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Putin’s war in Ukraine to lop $190 bln off Russian economy in delayed reckoning


Russia avoided an economic debacle in the aftermath of President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, in what was an opening act of a slow-burning crisis that will play out in the years to come.

An economy Putin once wanted to make one of the world’s five biggest is on a path to lose $190 billion in gross domestic product by 2026 relative to its prewar trajectory, according to Bloomberg Economics, roughly the equivalent of the entire annual GDP of countries like Hungary or Kuwait.

But even as Russia logged its third straight quarter of contraction to end 2022, its downturn for the whole year was a fraction of the almost 10 percent collapse that was predicted a month after the invasion. The central bank has put last year’s drop at 2.5 percent and projects growth may resume already this year.

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The decline probably intensified last quarter in annual terms and may be even worse to start this year, according to analysts polled by Bloomberg.

In what would be the sharpest contraction since the height of the global pandemic, data originally scheduled for Friday was expected to show GDP dropped an annual 4.6 percent in the fourth quarter, the Bloomberg poll showed.

The Federal Statistics Service moved the publication date to next Wednesday, a day after Putin plans to address the nation. The agency known as Rosstat provided no explanation for the change.

‘More and more’

“The effect of the sanctions is prolonged, said Oleg Vyugin,” a former top central bank and Finance Ministry official. “And the sanctions process hasn’t ended. More and more new ones are being introduced.”

The sanctions didn’t cover major Russian exports vital to world markets, such as oil and gas and farm products, though some restrictions on energy were added in the last few months.

Still, the resilience shown so far speaks to years of effort by technocrats close to Putin to steel the economy against disruption with policies that stowed away windfall energy revenue and tried to make Russia less dependent on some imports.

At stake now is Putin’s ability to sustain the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II by continuing to marshal the resources, but without antagonizing a population that’s increasingly worried about its financial wellbeing.

The job will only get harder this year as Putin’s government races to stave off a collapse in oil revenues and ramps up spending on social programs at a time when the mobilization of hundreds of thousands of men is hollowing out the labor market.

Analysis by Bloomberg Economics identified several clues to Russia’s economic survival after the imposition of unprecedented sanctions that included asset seizures targeting individuals close to Putin and saw about $300 billion in international reserves blocked.

The need of the US and its allies to preserve access to energy led them to strike a compromise in balancing punitive moves with their own self-interest. Russia actually pumped more oil, and high commodity prices meant it earned enough to prop up its income by seizing on demand from the likes of China and India.

Countries accounting for more than 30 percent of global GDP maintained trade ties and refrained from condemning the invasion, enabling Russia to rebuild supply chains and fight off economic isolation.

For Vyugin, a veteran Russian banker and economist, the sanctions were “less a knockout blow than a light jab.”

The pivot in commerce toward countries that haven’t imposed sanctions, and a massive increase in government spending, are among reasons why the International Monetary Fund gave Russia the biggest upward revision in outlook among major economies for this year and next.

Equally crucial to containing the damage were emergency measures that prevented a financial meltdown, according to Bloomberg Economics.

Alongside capital controls, a steep increase in interest rates — which has since been more than reversed — staved off a financial crisis. It came at a cost, however, dragging down retail lending and hurting consumption.

Pain Threshold

Almost a year into a war that’s brought combat to finance and trade — as well as the battlefield — Putin may find the economic pain doesn’t sting enough to change his military calculus.

Yet the economy that’s now taking shape will emerge hobbled, as it slips deeper into survival mode.

The shift of workers from factories to the front line is reducing labor supply and may subtract half a percentage point from the private sector’s 2023 growth, according to Bloomberg Economics. The war will also further upend a demographic outlook that indicates Russia’s working-age population could shrink by 6.5 percent over the next decade.

And the costly outlays on defense and social programs already raised federal government spending by 25 percent last year, while increasing employment in the public sector by 300,000.

Though avoiding a crash, Russia’s economy will remain under strain and is still on track to be 8 percent smaller by 2026 than it would have had Putin not ordered the attack on Ukraine in February 2022, Bloomberg Economics estimates.

“Declining imports of technology reduce the growth potential of the economy in the long term, rather than leading to a one-time slump that materializes in a single year,” said Natalia Lavrova, chief economist at BCS Financial Group.

Read more:

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fischer Shares Insights on the Future of Construction at the International Expert Forum

The fischer Group of Companies, a renowned German multinational manufacturer
specializing in fastening products for the construction and DIY industry, hosted its second
International Expert Forum (IEF) at the H Hotel, Sheikh Zayed Road, Dubai. The event
gathered industry leaders, partners, and experts to explore advancements in construction,
focusing on sustainability, innovation, and digital transformation.
The forum emphasized fischer’s commitment to sustainable construction practices. Attendees
were introduced to the company’s latest eco-friendly solutions, aligning with global efforts to
reduce the environmental impact of the industry.”We are thrilled to host the IEF in Dubai, a
city recognized for its forward-thinking growth” said Dr. Ronald Mihala from fischer
“fischer is dedicated to driving the future of construction through innovation, digitalization,
and sustainability.”
Operating through 52 subsidiaries with over 4,700 employees, fischer reaffirmed its
commitment to sustainable growth and international expansion. A key focus of the forum was
innovation and digitalization as the future drivers of construction, with speakers discussing
cutting-edge technologies and their applications.Highlights included:

 Dr. Ronald Mihala and Dr. Oliver Geibig on BIM Integration: They showcased
how fischer leverages Building Information Modeling (BIM) to improve
collaboration, minimize waste, and streamline project management globally.

 Prof. Konrad Bergmeister on The Future of Construction: Emerging technologies
were discussed as the catalysts for safer, more efficient, and sustainable construction
environments.

 Prof. Ashraf Biddah and Dr. Máté Tóth on Repair & Strengthening of
Structures: Prof. Biddah presented innovative methods for rehabilitating aging
infrastructure. Dr. Tóth introduced fischer’s carbon fiber-based solutions, highlighting
the REINFORCE-FIX software for optimized retrofitting.

The forum also unveiled fischer’s latest products, designed to meet the industry’s evolving
needs with a focus on sustainability, efficiency, and advanced technology integration. The
event underscored fischer’s role as a global leader, committed to providing forward-thinking
solutions for the challenges of tomorrow.

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Shurooq’s beachfront project Ajwan Khorfakkan attracts strong investor interest at Sharjah Investment Forum 2024

The Sharjah Investment and Development Authority (Shurooq)
showcased its key projects, including Ajwan Khorfakkan, Maryam Island, and Sharjah Sustainable
City, at the 7 th edition of the Sharjah Investment Forum held on 18-19 September, under the
patronage of His Highness Sheikh Dr. Sultan bin Mohammed Al Qasimi, Member of the Supreme
Council and Ruler of Sharjah.
During the forum, a key highlight was the exhibit featuring Shurooq’s residential project Ajwan,
located in the picturesque city of Khorfakkan. With its strategic location, breathtaking views of the
Gulf of Oman, and majestic mountains, the project seamlessly blends natural beauty with elegant
living spaces.
During the two-day forum, Shurooq’s exhibit garnered significant interest from investors seeking
projects with strong ROI potential and desirable locations for holiday homes or weekend retreats.
Ajwan aims to create a thriving community, offering a blend of hospitality, retail, residential, and
entertainment options, all designed to cater to families and those in search of memorable
experiences.
H.E. Ahmed Obaid Al Qaseer, Chief Executive Officer of Shurooq, said: “We are delighted to see
growing interest in our projects such as Ajwan at the Sharjah Investment Forum 2024. As one of our
flagship projects, Ajwan stands out due to its thoughtful design and prime location, making it one of
our most appealing beachfront developments. Beyond being a significant investment opportunity,
what I value most about this project is its serene environment, which is thoughtfully designed to
promote peace, positivity, and well-being for its residents. Diverse projects such as Ajwan, Sharjah
Sustainable City, and Maryam Island—each designed to elevate the standards of sustainable and
luxury living in Sharjah—show how Shurooq supports Sharjah’s strategic vision. The forum provided
a valuable opportunity for Shurooq to showcase our commitment to developing impactful,
sustainable projects that enhance quality of life while also creating attractive investment
opportunities for investors from different parts of the world.”
Over the past months, Ajwan has garnered significant investor attention primarily due to its key
features, including competitive prices, high-quality living, a strategic location, and attractions for all
ages. Its residential buildings, Al Joon and Saahil, with captivating views, have become so popular
that only a few units are left for sale. The project also features a first-of-its-kind waterpark in the
eastern region of the UAE and is just a 5-minute drive from Khorfakkan’s main attractions such as
the waterfall and amphitheater.
Ajwan’s first phase consists of 79 units, with two-bedroom apartments ranging from 127 to 231 m²
and prices starting from AED 1,899,000. The three-bedroom apartments, ranging from 168 to 289
m², are offered at a starting price of AED 2,099,000. The three-bedroom duplex apartments measure
235 to 275 m² and start from AED 3,799,000. Four-bedroom apartments extend over 225 to 369 m²,
with prices beginning at AED 2,799,000. The four-bedroom duplex apartments cover 272 to 312 m²

and are available from AED 4,199,000. The project is slated to
be completed in the last quarter of 2026.

During the forum, Shurooq also showcased its Maryam Island project—a mixed-use development
featuring 20 residential buildings comprising over 3,500 homes. Spread over a massive 3.3 million sq.
ft. area, the waterfront destination will offer unrivaled vistas of Al Mamzar Beach and Al Khan
Lagoon. The project is due for completion in 2026.
In addition, visitors to Shurooq’s exhibit learned about Sharjah Sustainable City, the first sustainable
master-planned residential community developed by Shurooq in partnership with Diamond
Developers. This development has become one of the most sought-after residential communities,
nearly sold out with only a few villas remaining. It recently surpassed AED 2.5 billion in sales across
all four phases, with the final phase scheduled for completion in 2025.
Organized by the Sharjah FDI Office (Invest in Sharjah), under the theme ‘A Futuristic Vision for
Smart Economies,’ this year’s forum featured over 80 renowned global experts and included
workshops, panel discussions, and keynote speeches. The forum discussed the role of investments
and capital in directing AI systems to support global growth and enhance efficiency, flexibility, and
inclusiveness across various sectors, including real estate.

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Estithmar Holding Lists the First Corporate Sukuk in Qatari Riyals on London Stock Exchange

Estithmar Holding celebrated this morning the listing of its first Sukuk in Qatari Riyals on
London Stock Exchange, at the Stock Exchange’s headquarters. This is the first time that London
Stock Exchange has witnessed listing in Qatari riyals.
The market open ceremony for the listing of Estithmar Holding Sukuks was attended by Eng.
Mohammed bin Bader Al-Sada, Group CEO of Estithmar Holding, in addition to key executives
from the company, Mr. Shrey Kohli, Head of Debt Capital Markets and Issuer Services in
London Stock Exchange, members of the LSE team, and a group of media representatives.
The ceremony was also attended by representatives of the joint lead managers of the issuance
and Qatari financial institutions; Mr. Mohammed Ismail Al-Emadi, CEO of Lisha Bank, Mr.
Ahmed Hashem, acting CEO of Dukhan Bank, Mr. Akber Khan, acting CEO of Al Rayan
Investment and Mr. Haithem Katerji, CEO of The First Investor. The ceremony was attended
also by Mr. Charbel AbuCharaf, Managing Partner, White and Case Qatar in addition to
representatives of legal and consultancy firms.
Estithmar Holding recently announced its successful issuance of the first corporate Sukuk
denominated in Qatari Riyals, worth QAR 500 million, with an annual profit rate of 8.75%. This
issuance is the inaugural tranche of Estithmar Holding’s QAR 3.4 billion Sukuk program which
earned great interest from investors and governmental and non-governmental institutions. The
list of investors included banks, insurance companies, and asset management companies.
Commenting on the event, Eng. Mohammed bin Badr Al-Sada, CEO of Estihtmar Holding,
highlighted the significance of the listing to the Qatari economy, “This issuance demonstrates
confidence in Qatar's robust economy and highlights the ability of the Qatari private sector to
expand both domestically and internationally, with support from government initiatives that
create a seamless environment where companies can develop and thrive.”.
Al-Sada also pointed out the importance of the issuance as a milestone for the company: “Today
Estithmar Holding operates in 7 countries across four sectors and the Sukuk program we have
listed on the London Stock Exchange is a key component of our growth strategy and will
facilitate further expansion and value creation.”.

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