World

Explainer: Can China broker peace between Russia and Ukraine?

Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to soon visit Russia’s Vladimir Putin and, according to media, hold a virtual meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy weeks after China proposed a 12-point plan for peace in Ukraine.

China’s foreign ministry has said it is in communication with both sides and, while it has not confirmed Xi’s plan for talks with either Putin or Zelenskyy, there is speculation that China may try to get the rivals to the negotiating table.

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Following are some of the issues China and others are likely to be taking into account as it considers prospects for peace in Ukraine.

Why would China try to mediate?

China has traditionally adhered to a principle of not interfering in other countries’ conflicts, especially the more distant ones.

But a peace deal struck in Beijing last week between Saudi Arabia and Iran highlights a Chinese aim to project itself as a responsible great power under Xi’s stewardship, analysts say.

“Xi would want to be seen on the global stage as a statesman whose influence at least equals that of the US leader,” said Wang Jiangyu, a law professor at City University of Hong Kong.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China February 4, 2022. (File photo: Reuters)

China is also eager to deflect criticism that when it comes to Ukraine, it has sided with the aggressor, Russia, which calls its invasion in February last year a “special military operation.”

Attempting to broker peace is a low-cost venture that can yield high returns for China, even if a quick breakthrough is highly unlikely, analysts say.

What is China’s proposal for peace?

China urged both sides to agree to a gradual de-escalation leading to a comprehensive ceasefire in its 12-point paper on the “political resolution of the Ukraine crisis.”

While the plan called for the protection of civilians and that the sovereignty of all countries be respected, China has refrained from condemning Russia for its invasion.

The plan got lukewarm welcomes in both Russia and Ukraine while the United States and NATO were skeptical.

Ukraine, which says it will only consider peace settlements after Russian troops leave Ukrainian territory, took issue with the plan for not stating that Russia should withdraw behind borders in place since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, but later said it was open to “parts of the plan.”

Russia said it would take a “nuanced study” of the plan but did not see any sign for a peaceful resolution for now.

The US said China presented itself publicly as neutral and seeking peace while at the same time reflected Russia’s “false narrative” about the war, provided it with non-lethal assistance and was considering lethal assistance. China denies that.

NATO said China did not have much credibility as a mediator on Ukraine.

President Joe Biden, right, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hug as they say goodbye at the Memorial Wall of Fallen Defenders of Ukraine in Russian-Ukrainian War, in Kyiv, Ukraine, Monday, Feb. 20, 2023. (AP)

What role could China play?

Analysts say it will be hard for China to get Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating table, unlike Saudi Arabia and Iran, which presented an easier diplomatic win.

“Saudi Arabia and Iran actually want to talk and improve relations, while Russia and Ukraine don’t, at least for now,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Washington-based Stimson Center.

However, Xi could act as a backchannel, Yun said, which could start momentum towards talks that for now seem unlikely with both sides hardening their stances in the grinding war.

A fruitless attempt by NATO member Turkey to host dialogue in Istanbul in the weeks after the war began last year underscored the difficulty.

What leverage does China have?

Some analysts say China is in a better position than Turkey to mediate because it has more leverage over Russia.

China is Russia’s most important ally and has been buying Russian oil and provided a market for Russian goods shunned by Western countries.

China also has some leverage over Ukraine, which would not want to torpedo the chances of Chinese support for its reconstruction, said Samuel Ramani, a Russia expert at Oxford University.

China expanded trade with Ukraine after Russia invaded Crimea in 2014 and did not recognize the annexed territory as Russian, he said.

“Most importantly, Zelenskiy does not want to provoke China so much that they start arming Russia,” Ramani said.

Can China be an honest broker?

China’s close ties with Russia mean its role will be viewed with deep skepticism. Days before Russia invaded Ukraine, China and Russia announced a “no-limits” partnership.

While China has called for peace since the beginning of the war, it has largely reflected the Russian position that NATO threatened Russia with its eastward expansion while Ukraine’s Western allies fanned the flames of war by supplying it with tanks and missiles.

Andrew Small, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, said China wants to be seen as doing its part for peace but is not prepared to press Putin to stop the war and sacrifice its relations with Russia.

“Beijing hasn’t thrown its weight around nor sought to coerce Russia into doing anything,” he said.

World

Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

-wam

World

At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

World

US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM