World

After spy balloon incident, can China and the US talk again?

When US Secretary of State Antony Blinken this month called off his trip to Beijing, he chose his words carefully. China’s launch of a spy balloon on a high-altitude journey over the US was unacceptable and irresponsible, he said, but he was postponing – not canceling – his visit.

For the latest headlines, follow our Google News channel online or via the app.

A week later, China’s balloon has been shot down, the trip remains unscheduled, and the Friday and Saturday downing of two unidentified aircraft over Alaska and Canada raised questions about whether an adversary had sent more spy vessels into North American airspace.

Still, say analysts, the two countries have strong reasons to manage their disagreements. The question now is when, not whether, they find their way back to the negotiating table.

“Secretary Blinken … talked about postponing the trip, not canceling it or ending all foreseeable high-level communication with the Chinese government,” US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said last week. “That is not going to happen.”

China wants to revive its economy, still reeling from the crushing zero-Covid policy. To that end, Chinese President Xi Jinping hopes to improve relations that hit a dangerous low in August with the visit to Taiwan by then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and to persuade US lawmakers not to push new rules aimed at thwarting China’s efforts to produce advanced semiconductors.

And while US observers had low hopes for Blinken’s China trip, diplomats say a high-level visit is needed to put a “floor” under the relationship and to make progress on issues ranging from Chinese fentanyl to Americans detained in the country.

Outrage and hypocrisy

Restarting talks won’t be easy. The balloon flight caused outrage in Washington, with politicians criticizing the US military and US President Joe Biden for failing to shoot it down when it first entered US airspace.

China’s foreign ministry has reacted angrily to Washington’s spying allegations, saying the balloon was a civilian research craft and accusing the US of hypocrisy.

The Pentagon said last week that China declined a US request for a phone call between Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe.

This doesn’t mean re-engagement can’t happen, however.

“While it’s all too common for the Chinese to refuse to engage in the military-military channel when it is needed the most — in a crisis — that doesn’t mean the Chinese have given up on their effort to buy time by calming relations with the US and the West,” said Daniel Russel, the top US diplomat for East Asia under former President Barack Obama.

US leaders have also said communication channels must stay open even while calling the episode a violation of US sovereignty, briefing dozens of countries on what they say is a global Chinese surveillance program and adding six Chinese entities to a trade blacklist.

Biden has said the balloon needed to be shot down, but has played down both the security threat and the impact on US-China relations.

On Thursday, he said the incident was not a major security breach while noting that “the total amount of intelligence gathering that’s going on by every country around the world is overwhelming.”

Give talks a chance

Short of a high-level visit, there are opportunities for diplomacy. In a report from Berlin, Politico cited diplomats as saying that China’s top diplomat Wang Yi, whom Blinken was to meet in Beijing, would attend this year’s Munich Security Conference, which is slated for Feb. 17-19.

Blinken will also attend the event, though neither side has said the two might meet there.

Another chance will be a China trip by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. On Wednesday Yellen said she still hoped to go to China, giving no details on timing, and China’s commerce ministry said on Thursday it welcomed her willingness to visit.

While helpful, such meetings can only set the stage for the in-depth, high-level dialog needed to steady ties.

Blinken could meet with the Chinese in Munich or at the G20 foreign ministers meeting in India in March, but he needs to visit Beijing and meet face-to-face with Xi to ensure messages on thorny issues like Taiwan and Russia get through, Russel said.

New US restrictions on Chinese companies and Republican House Committee Chairman Mike McCaul’s announced desire to visit Chinese-claimed Taiwan in April “could prove the straws that break the back” of such efforts, he added.

Bonnie Glaser, an Asia expert at the German Marshall Fund of the US, cautioned that domestic pressures in both countries may mean it is too early for either side to re-engage.

“The Chinese don’t want to look weak and they probably don’t want to admit that they lied (about the balloon). President Biden is also under pressure from Republicans in Congress who insist the balloon should have been shot down sooner,” said Glaser.

US fighter jet downs ‘object’ over Alaska, days after China spy balloon incident

US in touch with allies over global Chinese spy balloon ‘fleet’: Pentagon

World

Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

-wam

World

At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

World

US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM