World

Russian arms sales to India stall due to fears over US sanctions

Russian deliveries of military supplies to India have ground to a halt as the countries struggle to find a payment mechanism that doesn’t violate US sanctions, according to Indian officials with knowledge of the matter.

Indian payments for weapons amounting to more than $2 billion have been stuck for about a year, and Russia has stopped supplying credit for a pipeline of about $10 billion worth of spare parts as well as two S-400 missile-defense system batteries that have yet to be delivered, according to the officials, who asked not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the issue.

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Russia is India’s biggest supplier of weapons needed to deter Pakistan and China.

India is unable to settle the bill in US dollars due to concerns about secondary sanctions, while Russia remains unwilling to accept rupees due to exchange-rate volatility, the officials said.

New Delhi also doesn’t want to complete the deal in Russian rubles due to concerns about being able to purchase enough on the open market at a fair rate, they said.

India’s government has proposed Moscow use the rupees from weapons sales to invest in Indian debt and capital markets to avoid stockpiling rupees, they added, but Vladimir Putin’s government doesn’t find that appealing.

One possible solution would be to use euros and dirhams, the currencies used to pay for Indian imports of discounted Russian crude, a senior Indian government official said.

However, using these currencies to pay for weapons could invite more scrutiny from the US over sanctions than oil, as well as pushing up costs due to unfavorable exchange rates for India.

Another option under discussion is a mechanism for Russia to offset purchases of Indian imports against the price of the weapons, one of the officials said. But this isn’t easy because Russia had a $37 billion trade surplus last year with India, its third-largest behind China and Turkey, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

India’s Ministry of Defense, Ministry of External Affairs, Finance Ministry and the Reserve Bank of India didn’t respond to phone calls or emailed requests for comment.

The Kremlin and Rosonboronexport, Russia’s state arms sale company, also didn’t respond to texts and emailed requests for comment.

The issue of payments for weapons has taken on more urgency of late, and dominated discussions when National Security Adviser Ajit Doval visited Moscow in January, the people said.

It also featured heavily in talks in Delhi this week between Russian Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov and India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, who said this week that the rupee settlement needed more work.

“There is also understandable concern about the trade imbalance,” Jaishankar told reporters. “We need to work together with our Russian friends on a very urgent basis on how to address that imbalance.”

India currently operates more than 250 Su-30 MKi Russian-made fighter jets, seven Kilo-class submarines and more than 1,200 Russian-made T-90 tanks — all of which are operational for another decade and need spare parts.

Three of five S-400 missile defense systems have already been delivered.

Air Force Hit

The Indian Air Force, which depends on a Russian fleet of fighters and helicopters, is among the worst hit from the disruption in supplies from Moscow, the people said.

It’s uncertain whether Russia can perform regular maintenance, they added, potentially leading to vulnerabilities along India’s borders with China and Pakistan.

The India-Russia relationship will come under further scrutiny when Prime Minister Narendra Modi hosts the Group of 20 leaders in September, during which the war will be a key focus.

That meeting might be holding India back from immediately ironing out the payment mechanism for weapons with Russia, the people said.

Russia remains India’s largest supplier of military hardware, though purchases have slowed by 19 percent in the last five years due to sanctions and increased competition from other manufacturing countries.

India has carefully calibrated its response to Russia’s war in Ukraine, calling for a cease-fire while abstaining from voting on United Nations resolutions condemning the invasion.

Modi will be meeting in the next few weeks with counterparts from the US and other industrialized nations.

These countries see India as a bulwark to China’s growing military and economic assertiveness, and have offered to provide defense equipment. But even so, it will take years to wean the nation off Russian weaponry while maintaining a credible defense posture.

While President Joe Biden’s administration has largely refrained from penalizing India for its dealings with Russia, including holding back on penalties for S-400 air defense system, it has taken some action.

Last September, a Mumbai-based petrochemical firm Tibalaji Petrochem was added to the sanctions list by the US Department of Treasury for buying petroleum products from Iran.

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World

Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

-wam

World

At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

World

US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM