World

Russians rush to shop amid fast-weakening rouble, fears for future

In bright sunshine, a long queue of shoppers snaked outside an IKEA store near Moscow this week. Similar scenes were repeated across Russia as families rushed to spend their fast-depreciating roubles at the Swedish retailer which is exiting the crisis-hit country.
Russians are bracing for an uncertain future of spiraling inflation, economic hardship and an even sharper squeeze on imported goods.

For the latest headlines, follow our Google News channel online or via the app.

The rouble has lost a third of its value this week after unprecedented Western sanctions were imposed to punish Russia for invading Ukraine. The moves froze much of the central bank’s $640 billion in reserves and barred several banks from global payments system SWIFT, leaving the rouble in free-fall.
Cities across Russia were outwardly calm, with little sign of the crisis devastating financial sector and markets. Except for the lines of people looking to stock up on products – mostly high-end items and hardware – before shelves empty or prices climb further.
“The purchases that I planned to make in April, I urgently bought today. A friend from Voronezh also told me to buy for her,” shopper Viktoriya Voloshina told Reuters in Rostov, a town 217 kilometers (135 miles) from Moscow.
Voloshina said she was looking for office shelves and tables and also shopping on behalf of a friend from another town. “My heart is breaking,” she added.
Dmitry, another Moscow resident, lamented rapid price rises.
“The watch I wanted to buy now costs around 100,000 rubles, compared to 40,000 around a week ago,” he said, declining to give his surname.
But the spending burst visible this week may peter out.
While there is no palpable sign of panic, the wipe-out of rouble savings and the doubling of interest rates to 20 percent will squeeze mortgage holders and consumers.
Financial conditions — reflecting availability of credit in the economy — have tightened brutally this year, which Oxford Economics predicted would shrink domestic demand by 11 percent by year end and raise unemployment by 1.9 percentage points in 2023.
Zach Witlin, an analyst at Eurasia Group, notes sanctions are already hitting consumers via prices hikes and digital payments disruptions.
While consumers are not directly targeted, “fear and caution are exaggerating the impact,” with the exit of foreign brands such as IKEA creating a “snowball effect,” he added.

Imports to isolation

Cars, machinery and car parts comprised nearly half of Russia’s $293 billion imports last year, according to the Federal Customs Service.
The government’s strenuous import cutbacks in recent years mean 2021 imports remained 7 percent below 2013 levels, before the first sanctions following Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea.
It has also beefed up trade with China, which is the only country to boost exports to Russia since 2014.
But further declines look inevitable as the rouble plunges, insurers refuse cover to businesses exporting to Russia and shippers back away from Russian ports whether to export or to import.
While only a few Russian companies are targeted by sanctions “all of them will feel the chilling effect,” said Matt Townsend, sanctions partner at law firm Allen & Overy. “This is why sanctions are a very effective measure to isolate a country.”
The immediate economic shock will cause a 35 percent GDP contraction in the second quarter and a 7 percent decline in 2022, JPMorgan predicted. But “growing political and economic isolation will curtail Russia's growth potential in years to come,” it added.
That may come about if restrictions “limit the acquisition of technology needed to support Russia's highest value industries,” RBC Global Asset Management warned.
The Biden administration is preparing rules to curb Moscow’s ability to import smartphones, aircraft parts and auto components.
But multinationals, from tech firms Apple and Microsoft to consumer goods producers Nike and Diageo, have severed links with Russia, meaning shoppers will have limited access to the consumer goods they have grown accustomed to over three decades.
Chinese companies, so far staying put, could grab some market share but they too could fall prey to secondary sanctions as many of their products such as smartphones use US origin technology.
Some Russians are not staying to find out. Lidia, a freelance worker from Rostov said the money transfer curbs were complicating receiving payments from abroad.
“The sanctions have hit me very hard. Prices are already up around 20 percent…It’s a fact that you already can’t buy some medicines. Things will get worse,” she said.
“Today my family and I are leaving Russia.”

Saudi Arabia, Russia foreign ministers review Ukraine invasion, Middle East security

Heavy fighting to the north-west of Kyiv continues: UK

World

Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

-wam

World

At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

World

US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM