Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has privately asked senior ministers and officials to draw up plans for rebuilding the UK’s relations with the European Union after years of acrimony since Brexit.
Driven in part by the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, senior civil servants have been drafting proposals for how Britain can work more closely with EU nations across a range of policy areas. The work focuses on defense, migration, and so-called economic statecraft which includes issues such as trade, energy and international standards.
Sunak’s pivot toward the EU was described by ministers, diplomats and officials who asked not to be named discussing unpublished plans.
UK officials are hoping that in the coming days they will be able to announce a solution to the years-long dispute with the EU over post-Brexit trading arrangements for Northern Ireland. And Sunak’s team are looking to use that breakthrough as the foundation for a more comprehensive improvement in ties with the bloc.
To pull that off, however, the 42-year-old prime minister faces a delicate balancing to keep the ardent Brexiteers in his party in check and to coax their allies in the Democratic Unionist Party into lifting their veto on devolved government in Northern Ireland.
Even if he can do that, he’ll face the skepticism of European leaders who’ve been trying to do business with the UK for the past seven years as the country bounced through five different prime ministers who often treated the EU as a punch bag for their domestic audience. The UK is also soon to unveil legislation on migration that could bring it into conflict with the European Convention on Human Rights.
The change in the UK’s strategy toward Europe was not an admission that Brexit had been a failure, a government official insisted, arguing it was a reflection of a changing reality.
Sunak has made clear to European leaders that he is determined to resolve the issue of trade with Northern Ireland, which has blighted relations since Britain left the bloc. A deal at a technical level is all but agreed, though the prime minister still has to convince the DUP and Conservative Brexiteers not to derail it.
If the impasse can be broken, Sunak’s administration aims to deliver more tangible policy successes this year. Sunak’s team see his relationship with French President Emmanuel Macron as promising, and cooperation with France will be essential if the UK is to stop undocumented migrants crossing the Channel in small boats.
That’s one of Sunak’s five pledges to voters ahead of an election expected next year.
Sunak and Macron presented a united front this month as they both hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who traveled from Britain to France on a UK government plane. An early test of the outreach will be Sunak’s meeting with Macron in Paris in March, where he hopes to secure further progress on migrant crossings.
Britain is also working on detailed plans to bolster defense ties with Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This will be centered around the NATO summit in Lithuania in July, where some senior members of Sunak’s government want to see a new investment pledge going beyond the group’s existing commitment to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense.
Defense Secretary Ben Wallace has called for greater investment in Britain’s Armed Forces, and a post-Ukraine update to the Integrated Review of British defense, security and foreign policy is due in the coming weeks.
Among the proposals under consideration are a formal defense and security relationship and dialogue between the UK and EU, as well as a legal agreement to more easily allow the British military to join EU operations. The UK’s response to the Ukraine war provided a big opportunity to take more of a leadership role in NATO’s command and control structures, one senior UK official said.
The EU is likely to welcome closer cooperation on security, since the UK and France have the most powerful militaries in Europe. Indeed, when Sunak’s predecessor Boris Johnson was negotiating the terms of Brexit, the EU pushed for more cooperation on defense but Johnson refused.
The government also wants to work more closely with the EU on joint defense exports, to deter non-European countries from agreeing contracts with Russia and China. That could prove trickier to negotiate.
British officials are concerned that UK defense companies could be squeezed out from an EU-only policy on defense exports and see a joint initiative as a way to hedge that risk. France and Germany have traditionally tried to steer big defense contracts toward European companies, but the recent agreement to develop a fighter jet with Italy and Japan shows what it possible.
While there have been heated behind-the-scenes disagreements with Germany in particular on issues such as tanks, the Ukraine war has left European nations and the UK more aligned on foreign and defense policy than at any point in decades.
Britain’s economic fortunes since Brexit have so far been defined by meager growth and weaker trade with the EU. On Friday, official data showed the UK’s trade deficit with the bloc had widened to a record in the final quarter of 2022.
One UK official said they have told Sunak that strong trading relations with Europe will be essential for the economic challenges of the future in areas such as emerging technologies, and to deal with threats like global supply shocks and China.
The reality is that a more dangerous world, rising authoritarianism and protectionism means there is no choice but to work closely with allies, the official said. This means moving away from what the “madman strategy of recent collisions with Brussels, toward a more stable relationship as critical friends,” they added.
Civil servants are drawing up a Supply Chains and Imports Strategy that will propose securing supplies of critical goods like minerals from safe countries, in the event of future shocks comparable to the Covid pandemic. A Semiconductor Strategy will outline a similar approach for the supply of chips.
US President Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act has focused minds in London about the risks of Britain being caught in the middle of two large trading powers pursuing protectionist policies. UK ministers have engaged their EU counterparts urging them not to harm British firms as the bloc considers its own massive green subsidies in response to the US.
There is no way the UK would be able to compete with the size of US and EU subsidies, so it has to instead use diplomacy to negotiate protections for British companies from both sides, a person familiar said. Those talks are being led by Business and Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch and Sunak himself.
Badenoch has also pivoted away from her predecessor Liz Truss’s focus on securing free trade agreements with non-EU countries that have been of debatable economic benefit, toward boosting exports and investment.
Soft power is also key in another area Sunak wants to boost Britain’s relevance: what officials call regulatory diplomacy. The government wants to be able to influence international standards on essential goods of the future and that means engaging with the EU.
Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies
H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.
During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.
He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.
The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.
At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books
As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”
Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.
Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.
Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.
Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.
Automation
The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.
Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.
US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79
US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.
In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.
He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.
President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.