World

Analysis: As Ukraine war enters second year, can US support last?

US President Joe Biden dramatically emphasized US backing for Ukraine this week with a trip to the war-torn country, but back home public support for sending weapons to Ukraine is softening as the conflict enters its second year with no end in sight.

Support among Americans for providing military aid to Ukraine has fallen to 58 percent, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos survey of more than 4,000 Americans, conducted from Feb. 6 to Feb 13, a drop from the 73 percent who said they backed the transfer of weapons in an April 2022 poll.

Signs of waning enthusiasm come at a difficult juncture in US politics that may restrict Biden's ability to deliver fully on his promise of unwavering US support for as long as Russian troops remain on Ukrainian soil.

Republicans are in a standoff with the White House on raising the debt ceiling – which caps how much money the United States can borrow. They are demanding steep spending cuts to tame the deficit at a time when the United States is pumping billions of dollars in military and other aid into Ukraine. A number of Republican lawmakers allied to former President Donald Trump have called for restrictions on the aid.

The aid could become a political football in the 2024 presidential campaign, which is already under way. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is widely expected to seek the Republican presidential nomination, this week criticized what he called Biden's “blank check” policy on Ukraine.

For now, Republican leaders in Congress, who fiercely oppose Biden on most issues, support aid for Ukraine's defense, even calling for Washington to send more powerful weapons, more quickly. The Republican chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Michael McCaul, said on a visit to Kyiv on Tuesday that momentum in Washington was shifting toward sending long-range missiles and fighter jets to Ukraine.

But the party is fractured on Ukraine. Right-wing Republicans in the House of Representatives put forward a so-called Ukraine Fatigue resolution that proposed cutting off aid earlier this month, but it lacks enough support to endanger aid in the near term.

Just 11 Republican lawmakers out of 222 in the House signed on to the resolution. Not many, but Rachel Rizzo, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Europe Center in Washington, warned it could be a mistake to dismiss them.

“The pull that small group has on the party is still yet to be seen, but I think it's something that's concerning for all of us,” Rizzo said.

Congress has approved each new tranche of funding the Biden administration has requested since the war began, with aid and military assistance worth $113 billion pledged to Ukraine and allied nations so far.

‘Can't go on forever’

Asked about weakening public support for military aid to Ukraine, White House National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson did not respond directly, but said Americans know what is at stake and can relate to Ukraine's fight for “freedom and independence.”

“Americans' support for Ukraine is reflected in strong bipartisan support Ukraine assistance has received in both houses of Congress,” Watson said.

One US official, who requested anonymity to speak candidly about US support for the war, said the administration has told the Ukrainian government that US resources are not infinite.

“Everybody understands that this (war) has to end at some point. And we all would like to see it end sooner rather than later,” the official said.

Zelenskyy's stated goal is to reclaim all territory seized by Russia since 2014, when Moscow annexed Crimea, and he has said negotiations to end the conflict cannot take place with Russian President Vladimir Putin due to a lack of trust.

Jeremy Shapiro, who served in the US State Department during the Obama administration, said officials also recognize that the war risks escalation and is a distraction from other issues like US competition with an increasingly assertive China.

But the Biden administration's ability to propose compromises to Kyiv and Moscow is inhibited by the risk of appearing weak in the face of an adversary like Russia, said Shapiro, who is director of research at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Making the case

While aid to Ukraine has bipartisan support in the US Congress, some Republican lawmakers are questioning why the United States is spending billions to help Ukraine while Americans cope with high inflation and a troubled economy.

The administration needs to continue making the case to the American public for supporting Ukraine in the face of legitimate concerns among voters, Democrat Bob Menendez, who chairs the powerful Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, told Reuters.

“I’ve been around long enough to see that engagements, especially costly engagement, don't have an eternal lifespan, especially if you're not making a case,” he said.

Ukraine's ability to fight Russia's invasion depends on consistent support from Washington and its NATO allies, said Mark Cancian, a former Pentagon official who is now a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

“Victory will come from the cumulative military capability produced by weapons and munitions that are sent, training that NATO provides, and the resilience of the Ukrainian people,” Cancian said.

A global Ipsos poll late last year found that majorities in NATO members including Canada, Great Britain, France, the Netherlands and Poland back continued military support to Ukraine. Only in Hungary and Italy did more oppose than support it, and those countries' leaders have fallen in line with European initiatives to support Ukraine.

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World

Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

-wam

World

At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

World

US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM