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Jordan in debt to China for new power plant, concern over Beijing’s growing influence


Jordan’s Attarat power plant was envisioned as a landmark project promising to provide the desert kingdom with a major source of energy while solidifying its relations with China.

But weeks after its official opening, the site, a sea of black, crumbly rock in the barren desert south of Jordan’s capital, is instead a source of heated controversy.

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Deals surrounding the plant put Jordan on the hook for billions of dollars in debt to China — all for a plant that is no longer needed for its energy, because of other agreements made since the project’s conception.

The result is fueling tensions between China and Jordan and causing grief for the Jordanian government as it tries to contest the deal in an international legal battle.

As Chinese influence grows in the Middle East and America withdraws, the $2.1 billion shale oil station has come to characterize China’s wider model that has burdened many Asian and African states with crippling debt and served as a cautionary tale for the region.

“Attarat is a representation of what the Belt and Road Initiative was and has become,” said Jesse Marks, a nonresident fellow at the Washington-based Stimson Center, referring to China’s scheme to build global infrastructure and boost Beijing’s political sway.
“Jordan evolves as an interesting case study not for China’s success in the region but for how China engages in middle-income countries,” he said.

First conceived some 15 years ago as a way to fulfill national ambitions of energy independence, the Attarat shale oil plant is now causing anger in Jordan because of its enormous price tag. If the original agreement holds, Jordan would have to pay China a staggering $8.4 billion over 30 years to buy the electricity generated by the plant.

Laborers flown from rural China toil in the shadow of the giant station, some 100 kilometers (60 miles) south of Amman.

When Shi Changqing arrived in the Jordanian desert earlier this year from the Jilin province in China’s northeast, fears were mounting in the workers’ dormitories that the project could grind to a halt, leaving everyone in the lurch, the 36-year-old welder said.

“It’s very strange to feel that, being from China, you are not wanted here,” he said.

With its meager natural resources in a region awash with oil and gas, Jordan seemed to have drawn a losing ticket. Then in the 2000s, it struck shale oil trapped in the black rock that underlies the country. With the fourth-largest concentration of shale oil in the world, Jordan had high hopes for a big pay-off.

In 2012, the Jordanian Attarat Power Company proposed to the government to extract shale oil from the desert and build a plant using it to provide 15 percent of the country’s electricity supply.

The proposal fit the government’s intensifying desire for energy self-sufficiency. But extraction proved expensive, risky and technologically challenging.

As the project lagged, Jordan struck a $15 billion agreement to import vast amounts of natural gas at competitive prices from Israel in 2014. Interest in Attarat waned.

Attarat Power Co. CEO Mohammed Maaitah said he pitched the project the world over — from the United States and Europe to Japan and South Korea. No one bit, he said.

To Jordan’s surprise, Chinese banks offered Jordan over $1.6 billion in loans to finance the plant in 2017. A Chinese state-owned firm, Guangdong Energy Group, bought a 45 percent stake in the Attarat Power Co., turning the white elephant into the largest private enterprise to come out of President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative outside China, according to the company.

Guangdong Energy Group did not respond to requests for comment.

The investment was part of China’s wider push into an Arab world hungry for foreign investment, experts say. The money for large infrastructure projects came with few political strings attached.

“China doesn’t bring with it the baggage of the United States in that we actually have some concern about democratic processes, transparency, corruption,” said David Schenker, a former US assistant secretary of state for Middle East policy. “For authoritarian states, there’s some appeal in China.”

As talk grew of American unreliability, China turned to acquiring strategic assets in the Middle East, even in economically troubled states. It bought lots of Iraqi oil, tendered a port in northern Lebanon and poured money into President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi’s new capital in Egypt.

With Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in 2017 gaining the upper hand in his country’s civil war, China had an interest in investing in the Attarat project in neighboring Jordan as a springboard, anticipating a Syrian reconstruction boom that could unlock billions of dollars in investments, experts say.

Under their 30-year power purchase deal, Jordan’s state-run electricity company will have to buy electricity from the now effectively Chinese-led Attarat at an exorbitant rate that means the Jordanian government would lose $280 million annually, the treasury estimated. To cover the payments, Jordan would have to raise electricity prices for consumers by 17 percent, energy experts said — a severe blow to an economy already saddled with debt and inflation.

The extent of losses to China appalled the Jordanian government. Jordan’s Ministry of Energy launched international arbitration against Attarat Power Co. in 2020 “on the grounds of gross unfairness.”

When asked why Jordan had agreed to such a lopsided contract to begin with, Jordan’s Ministry of Energy declined to comment, as did the National Electricity Co. As of June, hearings were being held at an arbitration tribunal of the Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce.

Musa Hantash, a geologist on the parliamentary energy committee, described the deal as the natural outcome of corruption and a lack of technical expertise.

“It’s very difficult to convince these big companies to invest in Jordan. There are things to help certain people make a profit,” he said, without elaborating.

American officials portrayed the Attarat contract as a case of Beijing’s “debt trap diplomacy.”

The Chinese Foreign Ministry declined to comment on the Attarat project. But it defended Beijing’s investment in developing countries, denying allegations it ensnares partners in debt and arguing that China never compels “others to borrow from us forcibly.”

“We never attach any political strings to loan agreements,” the ministry said, urging international financial institutions to help provide debt relief.

Attarat Power said it expects a decision in the case later this year. Rulings by the world business organization are legally binding and enforceable.

Maaitah and other company officials dismissed Jordan’s claims of unjustly inflated prices, accusing Jordan of backtracking on its agreement due to anti-China sentiment.

Since the first of two power units went live last fall, the Jordanian government has paid only half its monthly dues, Maaitah said.

In Jordan and other poorer Arab states allied with the US, the pace of Chinese investment in recent years has slowed.

Faced with pushback abroad and rising concerns at home, China is shifting its approach in the region, said Amman-based China expert Samer Khraino, focusing on the oil-rich Arabian Gulf. Wealthy states like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have no issue paying back China’s big loans.

For now, Jordan appears unwilling to take any more chances with China.

In May, Jordan’s telecommunications company Orange signed a new agreement for 5G equipment. It had long been a customer of Huawei, the Chinese telecoms giant under American sanctions.

This time, it chose Nokia.

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Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

-wam

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At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

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US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM

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