World

Can earthquakes be predicted? UAE-based expert seismologist weighs in

The unpredictable, and often chaotic, nature of earthquakes makes it challenging to develop a reliable earthquake early warning system.

Expecting and preparing for an earthquake can be tricky due to the unpredictable and complex nature of the phenomenon. Currently, there is no available technology that can accurately and consistently predict exactly when and where an earthquake will strike.

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Planet Earth’s crust is composed of many interconnected tectonic plates that are constantly moving and interacting with each other, causing earthquakes.

Although scientists have been able to identify certain patterns and behaviors over the years that may indicate an impending quake, such as changes in seismic activity, the underground movement of magma, and the buildup of stress in the Earth’s crust, none of these factors provide a clear and reliable prediction.

The models developed by scientists to understand the behavior of earthquakes are limited by the quality and quantity of data available, as well as the complexity of the Earth’s systems.

Mitigation strategies such as the seismic building code, awareness and the earthquake early warning system would have a significant impact on society because it would give people and communities sufficient time to evacuate and prepare, reducing the number of casualties and minimizing damage to property and critical infrastructure.

However, the world is not there yet, and we have seen the direct devastation that the lack of such crucial information can cause after the 7.4-magnitude earthquake struck Turkey and Syria on Monday, reverberating across the Mediterranean region, with shocks being felt in Lebanon, Israel, Egypt, Jordan and Cyprus.

In Turkey alone, according to the latest estimates, at least 1,014 people have died and hundreds others injured.

A building collapsed in a neighborhood in Syria’s northern city of Aleppo early Sunday, killing at least 10 people, including one child. (Twitter)

What happened in Turkey “is not uncommon,” according to Khalifa al-Abri, Director of the Department of Seismology at the UAE’s National Center of Meteorology.

“Since 1970, there were three earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 6.0 in the region, with the largest being 6.7. Now we see [today’s quake] at 7.4 magnitude. So you can expect a larger magnitude or it might not happen at all because usually this energy is released already during the time [of the earthquake] so it’s difficult to predict when the earthquake may happen,” he told Al Arabiya English in an interview on Monday.

Al-Abri stated that while there may be individuals who claim to predict earthquakes, there is currently no scientific basis for such predictions. The UAE-based seismologist mentioned that they have seen instances where someone proclaimed to predict an earthquake, but it did not occur within the timeframe specified, adding that as of now, there are no reliable tools that can accurately predict earthquakes.

A Dutch researcher predicted the earthquake would happen three days before. In a tweet on Monday, the Netherlands-based researcher at the Solar System Geometry Survey (SSGEOS) Frank Hoogerbeets stated: “Sooner or later there will be a ~M 7.5 #earthquake in this region (South-Central Turkey, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon).”

Sooner or later there will be a ~M 7.5 #earthquake in this region (South-Central Turkey, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon). #deprem pic.twitter.com/6CcSnjJmCV

— Frank Hoogerbeets (@hogrbe) February 3, 2023

Although he predicted it would happen, he did not specify the exact date or time it would take place.

How to stay safe during an earthquake

While earthquake prediction remains a thing of the future, al-Abri said that being aware of the necessary precautions that should be taken in the event that such a natural disaster should strike was the first step to guaranteeing safety.

“We should be prepared… We need to prioritize our home, identify the safest and high-risk areas in the house, and keep hazardous materials away from children by placing them away, but not on top of a shelf so that it does not fall down if an earthquake happens,” al-Abri explained.

“Also, make sure that children are aware of the required emergency response so that if they feel the earthquake coming or after the event happens in the area, they know that they need to drop, cover and hold. This could be done under a heavy table or sofa or they can sit in the corner of the room on their own.”

Drop, cover and hold are the main precautions which have been communicated to people over the years. The reason being is that people should drop down onto their hands and knees before the earthquake knocks them down, cover their head and neck or entire body if possible underneath a sturdy table or desk and hold on to their shelter or to their head and neck until the shaking stops, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention states.

“People should be aware of these precautions whether they’re staying at home or are at work, they need to know the exit and assembly points for emergencies,” he added.

Earthquake high-risk areas

The Ring of Fire is a significant geological feature that encompasses the Pacific Ocean basin. It is characterized by a series of volcanic and seismic hotspots that run along the rim of the ocean, which includes island nations such as Japan, Indonesia and the Americas.

This area is of great significance as it experiences a majority of the earthquakes that occur globally, with an estimated 90 percent taking place within its boundaries.

Additionally, the Ring of Fire is home to a large number of active volcanoes, with approximately 75 percent of the world's active volcanic sites located along its path. The Ring of Fire is an important area of study for geologists and seismologists due to its high levels of tectonic and volcanic activity.

Also along the Ring of Fire is the Alpide belt which extends from the Mediterranean region, eastward through Turkey, Iran, and northern India, al-Abri explained.

Watch: A live television broadcast captures the moment a second #earthquake hit #Turkey, sending people running.https://t.co/JjFkvrhqIA pic.twitter.com/2fYv6CrkkU

— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) February 6, 2023

Major earthquake in Turkey kills at least 1,014, over 5,000 injured

Top 5 most devastating earthquakes: From Sichuan to Haiti, latest in Turkey and Syria

World

Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

-wam

World

At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

World

US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM