World

War of words that rocked US-Saudi rapport cools as oil steadies

The US and Saudi Arabia are looking beyond last year’s oil spat to focus on billions of dollars-worth of defense and aviation deals and potential nuclear cooperation.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Saudi Arabia this week is the latest sign of improving relations, with collaboration also underway on Sudan, Ukraine and space.

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Joe Biden’s administration has expressed eagerness to repair ties with Riyadh, once one of Washington’s closest allies in the Middle East. That marks a change from the rancor in October, when the OPEC+ cartel of oil producers — led by the Saudis and Russia — decided to cut output, triggering higher prices a month before US mid-terms in which inflation was a key issue.

But with crude prices down sharply since then, the two countries appear to be moving past their feud — even as Saudi Arabia plans to make an extra 1 million barrel-a-day oil supply cut in July. The indications are that major defense and aviation contracts, wariness over China’s moves into the Middle East and a press for Saudi-Israel normalization are now more important for Washington.

“I don’t think the Biden administration wants to revert to last October’s war of words and will try to downplay the decision,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official, referring to the latest output cut, which only caused a small rise in oil prices on Monday.

At stake for the US are Saudi orders worth at least $265 billion from America’s defense and aviation industry giants. Boeing Co. is said to be working to land an additional deal to sell at least 150 of its 737 Max jetliners to state-backed Riyadh Air. There’s also $55 billion in investment and trade between the two countries.

Signs of a Saudi-US thaw include officials from both sides working together to convince warring parties in Sudan to call a truce. And last month a top Pentagon official, Mara Karlin, welcomed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s participation at an Arab summit held in Saudi Arabia. She called on other allies to show support for Kyiv’s defense against Russia’s invasion.

In outer space, one of America’s most experienced astronauts accompanied two Saudis, including the first Saudi woman to undertake such a mission, to the International Space Station after nearly a year training in the US.

New ambassador

Washington appointed Michael Ratney as its first ambassador to Riyadh in more than two years in March, a sign of its determination to put the US-Saudi relationship on a new footing.

But disagreements remain. Arguably the thorniest is that Saudi Arabia wants a civilian nuclear program that includes domestic uranium enrichment. The kingdom is prepared to proceed even without US blessing, according to several US and Saudi analysts who have discussed the matter with Saudi officials.

The US, which has been working for years to contain Iran’s atomic activities, sees enrichment as a threat to its own national security.

“America has been given the right of first refusal for nuclear cooperation,” said Ali Shihabi, a Saudi author and commentator who is briefed by Saudi officials. Yet Riyadh is also holding parallel negotiations, he said, including with the Russians and Chinese, who are helping Saudi Arabia map uranium deposits.

US officials are alarmed by China’s forays into the Middle East, though an increasingly assertive and independent Saudi leadership sees matters differently.

“We are tied with China in many ways,” Saudi Investment Minister Khalid Al-Falih said last month.

The kingdom ships more crude to China than any other country, with sales totaling roughly $4.5 billion in April, according to Bloomberg calculations. Saudi Arabia’s trade with China almost equals that of the US and European Union combined.

Israel and enrichment

To counter China, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met with the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in early May and has pushed for Saudi Arabia’s integration into new alliances that include India and potentially Israel.

Publicly, Saudi Arabia has said an independent Palestinian state is a precondition to recognizing Israel. Privately, it has asked for firm defense and security guarantees from the US, access to top-notch US weaponry and a green light for the nuclear program including domestic enrichment, according to analysts who met with senior Saudi officials.

Uranium enrichment “is a significant priority of theirs but it’s the toughest issue of all,” said Mark Dubowitz, head of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, in an interview after meeting Saudi officials in April.

On Monday, Israel’s energy minister said he was opposed to Saudi Arabia developing a civilian nuclear program.

The State Department, US Embassy in Riyadh and a Saudi Foreign Ministry official did not respond to requests for comment.

Vision 2030

Developing a nuclear-energy program is a pillar of Vision 2030, Prince Mohammed’s plan to diversify the economy away from oil.

The Saudis want to export processed uranium to other countries and use it to run local power plants. They aren’t keen to sign an agreement similar to one concluded with neighboring United Arab Emirates, which vowed to forgo enrichment and reprocessing in return for access to technology, according to five people who have discussed the matter with Saudi officials.

“We do not want to see the spread of enrichment,” Pranay Vaddi, the National Security Council’s senior director for arms control and non-proliferation, said in a recent interview. “That will always be the case.”

Improving US-Saudi ties and US concerns over China’s involvement in the kingdom’s nuclear program could spur Washington to find a compromise with Riyadh, according to Karen Young, senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.

“Like everything else, when China enters a negotiation, the US pays more attention,” she said.

Pentagon official outlines ‘paradigm shift’ in US defense approach to Middle East

World

At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

World

US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM

World

TRENDS Explores Cooperation with Indonesia’s BNPT and Launches Indonesian Edition of a Book

On its first day in Jakarta, Indonesia, as part of the third leg of its Asian research
tour, TRENDS Research ‘ Advisory met with the Indonesian National Counter
Terrorism Agency (BNPT). The discussion focused on the role of think tanks in
combating terrorism and extremist ideologies, as well as potential areas for
cooperation and partnership in specialized research and strategic studies.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS, presented the center’s
intellectual and research efforts in this field, emphasizing the crucial role think
tanks play in refuting the arguments of extremist groups.
TRENDS researchers also showcased the Encyclopedia of the Muslim
Brotherhood, a project comprising 35 books, with 12 already published and
translated into multiple languages.
During the discussion, TRENDS launched the Indonesian translation of the 11th
book in the encyclopedia, titled “The Concept of the State According to the
Muslim Brotherhood”
The book highlights the Muslim Brotherhood’s adversarial stance, since its
inception, toward the Arab states, viewing them as an obstacle to the group’s ascent
to power. The group opposed the modern principles upon which these states were
built, considering them incompatible with its unique interpretation of Islam, which
the group claimed to exclusively embody.
The discussion also featured the introduction of the Muslim Brotherhood
International Power Index (MBIPI), the first of its kind globally. Compiled

annually by TRENDS, the index tracks and measures the global influence and
strength of the Muslim Brotherhood.
TRENDS researchers were briefed by BNPT officials on the agency’s work, vision,
and achievements. The BNPT representatives praised TRENDS’ research efforts
and expressed a strong desire to establish constructive cooperation between the two
sides to enhance efforts in countering terrorism and extremist ideologies.
The discussion between TRENDS and BNPT underscored the importance of
mutual cooperation in this field and other research areas, fostering research
excellence and knowledge dissemination.
Both sides agreed to maintain communication with the goal of signing a
memorandum of understanding and cooperation.