.

However, it remains to be seen if the recent upheaval in Russia and NATO’s loud backing for Ukraine at the Vilnius summit will nudge China to take a stronger position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict or if it will continue to monitor the war as it unfolds, under the guise of neutrality.

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Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

-wam

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At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

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US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM

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