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Explainer: How the earthquake threw Turkey’s election plan into turmoil


Turkey's devastating earthquake has thrown into disarray plans for elections to be held by June, sparking frantic debate within President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government and the opposition over a possible delay.

Even before the disaster – the deadliest in the country's modern history – opinion polls suggested very tight presidential and parliamentary contests.

Here is the state of play and possible scenarios:

What did the earthquake change?

Last Monday's disaster killed at least 32,000 people in southern Turkey, destroyed tens of thousands of buildings and triggered an exodus from the region, casting doubt over the feasibility of organizing elections in the near term.

The logistical difficulties are considerable in a region that is home to some 13 million people, with hundreds of thousands left with destroyed or unsafe houses.

Last month Erdogan, seeking to extend his and his AK Party's (AKP) rule into a third decade, had said the elections would be held in May, a month ahead of schedule.

But in recent days his allies indicated he would seek a delay.

“I don't think it's time to talk about elections,” an AKP official told Reuters, citing the state of emergency. “There must be some delay.”

The official, who declined to be named because he was not authorised to speak on the issue, said November seemed the most reasonable new timing, but that no decision had been taken.

Another official last week said the scale of the destruction presented “serious difficulties” for holding the votes on time.

Can the vote be delayed?

Any attempt to delay elections faces a major constitutional hurdle: Article 78 says parliament may postpone elections for one year, but only in the case of war.

Former deputy prime minister Bulent Arinc, a founder of Erdogan's AKP, called on Monday for a vote postponement and said constitutions are not “sacred texts”.

“Elections must be postponed immediately so that the state bureaucracy can focus on helping our citizens heal wounds. This is not a choice but a necessity,” Arinc said, in what some observers saw as a trial balloon to gauge public mood.

The issue was set to come up at a cabinet meeting chaired by Erdogan on Tuesday afternoon.

What does the opposition say?

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, leader of the main opposition CHP, dismissed a delay on grounds that the constitution is clear on the issue.

“No one can create a legal norm of their own by inventing justifications other than the constitution and laws. There is a constitution. If we say 'Turkey is a state of law', there cannot be (a delay),” he told Yetkin Report in an interview.

He said the priority was to set an election date and get the High Election Board to start preparations.

However, the opposition faces its own challenges. The main six-party alliance seeking to oust Erdogan has yet to announce a presidential candidate and there had been some disagreement within its ranks.

An official from the IYI Party, like the CHP an alliance member, said they would discuss the candidate issue in the coming weeks.

Who would benefit from a delay?

Opinion polls before the quake suggested the vote would be Erdogan's toughest electoral challenge yet with his popularity eroded by the soaring cost of living and a slump in the lira.

The quake brings further uncertainty.

The government faces criticism over the initial speed and organisation of the emergency response and Erdogan has said it was not as fast as desired and he declared a three-month state of emergency in the 10 affected provinces.

The AKP official expected the disaster to erode votes for the ruling alliance given the suffering, and the loss of life and property. “They will want to hold someone to account,” the official said.

The quake-hit region has traditionally backed Erdogan: he took 55% of the vote there in the 2018 presidential election, while his AKP and its partners won the same level of support in the parliamentary election.

Disasters have swayed votes in the past.

After a powerful 1999 earthquake that killed 17,000 people in northwest Turkey, criticism of the response was one factor behind a collapse in then-government's popularity, which helped the AKP triumph in the 2002 vote.

Would Erdogan be able to run?

There is also fierce debate between the government and opposition whether Erdogan can run again, having been president since 2014 and serving his second term.

Constitutional professor Ibrahim Kaboglu, spokesman of the CHP's constitutional commission, said Erdogan would only be eligible to stand in the election if it was held before June.

The constitution sets a two-term limit for presidents, but they can seek another term if parliament calls an early election before the second term expires.

Were Erdogan to run later, the constitution would have to be changed, Kaboglu said.

“But such a constitutional change would just be for an individual. Discussing such a change would be problematic,” he said.

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Read more:

Damages from Turkey quake estimated to surpass $20 billion

Drone footage of quake-stricken Turkish city shows depth of destruction

Three people rescued in Turkey nearly 198 hours after devastating earthquake

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Saudi Fund for Development Celebrates 50 Years of Global Impact with Over $20 Billion in Development Contributions

The Saudi Fund for Development (SFD) celebrated its 50th anniversary in Riyadh today, under
the theme “50 Years of Global Impact.”The event brought together key development partners to
reflect on the SFD’s significant contributions to sustainable development worldwide. Over the
past five decades, the SFD has allocated over $20 billion, financing more than 800 development
projects and programs in vital sectors, including social infrastructure (education, healthcare,
water and sewage, and housing and urban development), communication and transportation
(roads, railways, airports and seaports), energy, agriculture, mining and industry, and others.
Since its inception in 1974, the SFD has been the international development arm of the Kingdom
of Saudi Arabia and has provided critical support to over 100 developing nations around the
world. With a strong focus on supporting countries to achieve the Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs), the SFD has played a pivotal role in driving sustainable development in Least
Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS).
During the event, SFD Chairman H.E. Ahmed Al-Khateeb emphasized the importance of
collaboration in driving global development. He highlighted that SFD’s success is deeply rooted
in its partnerships, with 27 development projects and programs in 23 developing countries in
2023 co-financed with other funders. He also underscored the need to forge new partnerships and
strengthen existing ones to create a world where every individual has the opportunity to reach
their full potential.
Reflecting on this significant milestone, the SFD CEO , Mr. Sultan bin Abdulrahman Al-
Marshad, stated: “As we celebrate five decades of impactful work, we are committed, now more
than ever, to supporting developing countries on their journey to economic self-reliance and
resilience. Our goal is to ensure that all children can go to school, that education is not a
privilege but something every child should have access to, and that families have access to
healthcare and basic vital services. Equally, we focus on critical infrastructure development, like
building roads and enhancing airports and sea ports, so that countries can thrive and engage in
economic activities and trade. This work is not just about financing; it’s about tangibly
improving lives, creating opportunities, empowering communities, and building a more
prosperous future.”
On the sidelines of the 50 th Anniversary Gala, the SFD and the Asian Development Bank (ADB)
signed a new $25 million agreement to co-finance a renewable energy development project in the
Solomon Islands. This marks the first project for SFD in the Solomon Islands. The primary aim

of the project is to develop renewable energy infrastructure, reduce dependency on fossil fuels,
and promote sustainable development in the region.
This agreement builds on SFD’50 years of transformative impact through development projects
that have spanned Africa, Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Eastern
Europe.
This includes key projects such as the Metolong Dam in Lesotho, which received $25 million in
funding and now provides potable water to 280,000 people, enhancing water security and public
hygiene and health in the region. This is just one of the 433 projects across Africa, with a total
funding of $11.5 billion, which focuses on critical areas such as infrastructure and water security.
In Asia, the SFD has funded 271 projects with a total funding of $7.8 billion. One notable
example is the SFD’s contribution to the Mohmand Dam Hydropower Project in Pakistan, which
has an overall project cost of $240 million. The projects contributes to the country’s energy
security and flood resilience by generating 800 megawatts of renewable energy and storing 1.6
million cubic meters of water.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, the SFD has financed 21 projects, totaling $951 million
USD. This includes rehabilitating the Water and Sewage System in Havana, Cuba, where the
SFD has allocated $35 million to enhance public infrastructure. Another significant initiative is
the rebuilding of St. Jude Hospital in Saint Lucia, supported by $75 million funding, which will
contribute to providing high-quality health services to citizens in a modern and sophisticated
facility and providing sufficient medical supplies and equipment to support the effective
operation of the hospital.
In Eastern Europe, the SFD has contributed to 14 projects with a total investment of $303
million. A key initiative is the construction of the Tirana-Elbasan-Chokos-Chalf-Ploce Road,
where the SFD provided $73.8 million to rebuild essential roads and bridges, thereby boosting
regional economic activities.
During the celebration, esteemed speakers shared insights on the SFD’s pivotal role in global
development, and in championing critical partnerships and collective action and response.
Keynote speakers included:

 HRH Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud, Founder and Trustee of the King Faisal
Foundation
 H.E. Ahmed bin Aqeel Al-Khateeb, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the SFD
 H.E. Akinwumi Adesina, President of the African Development Bank Group
 H.E. Muhammad Al Jasser, Chairman of the Islamic Development Bank

These global development leaders emphasized the SFD’s commitment to fostering sustainable
growth in countries and communities with the most pressing developmental needs. The gala was attended by more than 500 people, including ministers, heads of regional and international organizations, ambassadors, representatives of the United and other distinguished
guests. As the SFD looks to the future, it reaffirms its mission and pledge to drive international
development efforts, on behalf of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and to contribute to global
stability, social progress, and economic prosperity for future generations.

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Jordan warns of escalation in southern Lebanon

Jordan warned on Sunday of the increasing escalation in southern Lebanon and a potential regional war in light of the ongoing Israeli aggression in Gaza, Jordan News Agency (Petra) reported.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Sufian Qudah discussed supporting Lebanon, its security, stability and the safety of its people and institutions, noting the need to adhere to Security Council Resolution 1701 to reduce and prevent further escalation and protect the region from the risk of slipping into a regional war.

Qudah added that the Israeli war on Gaza and the failure to reach an exchange agreement that leads to an immediate and permanent ceasefire puts the entire region at risk of the conflict expanding.

He discussed launching an effective international movement that imposes an immediate cessation of the aggression on Gaza.

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China issues guidelines for coordinated digital, green transformation

China’s Office of the Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission and nine central departments have issued new guidelines for the coordinated transformation toward digital development and green growth, Xinhua News Agency reported.

Published on Saturday, the guidelines focus on two main areas: promoting the green, low-carbon development of digital industries and accelerating the green transformation of various sectors through digital technology.

They aim to accelerate the coordinated transformation toward digital development and green growth, promote the integration of emerging technologies with green, low-carbon industries, and enhance traditional industries using digital and green technologies.

Outlining fundamental principles, the guidelines specify the roles of authorities, industry associations, universities, research institutes and businesses in driving this transition.

They provide a three-part framework covering the basic capacity, technological systems and industrial systems for digital-green integration.

Regions are encouraged to focus on high-quality development, develop new quality productive forces, leverage local resources and create specialized industries and functional advantages to accelerate coordinated digital and green development.

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