World

Explainer: Russia’s plan to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus

Russian President Vladimir Putin in March announced a plan to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, Moscow’s first move of such warheads outside Russia since the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union.

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What is known about the deployment?

What did Putin say?

Putin’s nuclear deployment is a message to the West that he will not back down over the Ukraine war.

Putin made the announcement, almost as an afterthought, in an interview with state television Kremlin correspondent Pavel Zarubin that was first posted on Telegram on March 25.

Putin said the trigger for the decision to deploy in Belarus was an announcement by Britain that it would supply depleted uranium munitions to Ukraine. The Wall Street Journal reported on June 13 that the US was also set to approve depleted uranium tank rounds for Ukraine.

Belarus said the deployment was in answer to the West’s “aggressive policy” and that it was aimed at forcing the West’s leaders to think before escalating.

What weapons will be deployed and where?

Putin said that “tactical” nuclear weapons – so called as they are designed for battlefield use – would be sent to Belarus but did not say exactly which warheads would be deployed or where.

Lukashenko said the warheads are three times more powerful than the atomic bombs the US dropped on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945.

The Hiroshima bomb, made from highly enriched Uranium-235, was about 16 kilotons (equivalent to 16,000 tons of TNT), while the Nagasaki bomb, made from plutonium-239, was about 21 kilotons, according to the World Nuclear Association.

If Lukashenko is correct, the Russian warheads would have a yield of about 48 to 63 kilotons each. Russia has about 1,816 non-strategic nuclear warheads, according to a Bulletin of Atomic Scientists’ analysis of Russia’s nuclear weapons.

Putin said Iskander mobile short-range ballistic missiles, which can deliver nuclear warheads, had already been handed over to Belarus. Russian sources say the Iskander has a range of 500 kilometer (310 miles).

Putin also said 10 Belarusian aircraft had been adapted to carry the warheads. Belarus said Su-25 aircraft had been adapted to carry the warheads. The Sukhoi-25 jet has a range of up to 1,000 kilometer (621 miles), according to Russian sources.

The Federation of American Scientists has said the weapons could be based at Lida air base, 40 kilometer (25 miles) from the Lithuanian border.

If so, the delivery vehicles could potentially reach most of Ukraine, almost all of eastern Europe, including the Baltic states, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Czech Republic, Romania, a swathe of Germany, as well as some of Denmark, Sweden and Finland. Cities such as Berlin and Stockholm would be in range.

When?

Putin said Russia would finish the construction of a special storage facility in Belarus on July 7-8 and the weapons would be deployed soon afterwards.

Lukashenko has made different comments. He seemed to indicate last month that the weapons were already on the move while on June 13 he said the weapons would be deployed in “several days”.

He has also said that there could be “nuclear weapons for everyone” who joined the Russia-Belarus union. In a video published on June 14, Lukashenko has said his country had started taking delivery of Russian tactical nuclear weapons

Who controls them?

Putin said Russia would remain in control of the weapons just as the US controls its own tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Europe.

The US has had nuclear weapons deployed in Europe since the 1950s at NATO bases.

Putin has repeatedly raised concerns about the 200 US B61 tactical nuclear warheads deployed at bases in Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Turkey.

Those US warheads are kept in vaults at air bases and the US keeps the Permissive Action Link (PAL) codes used to arm them.

Russia’s nuclear weapons are controlled and transported by the 12th Main Directorate of the defense ministry (12th GUMO).

Nuclear risks?

After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the US went to enormous lengths to ensure that the Soviet nuclear weapons stationed in Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan were returned to Russia – which inherited the Soviet nuclear arsenal.

By putting nuclear weapons back in Belarus, Putin is showing that the architecture of post-Cold War nuclear arms control is crumbling.

What is the US/NATO response?

The US has criticized Putin’s nuclear deployment but has said it has no intention of altering its posture on strategic nuclear weapons and also that it has not seen any signs Russia is preparing to use a nuclear weapon.

The State Department said on March 27 that speaking candidly, it condemned the announcement of the deployment. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on April 18 that Putin’s decision was irresponsible.

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World

Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

-wam

World

At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

World

US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM