World

Why Turkey’s president is strong election favorite despite economic turmoil

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has remained in power for 20 years by repeatedly surmounting political crises: mass protests, corruption allegations, an attempted military coup and a huge influx of refugees fleeing Syria's civil war. Now the Turkish people and economy are being pummeled by sky-high inflation, and many are still recovering from a devastating earthquake in February made worse by the government's slow response.

Yet Erdogan — a populist with increasingly authoritarian instincts — enters a runoff election Sunday as the strong favorite against opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu after falling just shy of victory in the first round of voting. So, even with a weak hand, what explains his longevity and wide appeal?

Erdogan, 69, has cultivated deep loyalty from conservative and religious supporters by elevating Islamic values in a country that has been defined by secularism for nearly a century.

He has tightened his grip on power by deploying government resources to his political advantage — lavishly spending on infrastructure to please constituents, and strictly controlling the media to silence criticism.

And he has swayed many Turks to his side by the way he navigates the world stage, showing that his country has an independent streak — and can flex its military — as it engages with the East and West.

Erdogan’s popularity at a moment of economic crisis also seems to be derived from the mere fact of his endurance; many people seem to want some stability, not more change, according to interviews with voters and analysts.

“During times of national crises such as this one, people usually rally around the leader,” said Gonul Tol, an analyst at the Middle East Institute in Washington. “The voters don’t have enough faith in the opposition’s ability to fix things.”

Already Turkey’s longest serving leader, Erdogan would stretch his rule into a third decade — until 2028 — if he were to secure a majority of votes in the runoff.

He received 49.5 percent of the votes in the first round — four percentage points ahead of Kilicdaroglu, a social democrat who has led the country's main opposition party since 2010. And on Monday Erdogan won the endorsement of the far-right candidate who finished in third place, giving him a boost heading into the runoff.

Kilicdaroglu, an economist and former member of parliament, is the joint candidate of a six-party coalition alliance. He has promised to undo Erdogan's economic policies, which experts say have stoked inflation, and to reverse Erdogan's increasingly authoritarian leanings, including crackdowns on free speech. But his campaign has struggled to entice Erdogan supporters.

“Look at the stage our country has arrived in the last 20 years. (The opposition) would take us back 50-60 years,” said Bekir Ozcelik, a security guard in Ankara, who voted for Erdogan. “There is no other leader in the world that measures up to Erdogan.”

What Ozcelik and many other supporters see in Erdogan is a leader who has shown that Turkey can be a major player in geopolitics.

Turkey is a key member of NATO because of its strategic location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, and it controls the alliance's second-largest army. Under Erdogan's rule, Turkey has proven to be an indispensable and, at times, troublesome NATO ally.

It vetoed Sweden's entry into NATO and purchased Russian missile-defense systems, prompting the United States to oust Turkey from a US-led fighter-jet project. Yet, together with the UN, Turkey brokered a vital deal that has allowed Ukraine to ship grain through the Black Sea to parts of the world struggling with hunger.

After civil war broke out in Syria in 2011, Erdogan embroiled Turkey by backing opposition fighters seeking to depose President Bashar Assad. The fighting triggered a surge of Syrian refugees that Erdogan has used as leverage against European nations, by threatening to open up Turkey's borders and swamp them with migrants. And Turkey now controls large swaths of territory in northern Syria, after a succession of military attacks aimed at Kurdish groups there affiliated with rebels that Turkey has outlawed.

Erdogan has boasted about Turkey’s military-industrial sector on the campaign trail citing homemade drones, aircraft and a warship touted as the world’s first “drone carrier” — and the message appeared to resonate with voters on May 14, analysts say.

On the domestic front, Erdogan has raised Islam's profile in country whose secular roots are fraying.

He has curbed the powers of the once staunchly secularist military and lifted rules that barred conservative women from wearing headscarves in schools and government offices. To further rally his conservative supporters, Erdogan has disparaged Kilicdaroglu and the opposition as supporting what he called “deviant” LGBTQ rights.

The biggest threat Erdogan faces at the moment is the economy. His primary method of attacking families' diminishing purchasing power has been to unleash government spending, which — along with lowering interest rates — only makes inflation worse, according to economists.

Erdogan has increased public-sector wages, boosted pensions and allowed millions of people to retire early. He has also introduced electricity and gas subsidies and wiped out some household debt.

He has also promised to spend whatever is necessary to reconstruct the vast quake-stricken areas. At each ground-breaking ceremony he attends, Erdogan says only his government can rebuild lives following the disaster that leveled cities and killed more than 50,000 in Turkey.

Erdogan’s party won 10 out of 11 provinces in the region affected by the quake, an area that has traditionally supported him — despite criticism that his government’s initial response to the disaster was slow.

Mustafa Ozturk, an Erdogan supporter in Ankara, said his standard of living has declined as a result of inflation. But the way he sees it, Turkey isn't the only country struggling with inflation since the pandemic.

“It isn’t Erdogan’s fault,” he said. Ozturk said he would never vote against Erdogan, saying he felt “indebted” to him for bringing Islam more to the forefront of society.

Erdogan's message — and power — are amplified by his tight control over the media.

The state-owned broadcaster TRT Haber devoted more than 48 hours of airtime to Erdogan since April 1, compared with 32 minutes given to Kilicdaroglu, according to Ilhan Tasci, a member of Turkey’s radio and television watchdog.

Kilicdaroglu’s promise to repair the economy and uphold women’s rights to wear Islamic headscarves in schools simply did not resonate in the country’s conservative heartland.

“Kilicdaroglu changed the image of the (opposition) party, but Erdogan controls the narrative, so there is that fear factor” among conservative women who wear Islamic-style headscarves, Tol said. “They believe that if the opposition comes to power, they will be worse off.”

After Turkey’s pro-Kurdish party backed Kilicdaroglu, Erdogan portrayed the opposition as being supported by Kurdish “terrorists.” The opposition's efforts to refute this were rarely broadcast by the mainstream media.

Erdogan “meticulously crafted a run for victory that included leaning on state institutions, leaning on information control and demonizing the opposition as terrorists or (having) beliefs interpreted as insufficiently Muslim,” said Soner Cagaptay an expert on Turkey at the Washington Institute and an author of numerous books about Erdogan.

“The media switched the debate to how Turkey has become an industrial military giant under him. And it worked,” Cagaptay said.

During the first round of voting on May 14, Turkey also held legislative elections, in which Erdogan's alliance of nationalist and Islamist parties won a majority in the 600-seat parliament. That gives him an additional advantage in the second round, analysts say, because many voters are likely to back him to avoid a splintered government.

“The parliament is overwhelmingly with us,” Erdogan said last week in an interview with CNN-Turk. “If there is a stable administration, there will be peace and prosperity in the country.”

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World

US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM

World

TRENDS Explores Cooperation with Indonesia’s BNPT and Launches Indonesian Edition of a Book

On its first day in Jakarta, Indonesia, as part of the third leg of its Asian research
tour, TRENDS Research ‘ Advisory met with the Indonesian National Counter
Terrorism Agency (BNPT). The discussion focused on the role of think tanks in
combating terrorism and extremist ideologies, as well as potential areas for
cooperation and partnership in specialized research and strategic studies.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS, presented the center’s
intellectual and research efforts in this field, emphasizing the crucial role think
tanks play in refuting the arguments of extremist groups.
TRENDS researchers also showcased the Encyclopedia of the Muslim
Brotherhood, a project comprising 35 books, with 12 already published and
translated into multiple languages.
During the discussion, TRENDS launched the Indonesian translation of the 11th
book in the encyclopedia, titled “The Concept of the State According to the
Muslim Brotherhood”
The book highlights the Muslim Brotherhood’s adversarial stance, since its
inception, toward the Arab states, viewing them as an obstacle to the group’s ascent
to power. The group opposed the modern principles upon which these states were
built, considering them incompatible with its unique interpretation of Islam, which
the group claimed to exclusively embody.
The discussion also featured the introduction of the Muslim Brotherhood
International Power Index (MBIPI), the first of its kind globally. Compiled

annually by TRENDS, the index tracks and measures the global influence and
strength of the Muslim Brotherhood.
TRENDS researchers were briefed by BNPT officials on the agency’s work, vision,
and achievements. The BNPT representatives praised TRENDS’ research efforts
and expressed a strong desire to establish constructive cooperation between the two
sides to enhance efforts in countering terrorism and extremist ideologies.
The discussion between TRENDS and BNPT underscored the importance of
mutual cooperation in this field and other research areas, fostering research
excellence and knowledge dissemination.
Both sides agreed to maintain communication with the goal of signing a
memorandum of understanding and cooperation.

World

White House Partners with Monroe Capital to Launch New Strategy to Support U.S. Automotive Industry Growth Initiatives and American Autoworkers

The White House selected Monroe Capital
LLC (“Monroe”) to develop a first-of-its-kind investment strategy focused on supporting
businesses operating in the U.S. automotive supply chain. Along with the anticipated advisory
support of MEMA, The Vehicle Suppliers Association (“MEMA”) and the Alliance for
Automotive Innovation, Monroe intends to launch this new strategy (the “Drive Forward Fund
LP” or the “Fund”) to help address this key White House initiative. The Drive Forward Fund LP
will seek to raise up to $1 billion and focus on investing in companies that play a pivotal role in
fueling growth and innovation within the $1 trillion U.S. automotive industry.
Monroe will develop this White House inspired strategy to support small and medium-sized
companies operating within the automotive value chain that are essential to the growth and
modernization of the U.S. automotive industry. The Drive Forward Fund LP will target suppliers
and manufacturers, as well as other adjacent businesses that provide complementary products
and services to the industry. The mission of the Drive Forward Fund LP is to provide financial
support to the businesses that supply mission critical parts such as powertrain, body, drivetrain,
chassis, interiors, and electrical components, as well as complementary Software-as-a-Service
(“SaaS”) and other auto technology and business service providers that cater to the industry. The
Fund will also evaluate growth opportunities to invest in innovative companies in battery
component and subcomponent manufacturing and materials recycling. This entire ecosystem of
businesses is critical to ensuring the U.S. position at the forefront of the global automotive
market. In addition, Monroe believes the Drive Forward Fund LP will benefit the American
automotive industry, which should have a positive impact on workers as well as state and local
economies with jobs in the areas where these target companies are located.
Building on the announcement Vice President Harris issued in Detroit in May supporting growth
and jobs in the automotive industry, Monroe will seek to provide capital solutions to help
manufacturers, suppliers, and service providers modernize the key automotive supply chains;
including the clean vehicle supply chain, as well as support jobs in the automotive industry –
more than 9.7 million across the country. As part of its strategy, the Fund also intends to provide
companies access to funding for technology investments, including but not limited to
investments in the transition from internal combustion production to electric vehicles (“EVs”), as
well as the software offerings that will drive the industry’s shift from a purely transaction sales
model to a complete vehicle lifecycle. Major technological enhancements transforming the
industry include Software-Defined Vehicles (“SDV”), autonomous driving systems, smart
factories, and many other connected technologies. The Fund’s investments will intend to not
only allow these businesses to capitalize on the industry’s compelling growth tailwinds, but also
to navigate supply chain challenges and the rapidly evolving operating landscape.

Monroe intends to pair private investor capital with leverage, including low-cost government-
guaranteed leverage that Monroe hopes to obtain through applying for a U.S. Small Business
Administration (“SBA”) Small Business Investment Company (“SBIC”) license for the Fund.
“We believe this new Drive Forward Fund will be critical to catalyzing growth and innovation
within America’s automotive supply chain,” said Monroe’s Chairman and CEO, Ted Koenig.
“The Fund will have an opportunity to provide essential financial support to small and medium-
sized businesses and will help provide a consistent and reliable supply chain to the Original
Equipment Manufacturers (“OEMs”), Tier 1 auto manufacturers, and other auto industry
stakeholders. In addition, the Fund will strive to provide support to auto industry suppliers as
they become more competitive and remain local community anchors as they grow their
businesses to support key initiatives within the overall automotive industry. Monroe Capital is
honored to play a leading role in this new strategy.”
Alex Parmacek, Portfolio Manager for the Fund at Monroe, added “Looking ahead, we believe
the automotive industry is poised for transformative changes driven by advancements in electric
vehicles (“EVs”), hydrogen fuel cell technology, and autonomous driving systems, among
others. We believe a shift towards clean energy and sustainable vehicles can play a role in efforts
to reduce carbon emissions and create a more durable supply base for the OEMs and Tier I
suppliers. This Drive Forward Fund expects to play a pivotal role in supporting these
technological innovations, to help ensure that the U.S. remains at the forefront of automotive
technology and manufacturing.”
Bill Long, President and CEO of MEMA, stated, “MEMA is pleased to have a seat at the table in
our ongoing collaboration with the White House to address industry challenges associated with
the transition to advanced technology vehicles and to enhance manufacturing competitiveness in
the US. In this role, MEMA will continue to provide insights to ensure the supplier community is
best served going forward.”
John Bozzella, President and CEO, Alliance for Automotive Innovation said, “A successful
transformation to automotive electrification in the United States requires a cutting-edge
automotive supply chain that keeps the country competitive and underpins our economic and
national security. Automakers are investing billions in this transition and building electrified
vehicles in all makes and models, but you’ve got to remember the automotive supply chain is
made up of hundreds of companies – many small and medium-sized businesses – that have been
churning out components and parts for generations, support communities across the country, and
keep the wheels turning on the $1 trillion American auto business. Auto suppliers are essential to
this transformation, and that’s what is promising about the Drive Forward Fund. It’s an option
for smaller auto businesses to access private money to modernize and support the production of
the vehicles of today – and tomorrow. We’re glad to be part of the advisory council for this new
fund and provide the automaker perspective.”
The Drive Forward Fund plans to be advised by a council of experts from across the automotive
industry to help ensure capital is directed to small and medium-sized auto suppliers,
manufacturers, and service providers with ties to significant domestic manufacturing content.

Monroe anticipates the advisory council will include representatives from MEMA and Alliance
for Automotive Innovation, with support from the OEMs, consultants and business organizations
who recognize the importance of providing adequate liquidity and stability for the auto supply
chain and critical suppliers. With the expected commitment of strategic and financial investors,
along with support and counsel from key industry leaders, the Fund intends to invest in
businesses that align with White House’s pledge to ensure that the future of the automotive
industry is made in America by American manufacturers and American autoworkers in the
communities that have historically powered the industry.
For limited partner investors, the Fund will seek to generate attractive returns on investment
while targeting exposure to manufacturers and other business service providers, coupled with
compelling growth opportunities in the EV and clean energy markets and auto technology. The
Fund will be managed by Monroe, an asset management firm that was previously recognized by
the SBA as the SBIC Fund of the Year. As of July 1, 2024, Monroe, together with its affiliates,
has approximately $20 billion in assets under management in a diversified private credit platform
of 35+ investment vehicles, with more than 450 active portfolio investments, comprised of direct
lending and alternative credit funds, business software, real estate, venture debt, publicly traded
and private BDCs, separately managed accounts, and collateralized loan obligations. The firm
has more than 250 employees and is headquartered in Chicago and maintains 10 offices
throughout the United States and Asia.
The Fund intends to begin fundraising after progressing through the SBA licensing process.
SBIC licensed funds nationwide manage more than $43 billion in SBA-government guaranteed
and private capital, providing equity investment and long-term loans to small businesses in a
wide range of industries.