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Turkey’s run-off election: What’s at stake for Turkey and the rest of the world?


Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan aims to extend his rule into a third decade in an election on Sunday, with the momentum seen in his favor in the runoff vote after a first round showed him ahead of his challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
Already buoyed by a parliamentary majority won by his AK Party and its allies on May 14, Erdogan got another boost on Monday thanks to the endorsement of a nationalist politician who came third in the first round.
The election will decide not only who leads Turkey but also how it is governed, where its economy is headed, and the shape of its foreign policy. Kilicdaroglu, who received the endorsement of another far-right leader, is backed by a six-party alliance including his Republican People’s Party (CHP).
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Modern Turkey’s longest-serving leader, Erdogan has championed religious piety and low interest rates at home while asserting Turkish influence in the region and loosening the NATO member’s ties with the West.
The election takes place three months after earthquakes in southeast Turkey killed more than 50,000 people.

What is at stake for Turkey…

The most powerful leader since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk founded the modern Turkish republic a century ago, Erdogan and his AK Party have shifted Turkey away from Ataturk’s secular blueprint.

Erdogan has also centralized power around an executive presidency, based in a 1,000-room palace on the edge of Ankara, which sets policy on Turkey’s economic, security, domestic and international affairs.
Erdogan’s critics say his government has muzzled dissent, eroded rights and brought the judicial system under its sway, a charge denied by officials who say it has protected citizens in the face of unique security threats including a 2016 coup attempt.
Economists say Erdogan’s calls for low rates sent inflation soaring to a 24-year high of 85 percent last year, and the lira slumping to one tenth of its value against the dollar over the last decade.

…And the rest of the world?

Under Erdogan, Turkey has flexed military power in the Middle East and beyond, launching four incursions into Syria, waging an offensive against Kurdish militants inside Iraq and sending military support to Libya and Azerbaijan.
Turkey also saw a series of diplomatic clashes with regional powers Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Israel, as well as a stand-off with Greece and Cyprus over eastern Mediterranean maritime boundaries, until it changed tack two years ago and sought rapprochement with some of its rivals.

Turkey’s Republican People’s Party (CHP) Chairman and Presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu casts his ballot to vote in the presidential and parliamentary elections, in Ankara, Turkey, on May 14, 2023. (AFP)

Turkey’s Republican People’s Party (CHP) Chairman and Presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu casts his ballot to vote in the presidential and parliamentary elections, in Ankara, Turkey, on May 14, 2023. (AFP)

Erdogan’s purchase of Russian air defenses triggered US arms industry sanctions against Ankara, while his closeness to Russian President Vladimir Putin led critics to question Turkey’s commitment to the NATO Western defense alliance. Ankara’s objections to NATO membership applications from Sweden and Finland have also raised tensions.
However, Turkey also brokered a deal for Ukrainian wheat exports, underlining the potential role Erdogan has staked in efforts to end the Ukraine war. It is not clear that a successor would enjoy the same profile he has created on the world stage, a point he has made in the election campaign.

What is the opposition promising?

Two main opposition parties, the secularist CHP and center-right nationalist IYI Party, have allied themselves with four smaller parties under a platform that would reverse many of Erdogan’s signature policies.
They have pledged to restore independence to the central bank and reverse Erdogan’s unorthodox economic policies. They would also dismantle his executive presidency in favor of the previous parliamentary system, and send back Syrian refugees.
They also aim to improve relations with Western allies including the United States, and to return Turkey to the F-35 fighter jet program, from which it was blocked after buying Russian missile defenses.
Analysts believe the policies promised by the opposition could spur foreign investment.
Erdogan supported failed efforts to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, while hosting at least 3.6 million Syrian refugees who have become increasingly unwelcome at a time of economic hardship in Turkey.
Seeking a runoff boost from nationalist voters, Kilicdaroglu has in the last two weeks sharpened his anti-immigrant tone and promised to repatriate migrants.

Just how close is the race?

Kilicdaroglu got 44.9 percent in the first round compared to 49.5 percent for Erdogan, reflecting solid support despite a deep cost-of-living crisis and polls which had shown Kilicdaroglu in the lead. Pollsters later pointed to an unexpected surge in nationalist support at the ballot box to explain the result.
Erdogan has said a vote for him will ensure stability after his alliance secured a parliamentary majority.
Turkey’s four-decade conflict with the militant Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) has factored into the campaigning, along with the role of the mainstream Kurdish political parties.
While not part of the opposition alliance, the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) fiercely opposes Erdogan after a crackdown on its members in recent years and has endorsed Kilicdaroglu.
Erdogan’s attacks against Kilicdaroglu have included accusations, without evidence, of him winning support from the PKK, which has waged an insurgency since the 1980s in which more than 40,000 people have been killed. Kilicdaroglu has denied the accusations.
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Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

-wam

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At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

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US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM

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