World

Israel’s window to strike Iran narrows as Putin enters equation

Iran is seeking sophisticated new air defense systems from Russia that Israeli officials believe will narrow the window for a potential strike on Tehran’s nuclear program, according to people familiar with the matter.

The prospect of Iran getting the systems, the S-400s, would accelerate a decision on a possible attack, people in Israel and the US with knowledge of the discussions said.

Russia hasn’t said publicly if it will supply the weapons, but Moscow and Tehran have drawn closer since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. It would take less than two years for the S-400s to be operational.

For all the latest headlines, follow our Google News channel online or via the app.

“The longer you wait, the harder that becomes,” Netanyahu said of a strike on Iran at a security conference in Tel Aviv last week. “We’ve waited very long. I can tell you that I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.”

Such open threats — daily occurrences now in Israel — are a complex mix of intent and messaging aimed at Tehran and Washington although Israel bombed nuclear sites in Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007. An open military conflict with Iran could trigger an unparalleled regional conflagration affecting global oil supplies.

Russia has offered Iran “unprecedented defense cooperation, including on missiles, electronics and air defense and may provide Tehran with fighter jets,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said last Friday.

The Kremlin and the Russian Defense Ministry didn’t respond to requests for comment, and the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declined to comment.

Concern has grown over Iran’s nuclear work since international monitors detected uranium enriched to 84 percent purity — just below the 90 percent needed for weapons. By the end of 2023, Iran will have enough uranium enriched to 60 percent to produce 10 bombs, according to a senior Israeli official and a former senior US official.

Israel continues to hope the US will take the lead on any possible strike and while the Biden administration hasn’t ruled out military action, it prefers diplomacy.

Iran accuses Israel of assassinating its nuclear scientists, most recently as in late 2020, as well as hacking and other nuclear sabotage. Israel doesn’t publicly own up to them but they are widely acknowledged by officials both in the US and in Israel.

Iran says its decades-long atomic program is for peaceful purposes, but Western powers say it’s building the capabilities to make a nuclear bomb.

Drones and fighter jets

In December, the US said Russia was deepening military backing for Iran in return for Iranian supplies of drones for Moscow’s war on Ukraine. The next month, an Iranian lawmaker said Tehran expects a delivery of Su-35 fighter jets from Russia by mid-March.

Russia has very good ties with Iran and Tehran is looking for more support, said Elena Suponina, a Moscow-based Middle East expert.

After the US and five other powers signed a deal with Iran in 2015 restricting its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, Russia sold it a less advanced air defense system, the S-300s. The nuclear deal fell apart in 2018 when President Donald Trump withdrew the US.

The S-400s, which can hit aerial targets at a range of up to 250 kilometers (150 miles), would create a “red zone for high-altitude aircraft,” said Jeremy Binnie, Middle East defense expert at Janes, the UK-based defense intelligence firm.

“The more air defenses they have, the more difficult it is to hit them,” said Yossi Kuperwasser, a former top Israeli military intelligence official and now a senior researcher at the Israel Defense and Security Forum, an association of former and reserve members of the security forces. “We are analyzing when is the most convenient time to take action.”

Israel has been here before. In 2015, Israeli TV played recorded conversations with Ehud Barak, who was Netanyahu’s defense minister in 2012, speaking explicitly of plans to attack Iran that were shelved after discussions with the US.

Israeli officials are watching not only Iran’s ability to withstand an air attack but its capacity to build a nuclear bomb.

They calculate that once Iran decides to weaponize, “it’s anything between 18 to 24 months for them to build the first warhead,” Mark Dubowitz, head of the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, which lobbies for measures to counter Iran, said in an interview in Tel Aviv.

After Joe Biden defeated Trump, his administration tried to revive the Iran nuclear deal but blamed Tehran for walking away. US Ambassador to Israel, Tom Nides, recently indicated understanding for Israel’s approach.

“Israel can and should do whatever they need to deal with (Iran) and we’ve got their back,” he said at an event on Feb. 19.

The US and Israel recently held highly publicized military exercises in the Mediterranean, the largest ever drills between the two allies in a demonstration of aerial force.

New US-built air refueling aircraft which the Israelis are due to receive by 2025 would significantly increase their long-range capability, said Binnie at Janes.

Gulf nations would be at some risk but many are hoping Israel will act — even if it only sets back Iranian nuclear ambitions for a few years, said Riad Kahwagi, founder and chief executive officer of INEGMA, a Dubai-based security research group.

Smuggled Iranian weapons seized in Gulf of Oman, British Royal Navy says

Belgium PM tells Iran’s Raisi to free aid worker

World

Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

-wam

World

At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

World

US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM