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Analysis: Nuclear risk seen rising as Putin unpicks last treaty with US


The last remaining treaty that limits Russian and US nuclear weapons was already in grave peril before President Vladimir Putin announced on Tuesday that Moscow was suspending its participation.

Now it may be beyond repair, raising the risk of a new arms race – in parallel with the war in Ukraine – in which neither side can rely on the stable, predictable framework that successive nuclear accords have provided for more than 50 years.

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Security analysts said that could hugely complicate the delicate calculus that underpins mutual deterrence between the two countries, while also spurring other powers such as China, India and Pakistan to build up their nuclear arsenals.

In a major speech almost a year after his invasion of Ukraine, Putin said Russia was not abandoning the New START treaty – the agreement signed in 2010 that limits the number of Russian and US deployed strategic nuclear warheads.

But nuclear experts noted the treaty contains no provision for either side to “suspend” its participation, as he said Moscow was doing – they only have the option to withdraw.

Putin said Russia would only resume discussion once French and British nuclear weapons were also taken into account – a condition the analysts said was a non-starter, as it was opposed by Washington and would require a complete rewriting of the treaty.

William Alberque, director of strategy, technology and arms control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said Russia had decided it could live without New START but was seeking to put the blame on Washington.

“They’ve already made the calculation the treaty will die. The effort will be to pin the actual loss on the United States,” he said in an telephone interview.

The treaty effectively limits the number of warheads per missile that either side can deploy, so its demise could instantly multiply the warhead count several times over, Alberque added.

According to the Federation of American Scientists, Russia has an estimated 5,977 nuclear warheads in total, while the United States has 5,428.

“Both sides could immediately go from 1,550 deployed strategic warheads to 4,000 – that could happen overnight,” Alberque said.

That is potentially destabilizing because it creates a “use or lose” dilemma in which dense concentrations of the opponent’s warheads present more attractive targets, he said.

‘Huge instability’

Putin justified the Russian move by saying it was “absurd” for the United States to demand the right to inspect Russian nuclear sites, as the treaty allows, while NATO was helping Ukraine to attack them.

He was apparently referring to what Russia says were Ukrainian strikes in December on its Engels airfield near Saratov, 730 km (450 miles) southeast of Moscow, where Russian strategic bomber planes are based. Putin said, without providing evidence, that NATO specialists had “equipped and modernized” drones to conduct the attacks.

Ukraine has followed a policy of not publicly claiming responsibility for attacks on Russian soil.

James Cameron, a post-doctoral fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project, said that if New START was abandoned, it would mark a return to Cold War-style guesswork about the adversary’s capabilities and intentions.

“So you have a huge instability in the relationship where both sides are acting on the worst-case scenario, adding ever more elaborate systems and plans for their use, and that ultimately leads to a much more unstable situation between the two sides and also greater risk of some kind of nuclear use,” he said in a telephone interview.

Both analysts said it was concerning that Putin had flagged the possibility that Russia might resume testing of nuclear weapons, even though he said Moscow would not take that step unless Washington did so first.

They said that could pave the way for Putin to accuse Washington of conducting or preparing a test in order to justify one of his own.

If he did, it would be Moscow’s first since 1990, the year before the breakup of the USSR. Alberque noted that the United States and the Soviet Union had used nuclear tests during the Cold War “to signal to each other when they were mad.”

Cameron said any Russian test would also be seen as a rung on the ladder of escalation in Ukraine and “an attempt to signal greater readiness to use nuclear weapons” in the context of the war. In the 12 months since the invasion, Putin has repeatedly reminded the West that Russia has weapons of mass destruction and has extended its nuclear umbrella to areas of Ukraine that Moscow has seized and now claims as its territory.

In the event that New START collapsed, or the two sides failed to renew it before it expires in February 2026, it would mark the end of more than half a century of arms control pacts between the two sides, and send a signal to other existing and would-be nuclear powers.

“What would that tell the Indians and Pakistanis, what would China do?” Alberque said. “This could be much more dangerous than the Cold War because you could have many more players racing up to higher numbers, and that would be terrible for global security.”

Read more: Russia’s main goal is maintaining nuclear parity: Kremlin

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Saudi Fund for Development Celebrates 50 Years of Global Impact with Over $20 Billion in Development Contributions

The Saudi Fund for Development (SFD) celebrated its 50th anniversary in Riyadh today, under
the theme “50 Years of Global Impact.”The event brought together key development partners to
reflect on the SFD’s significant contributions to sustainable development worldwide. Over the
past five decades, the SFD has allocated over $20 billion, financing more than 800 development
projects and programs in vital sectors, including social infrastructure (education, healthcare,
water and sewage, and housing and urban development), communication and transportation
(roads, railways, airports and seaports), energy, agriculture, mining and industry, and others.
Since its inception in 1974, the SFD has been the international development arm of the Kingdom
of Saudi Arabia and has provided critical support to over 100 developing nations around the
world. With a strong focus on supporting countries to achieve the Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs), the SFD has played a pivotal role in driving sustainable development in Least
Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS).
During the event, SFD Chairman H.E. Ahmed Al-Khateeb emphasized the importance of
collaboration in driving global development. He highlighted that SFD’s success is deeply rooted
in its partnerships, with 27 development projects and programs in 23 developing countries in
2023 co-financed with other funders. He also underscored the need to forge new partnerships and
strengthen existing ones to create a world where every individual has the opportunity to reach
their full potential.
Reflecting on this significant milestone, the SFD CEO , Mr. Sultan bin Abdulrahman Al-
Marshad, stated: “As we celebrate five decades of impactful work, we are committed, now more
than ever, to supporting developing countries on their journey to economic self-reliance and
resilience. Our goal is to ensure that all children can go to school, that education is not a
privilege but something every child should have access to, and that families have access to
healthcare and basic vital services. Equally, we focus on critical infrastructure development, like
building roads and enhancing airports and sea ports, so that countries can thrive and engage in
economic activities and trade. This work is not just about financing; it’s about tangibly
improving lives, creating opportunities, empowering communities, and building a more
prosperous future.”
On the sidelines of the 50 th Anniversary Gala, the SFD and the Asian Development Bank (ADB)
signed a new $25 million agreement to co-finance a renewable energy development project in the
Solomon Islands. This marks the first project for SFD in the Solomon Islands. The primary aim

of the project is to develop renewable energy infrastructure, reduce dependency on fossil fuels,
and promote sustainable development in the region.
This agreement builds on SFD’50 years of transformative impact through development projects
that have spanned Africa, Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Eastern
Europe.
This includes key projects such as the Metolong Dam in Lesotho, which received $25 million in
funding and now provides potable water to 280,000 people, enhancing water security and public
hygiene and health in the region. This is just one of the 433 projects across Africa, with a total
funding of $11.5 billion, which focuses on critical areas such as infrastructure and water security.
In Asia, the SFD has funded 271 projects with a total funding of $7.8 billion. One notable
example is the SFD’s contribution to the Mohmand Dam Hydropower Project in Pakistan, which
has an overall project cost of $240 million. The projects contributes to the country’s energy
security and flood resilience by generating 800 megawatts of renewable energy and storing 1.6
million cubic meters of water.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, the SFD has financed 21 projects, totaling $951 million
USD. This includes rehabilitating the Water and Sewage System in Havana, Cuba, where the
SFD has allocated $35 million to enhance public infrastructure. Another significant initiative is
the rebuilding of St. Jude Hospital in Saint Lucia, supported by $75 million funding, which will
contribute to providing high-quality health services to citizens in a modern and sophisticated
facility and providing sufficient medical supplies and equipment to support the effective
operation of the hospital.
In Eastern Europe, the SFD has contributed to 14 projects with a total investment of $303
million. A key initiative is the construction of the Tirana-Elbasan-Chokos-Chalf-Ploce Road,
where the SFD provided $73.8 million to rebuild essential roads and bridges, thereby boosting
regional economic activities.
During the celebration, esteemed speakers shared insights on the SFD’s pivotal role in global
development, and in championing critical partnerships and collective action and response.
Keynote speakers included:

 HRH Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud, Founder and Trustee of the King Faisal
Foundation
 H.E. Ahmed bin Aqeel Al-Khateeb, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the SFD
 H.E. Akinwumi Adesina, President of the African Development Bank Group
 H.E. Muhammad Al Jasser, Chairman of the Islamic Development Bank

These global development leaders emphasized the SFD’s commitment to fostering sustainable
growth in countries and communities with the most pressing developmental needs. The gala was attended by more than 500 people, including ministers, heads of regional and international organizations, ambassadors, representatives of the United and other distinguished
guests. As the SFD looks to the future, it reaffirms its mission and pledge to drive international
development efforts, on behalf of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and to contribute to global
stability, social progress, and economic prosperity for future generations.

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Jordan warns of escalation in southern Lebanon

Jordan warned on Sunday of the increasing escalation in southern Lebanon and a potential regional war in light of the ongoing Israeli aggression in Gaza, Jordan News Agency (Petra) reported.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Sufian Qudah discussed supporting Lebanon, its security, stability and the safety of its people and institutions, noting the need to adhere to Security Council Resolution 1701 to reduce and prevent further escalation and protect the region from the risk of slipping into a regional war.

Qudah added that the Israeli war on Gaza and the failure to reach an exchange agreement that leads to an immediate and permanent ceasefire puts the entire region at risk of the conflict expanding.

He discussed launching an effective international movement that imposes an immediate cessation of the aggression on Gaza.

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China issues guidelines for coordinated digital, green transformation

China’s Office of the Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission and nine central departments have issued new guidelines for the coordinated transformation toward digital development and green growth, Xinhua News Agency reported.

Published on Saturday, the guidelines focus on two main areas: promoting the green, low-carbon development of digital industries and accelerating the green transformation of various sectors through digital technology.

They aim to accelerate the coordinated transformation toward digital development and green growth, promote the integration of emerging technologies with green, low-carbon industries, and enhance traditional industries using digital and green technologies.

Outlining fundamental principles, the guidelines specify the roles of authorities, industry associations, universities, research institutes and businesses in driving this transition.

They provide a three-part framework covering the basic capacity, technological systems and industrial systems for digital-green integration.

Regions are encouraged to focus on high-quality development, develop new quality productive forces, leverage local resources and create specialized industries and functional advantages to accelerate coordinated digital and green development.

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