World

What would happen if Ukraine joined NATO?

Ukraine stepped up its efforts to join NATO after Russia invaded last year, arguing that the security assurances given by Moscow, Washington, and London when it relinquished its nuclear arsenal to Russia in 1994 were clearly worthless.
While eastern European countries say some sort of a road map should be offered to Kyiv at a NATO summit in Vilnius on Tuesday and Wednesday, the United States and Germany are wary of any move that might take the alliance closer to war with Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has cited NATO’s expansion towards Russia’s borders over the past two decades as a key reason for his decision to send tens of thousands of troops into neighboring Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.
Any expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization must be agreed to by all 31 members, and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has already ruled out a formal invitation for Kyiv at the summit.
Following are the steps that Ukraine has taken on its way to NATO membership, a possible compromise over the next steps — and Russia’s view of the developments.

An unmapped path

In 2008, NATO agreed at a Bucharest summit that Ukraine — which was part of the Moscow-ruled Soviet Union until its 1991 demise — could eventually join the alliance.
But NATO leaders did not give Kyiv a so-called Membership Action Plan (MAP) laying out a road map for bringing it closer to the bloc. Moscow then illegally annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and backed separatist proxies in eastern Ukraine.
In a rare visit to Kyiv this April, Stoltenberg said Ukraine’s “rightful place” was in NATO but later made clear it would not be able to join while the war with Russia, whose forces now occupy more of Ukraine’s east and south, rages on.
At the start of June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his nation understood this position, but at the end of the month he repeated calls for Ukraine to receive a “political invitation” to NATO at the summit.
Under the MAP process followed by other former communist countries in eastern
Europe, candidates have to prove they meet political, economic and military criteria and are able to contribute militarily to NATO operations.
Since 1999, most countries aiming to join NATO have participated in a MAP although this procedure is not mandatory: Finland and Sweden, formerly neutral states which worked closely with NATO, were invited to join the alliance directly.
It is unclear what Ukraine’s path to membership will look like as more and more countries, Britain, and Germany amongst them, suggest skipping the MAP process.

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With such a move, NATO could address demands by Kyiv and its allies in eastern Europe to go beyond the language of the 2008 Bucharest summit agreement without offering Ukraine an actual invitation or timetable.
Ukraine’s military has taken major steps towards NATO standards since Russia’s all-out invasion. The process is accelerating as its Soviet-built arms and ammunition gradually run out and the West trains Ukrainian troops according to NATO standards and sends more and more advanced weaponry.

Why is Ukrainian membership so sensitive?

A mutual assistance clause lies at the heart of the alliance, which was formed in 1949 with the primary aim of countering the risk of a Soviet attack on allied territory.
It is cited as one of the main reasons why Ukraine cannot join NATO while in conflict with Russia, as this might immediately draw the alliance into an active war.
The clause, Article 5 of NATO’s Washington Treaty, states that an attack on one ally is considered an attack on all allies.
Stoltenberg has made clear that, while NATO must discuss options for giving Ukraine security assurances for the time after the war, security guarantees under Article 5 will only be provided to full members of the alliance.
The Kremlin portrays the expansion as evidence of Western hostility to Russia — something Western powers deny, saying the alliance is wholly defensive in nature.
Moscow has said it would cause problems for many years to come if Ukraine joined NATO and has warned of an unspecified response to ensure its security.

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World

Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

-wam

World

At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

World

US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM