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Explainer: Fighter jets to Ukraine a step too far for NATO wary of war with Russia

Washington rejected Warsaw's proposal to transfer Polish MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine through a US military base in Germany as the West seeks for ways to help Kyiv fight Russian invasion but fears being sucked into a war with nuclear-armed Moscow.

Here are NATO allies' considerations on providing fighter jets to Ukraine, which was attacked from the air, sea and land on Feb. 24.

Moscow has targeted Ukrainian cities, sending some 2 million civilians fleeing and triggering more EU sanctions on Russian banks and trade, as well as blacklisting of officials and oligarchs.

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Poland

Poland is the largest ex-communist state in NATO and the European Union, and has a long history of fighting Russia and seeking to integrate with the West. It now sits on the eastern border of both blocs and neighbours Ukraine, with which it has many cultural and historical links.

But Poland refused to go solo in providing jets to Ukraine, fearing it would be exposed to Russian retaliation without all of the NATO alliance rallying behind it.

“Such a serious decision as supplying planes must be unanimous and unequivocally made by the whole North Atlantic alliance,” said Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.

Warsaw has warned previously about NATO's blind spot known as the Suwalki Gap, a 100-kilometre-long (60-mile) border running through farmland and woods on the Polish-Lithuanian frontier, the only thing that separates Russia's ally Belarus from Moscow's Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad.

Germany

Germany handed over 22 MiG-29 to Poland in 2003-04 and, under a resale clause, Poland would need to get Berlin's approval to pass them on to Ukraine.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has already forced Berlin to rethink its long-declared ban on exporting arms to war zones, a policy designed to break with the country's historical legacy of waging wars on Europe in the 20th century.

Germany announced it would supply anti-tank weapons and anti-aircraft weapons from its military stocks to Kyiv, as well as authorising Estonia passing on old East German howitzers and the Netherlands offering German-produced RPGs.

While it has moved a long way from its initial offer of 5,000 helmets to Ukraine in late January, Germany is also keen to avoid moves that Russian President Vladimir Putin would see as provocation meriting military response.

Germany hosts the Ramstein air base, the US military's gateway to Europe and part of the biggest US military community overseas, with around 50,000 service members, civilian employees and families living there.

NATO

The 30 NATO countries are legally bound to protect each other if one comes under attack. But the allies are wary of Putin's nuclear threat and have already refused Ukraine's calls to set up a no-fly zone to help protect it from Russian missiles and warplanes.

“We are not part of this conflict,” NATO head Jens Stoltenberg said last week.

Two NATO sources told Reuters this week that providing fighter jets to Ukraine would also risk dragging the Western military alliance into a full-on military confrontation with Russia.

“You could change the colours on the jets but you can't hide it from Russia,” said one of the sources, who spoke under condition of anonymity.

“The question is whether we are willing to accept Russia firing off missiles towards Tallinn or Riga, or somewhere in the Nordics, or in Poland. There is no political appetite for that.”

Read more:

Ukraine leader urges west to resolve Polish jet offer: ‘Send us planes’

Poland ready to place all its MIG-29 jets at the disposal of the US for Ukraine

US surprised at Poland's decision to give it fighter jets for Ukraine

Poland only ready to act on jets for Ukraine within NATO framework

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Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

-wam

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At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

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US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM

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