World

Factbox: What is known about latest leak of US secrets

US national security agencies and the Justice Department are investigating the release of dozens of classified documents to assess the damage to national security and relations with allies and other countries, including Ukraine.

Here is what we know and do not know about what appears to be the gravest leak of US secrets in years:

Are the documents real?

US officials believe most of the materials are genuine. Some, however, appear to have been altered to show inflated US estimates for Ukrainian battlefield casualties since Russia invaded in February 2022, as well as understated numbers for Russian forces.

It is unclear which of the documents might have been salted with misinformation and if they could be part of a Russian misinformation operation or a US scheme to mislead Moscow about Kyiv's war plans.

What kinds of documents are they?

The documents, which are marked “Secret” or “Top Secret,” include sensitive briefing slides on how the war in Ukraine stood in February and March this year. On Monday the Pentagon said that the documents appear to be similar to the daily updates provided to its senior leaders as well as to other intelligence updates, though there appear to be some inaccuracies.

Classification markings on the materials include NONFORN, meaning they cannot be shared with foreign intelligence agencies.

The exceptions are materials also marked FVEY, or Five Eyes, referring to the spy services of the English-speaking nations of Canada, Britain, Australia and New Zealand. Materials marked that way would have been seen by thousands of people with security clearances.

But because not all of the documents are marked FVEY, US officials believe whoever leaked them could be American.

Some documents are additionally marked FISA, meaning they were collected under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, the law that governs the US monitoring of electronic communications.

How were the documents leaked?

US officials do not yet know how the documents found their way online.

Pictures of creased documents – suggesting that they might have been folded so they could be hidden before being removed from the top-secret spaces to which such materials are confined and photographed – were posted to social media sites.

Those platforms included Discord, an instant messaging platform popular with gamers, the online messaging board 4Chan, the encrypted Telegram global messaging app, and Twitter.

Although the documents only garnered widespread attention in the last few days, the open source investigation site Bellingcat said it had found evidence that the documents – or at least some of them – had appeared on social media as far back as March or even January.

In an article about the documents' “improbable journey,” Bellingcat traced the earliest references to the leak to a now-defunct Discord server and cited three former users as saying that a large number of documents had been shared there.

What do the documents say?

The documents cover a wide range of topics of interest to US policymakers, including:

– Ukraine: Details about Ukrainian air strikes, the country's air defense vulnerabilities, and even the size of some Ukrainian military units.

– Wagner group: Descriptions of a number of outreach efforts by the Russian mercenary group, including to Turkish “contacts,” Haitian government officials, and the organization's growing presence in Mali.

– Middle East: Updates related to Iran's nuclear activities as well as information about how the United Arab Emirates is in talks with Russia to help build a maintenance center for some weapons.

– China: Predictions about how China would respond to Ukrainian strikes inside Russia, along with details about British plans in the Indo-Pacific region.

– North Korea: Details about missile tests by Pyongyang and an assessment that a February parade likely oversold the ICBM threat to the United States.

– South America: Information about Brazilian officials' plan to visit Moscow in April to discuss a Ukraine mediation scheme.

– Africa: An assessment that France is likely to struggle to achieve security goals in west and central Africa.

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US Justice Department investigates secret documents leak

US searches for source of highly-classified intel leak

World

Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

-wam

World

At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

World

US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM