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Taiwan leader scrambles for allies in Central America visit


As Taiwan’s diplomatic partners dwindle and turn instead to rival China, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen is aiming to shore up ties with the self-governing island’s remaining allies during a trip this week to Central America.

Tsai touched down in Guatemala on Friday afternoon, walking from the plane along a red carpet alongside Guatemala’s foreign minister.

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In a speech addressed to leaders of Guatemala and Belize shortly before departing on her visit, Tsai framed the trip as a chance to show Taiwan’s commitment to democratic values globally.

“External pressure will not obstruct our resolution to go on the world stage. We will be calm, self-confident, we will not submit but also not provoke,” said Tsai, who will also meet with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in a stopover in the United States.

But the trip also is aimed to solidifying ties in Latin America as China funnels money into the region and pressures its countries to break off relations with the self-governed democratic island.

In Guatemala and Belize, Tsai is expected to bring an open checkbook. But in a region under growing Chinese influence, analysts say that Taiwan may already have lost the long game.

“These countries, they are symbolic. And I don’t think Taiwan wants to lose any of them,” said June Teufel Dreyer, a political scientist at University of Miami. “But if China is going to indulge in checkbook diplomacy, I don’t think Taiwan can compete and it knows it.”

The visit comes just days after Honduras became the latest country to break with Taiwan in favor of establishing ties with China.

Honduras follows in the footsteps of Nicaragua, El Salvador, the Dominican Republic, Panama and Costa Rica in ditching Taiwan. In some cases, China was said to have dangled hefty investment packages and loans in exchange for switching allegiances.

As the Asian superpower has sought to isolate Taiwan and expand its power on the global stage, Chinese trade and investment in Latin America has soared.

Between 2005 and 2020, the Chinese have invested more than $130 billion in Latin America, according to the United States Institute of Peace. Trade between China and the region has also shot up, and is expected to reach more than $700 billion by 2035.

Honduras’ move came in conjunction with the construction of a hydroelectric dam project built by the Chinese company SINOHYDRO with about $300 million in Chinese government financing.

It left Taiwan with no more than 13 official diplomatic partners. More than half of those are small countries in Latin America and the Caribbean: Belize, Guatemala, Paraguay, Haiti, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

At the same time Chinese influence has grown, lagging spending by the US — Taiwan’s primary ally and source of defensive weaponry — has caused its sway in Latin America to slip.

For decades, China has claimed Taiwan as its own territory to be brought under its control by force if necessary, but the Taiwanese public overwhelmingly favors the current state of de-facto independence.

China has spent a great amount of effort in its campaign to diplomatically isolate Taiwan ever since Tsai’s election in 2016, successfully convincing nine countries to break off relations with Taipei since she has been in office.

China’s government views Tsai and her independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party as separatists.

In recent months, tensions have only intensified as relations between Beijing and Washington have spiraled. As a result, regions like Central America have grown in geopolitical importance.

“While our policy has not changed, what has changed is Beijing’s growing coercion – like trying to cut off Taiwan’s relations with countries around the world,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a speech about China relations last year.

Guatemala and Belize are among those who have remained steadfast supporters of Taiwan, Guatemala’s government reaffirming in March its “recognition of Taiwan as an independent nation with which democratic values and mutual respect are shared.”

Yet analysts say their allegiance is also a political calculation.

Tiziano Breda, researcher at International Affairs Institute, said that position will likely be wielded politically, used as a potential shield against pressure from the US

The US government, for example, has been highly critical of the administration of President Alejandro Giammattei for not doing enough to crack down on corruption.

“It’s a card these countries wait to play,” Breda said.

Dreyer of University of Miami said many of Taiwan’s allies will use their relationship with both China and Taiwan as a “bargaining chip” to seek greater investment and monetary benefits from both countries.

She said in Ing-wen’s meetings with Guatemala and Belize, the president is likely to offer investment and development projects contingent on maintaining good relations with her country.

But Dreyer noted that given the power China wields on a world stage, it’s only a matter of time before the economic superpower pulls Taiwan’s final diplomatic partners onto their side.

The Chinese “are not only willing to wait, but eager to wait until they think the time is ripe,” Dreyer said. “They want the most auspicious moment possible.”

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Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

-wam

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At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

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US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM

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