The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+ which pumps around 40 percent of the world’s crude, agreed on a new oil output deal on Sunday.
Saudi Arabia, the group’s biggest producer, will make a deep cut to its output in July on top of a broader OPEC+ deal to limit supply into 2024 as the group faces flagging oil prices.
A surprise announcement by OPEC+ in April to deepen production cuts helped to raise prices by about $9 a barrel to above $87 per barrel in the days followed.
Yet benchmark crude prices have shed those gains since, with Brent futures on Monday trading at just under $78 a barrel.
On Sunday, in addition to extending the existing OPEC+ cuts of 3.66 million barrels per day (bpd), the group agreed to reduce overall production targets from January 2024 by a further 1.4 million bpd to a combined output of 40.46 million bpd.
The changes, however, included lowered targets for Russia, Nigeria and Angola simply to bring them into line with current production levels.
Here are the main reasons why OPEC+ cut output:
Concerns about weak global demand
Data from China has aroused fears that the economic recovery after coronavirus lockdowns by world’s second-largest oil consumer is losing steam.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has also pointed to “interference with market dynamics,” a Russian expression to describe a Western price cap on Russian oil.
Fears of another banking crisis in recent months have led investors to sell out of riskier assets such as commodities with oil prices falling to near $70 per barrel from a peak of $139 in March 2022.
A global recession could lead to lower oil prices.
Oil prices also recently came under pressure from concerns about US debt ceiling negotiations, though fears of a debt default by the world’s biggest oil consumer have abated since a bipartisan deal was sealed last week.
Punishing speculators
The planned cuts will also punish oil short sellers betting on oil price declines.
In 2020, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman warned traders against betting heavily in the oil market, saying that those who gamble on the oil price would be “ouching like hell.”
He repeated his warning ahead of Sunday’s meeting, telling speculators to “watch out” which many market watchers and investors interpreted as a signal that OPEC+ could consider further output cuts.
US output rising
US crude oil production is set to rise by 5.1 percent to 12.53 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 and by 1.3 percent to 12.69 million bpd in 2024, according to government forecasts.
This compares with around 10 million bpd as recently as 2018.
Meanwhile, Saudi’s energy ministry said the country’s output, the biggest chunk of OPEC+ production, would drop to 9 million barrels per day (bpd) in July from around 10 million bpd in May, in its biggest reduction in years.
Saudi output is set to rebound to around 10 million bpd from August, unless market conditions prompt the kingdom to extend cuts.
Russia, the world’s third-biggest oil producer, is targeting production of around 9.5 million bpd until the end of the year and 9.3 million bpd next year.
Tensions with Washington
Additional cuts from OPEC+ could drive tensions with leading consuming nations that are trying to fight inflation.
Washington called OPEC+’s action in April inadvisable.
The West has repeatedly criticized OPEC for manipulating prices and siding with Russia despite the war in Ukraine.
The United States is considering passing legislation known as NOPEC, which would allow the seizure of OPEC’s assets on US territory if market collusion is proven.
OPEC+ has criticized the International Energy Agency, the West’s energy watchdog for which the United States is the biggest financial donor, for advocating oil stocks releases last year. The IEA had argued these were necessary to bring down prices given concerns that sanctions would disrupt Russian supply.
The IEA’s predictions of price strength never materialized, prompting OPEC+ sources to say it was politically driven and designed to help boost US President Joe Biden’s ratings.
The United States, which released most stocks, said it would buy back some oil in 2023, but later ruled that out.
OPEC observers also say the group needs nominal oil prices to be higher because money printing by the West in recent years has lowered the value of the US dollar, the currency in which oil is traded.
Abu Dhabi Overtakes Oslo for Sovereign Wealth Fund Capital in Global SWF’s First City Ranking
Today, industry specialist Global SWF published a special report announcing a new global ranking of cities according to the capital managed by their Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs). The findings show that Abu Dhabi is the leading city that manages the most SWF capital globally, thanks to the US$ 1.7 trillion in assets managed by its various SWFs headquartered in the capital of the UAE. These include the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), Mubadala Investment Company (MIC), Abu Dhabi Developmental
Holding Company (ADQ), and the Emirates Investment Authority (EIA). Abu Dhabi now ranks slightly above Oslo, home to the world’s largest SWF, the Government Pension Fund (GPF), which manages over US$ 1.6 trillion in assets. Abu Dhabi and Oslo are followed by Beijing (headquarters of the China Investment Corporation), Singapore (with GIC Private and Temasek Holdings), Riyadh (home to the
Public Investment Fund), and Hong Kong (where China’s second SWF, SAFE
Investment Corporation, operates from). Together, these six cities represent two thirds
of the capital managed by SWFs globally, i.e., US$ 12.5 trillion as of October 1, 2024.
For the past few decades, Abu Dhabi has grown an impressive portfolio of institutional
investors, which are among the world’s largest and most active dealmakers. In addition
to its SWFs, the emirate is home to several other asset owners, including central banks,
pension funds, and family offices linked to member of the Royal Family. Altogether, Abu
Dhabi’s public capital is estimated at US$ 2.3 trillion and is projected to reach US$ 3.4
trillion by 2030, according to Global SWF estimates.
Abu Dhabi, often referred to as the “Capital of Capital,” also leads when it comes to
human capital i.e., the number of personnel employed by SWFs of that jurisdiction, with
3,107 staff working for funds based in the city.
Diego López, Founder and Managing Director of Global SWF, said: “The world ranking
confirms the concentration of Sovereign Wealth Funds in a select number of cities,
underscoring the significance of these financial hubs on the global stage. This report
offers valuable insights into the landscape of SWF-managed capital and shows how it is
shifting and expanding in certain cities in the world.”
AM Best Briefing in Dubai to Explore State of MENA Insurance Markets; Panel to Feature CEOs From Leading UAE Insurance Companies
AM Best will host a briefing focused on the insurance markets of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) on 20 November 2024, at Kempinski Central Avenue in Dubai.
At this annual regional market event, senior AM Best analysts and leading executives
from the (re)insurance industry will discuss recent developments in the MENA region’s
markets and anticipate their implications in the short-to-medium term. Included in the
programme will be a panel of chief executive officers at key insurance companies in the
United Arab Emirates: Abdellatif Abuqurah of Dubai Insurance; Jason Light of Emirates
Insurance; Charalampos Mylonas (Haris) of Abu Dhabi National Insurance Company
(ADNIC); and Dr. Ali Abdul Zahra of National General Insurance (NGI).
Shivash Bhagaloo, managing partner of Lux Actuaries & Consultants, will his present
his observations in an additional session regarding implementation of IFRS 17 in the
region. The event also will highlight the state of the global and MENA region
reinsurance sectors, as well as a talk on insurance ramifications stemming from the
major United Arab Emirates floods of April 2024. The programme will be followed by a
networking lunch.
Registration for the market briefing, which will take place in the Diamond Ballroom at the
Kempinski hotel, begins at 9:00 a.m. GST with introductory comments at 9:30 a.m.
Please visit www.ambest.com/conference/IMBMENA2024 for more information or to
register.
AM Best is a global credit rating agency, news publisher and data analytics
provider specialising in the insurance industry. Headquartered in the United
States, the company does business in over 100 countries with regional offices in
London, Amsterdam, Dubai, Hong Kong, Singapore and Mexico City.
Future of Automotive Mobility 2024: UAE Leads the Charge in Embracing Digital Car Purchases and Alternative Drivetrains
-UAE scores show highest percentage among the region in willingness to purchase a car
completely online
– Openness to fully autonomous cars has grown to 60% vs previous 32%.
– More than half of UAE respondents in the survey intend to move to hybrid cars during
next car purchase, while less than 15% intend to move to fully electric car.
– UAE sees strong use of new mobility services such as ride-hailing (Uber, Careem, Hala
Taxi)
– The perceived future importance of having a car is not only increasing in UAE but is
higher than any other major region globally, even China
Arthur D. Little (ADL) has released the fourth edition of its influential Future of Automotive Mobility (FOAM) report, presenting a detailed analysis of current and future trends in the automotive industry. This year’s study, with insights from over 16,000 respondents across 25 countries, includes a comprehensive focus on the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The report examines car ownership, electric vehicles,
autonomous driving, and new mobility services within the UAE.
“The UAE is at the forefront of automotive innovation and consumer readiness for new mobility
solutions,” said Alan Martinovich, Partner and Head of Automotive Practice in the Middle East
and India at Arthur D. Little. “Our findings highlight the UAE’s significant interest in
transitioning to electric vehicles, favorable attitudes towards autonomous driving technologies,
and a strong inclination towards digital transactions in car purchases. These insights are critical
for automotive manufacturers and policymakers navigating the evolving landscape of the UAE
automotive market.”
Key Findings for the UAE: 1. Car Ownership:
o Over half of UAE respondents perceive that the importance of owning a car is
increasing, with the study showing the increase higher than any other major
region, including China.
o Approximately 80% of UAE respondents expressed interest in buying new (as
opposed to used) cars, above Europe and the USA which have mature used
vehicle markets
2. Shift to Electric and Hybrid Vehicles:
o While a high number of UAE respondents currently own internal combustion
engine (ICE) vehicles, more than half intend that their next vehicle have an
alternative powertrain, with significant interest in electric and plug-in hybrid
(PHEV) options. Less than 15% plan to opt for pure battery electric vehicles
(BEVs).
3. Emerging Mobility Trends:
o Ride-hailing services are the most popular new mobility option among UAE
residents, with higher usage rates than traditional car sharing and ride sharing.
The study indicates a strong openness to switching to alternative transport modes
given the quality and service levels available today.
4. Autonomous Vehicles:
o UAE consumers are among the most open globally to adopting autonomous
vehicles, with a significant increase in favorable attitudes from 32% in previous
years to 60% this year versus approximately 30% in mature markets. Safety
concerns, both human and machine-related, remain the primary obstacles to
broader adoption.
5. Car Purchasing Behavior and Sustainability:
o The internet has become a dominant channel for UAE residents throughout the car
buying process, from finding the right vehicle to arranging test drives and closing
deals. UAE car buyers visit dealerships an average of 3.9 times before making a
purchase, higher than any other region in the world, emphasizing the need for
efficient integration of online and offline experiences.
o Upwards of 53% of respondents from the region would prefer to ‘close the deal’
and complete the purchase of their car online, which is the highest for any region
in the world.
o Sustainability is a key factor cited by UAE consumers as influencing car choice.
The UAE scored among the top half of regions, highlighting the importance of
environmental considerations.
“Our study confirms the promising market opportunities for car manufacturers (OEMs) and
distributors in the UAE” commented Philipp Seidel, Principal at Arthur D. Little and co-Author
of the Global Study. “Consumers in the Emirates show a great and increasing appetite for cars
while being among the most demanding globally when it comes to latest vehicle technologies
and a seamless purchase and service experience.”
The comprehensive report, “The Future of Automotive Mobility 2024” by Richard Parkin and
Philipp Seidel, delves into global automotive trends and their impact on various regions,
including the UAE. This study is an invaluable tool for industry stakeholders seeking to navigate
and leverage the dynamic changes driving the future of mobility.