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Tunisia shortages bite as fiscal crisis looms

Tunisians are suffering delays to salary payments and shortages of grains, medicines and sugar, a foretaste, some economists say, of a rapidly looming public finances crisis that looks increasingly hard to avert.

Outside the Ettahrir district of Tunis, taxi driver Ahmed ben Salem stood in a long queue at a bakery that has cut its working times because supplies are more limited than in the past.

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“This isn’t my only failed shopping trip. For the past month, I go around the district every day looking for semolina. I go through all the shops but without hope,” he said.

Any big hit to the standard of living in Tunisia, where the government imports and subsidizes many basic goods, would greatly aggravate an existing political crisis as President Kais Saied tries to cement one-man rule and rewrite the constitution.

Saied and government officials have blamed the delays and shortages on administrative glitches, labor union strikes, speculators or even a conspiracy by his opponents.

“They are trying to starve the people through medicine and food supplies,” Saied said last month.

Economists say there is a simpler cause: Tunisia is running out of money and so is struggling to pay state workers and foreign suppliers.

Talks on an International Monetary Fund (IMF) rescue package have been repeatedly stopped and started because of Tunisia’s political tumult, but they recommenced last month.

An IMF deal is seen as necessary to unlock further bilateral help from Western allies and Gulf states as Tunisia tries to finance its deficit and make debt repayments.

Central bank governor, Marouane Abbasi, has said Tunisia risks a crisis on the scale of those in Lebanon or Venezuela.

“There are teachers who have reached a state where they wake up in the morning thinking about how to survive the day without money. How they are going to feed their children,” said Lotfi Mansouri, 55, a teacher in Tunis.

In January, teachers’ salaries were delayed by more than a week. Diplomats have warned that such delays may grow more common if the government is unable to strike an IMF deal in the spring, something they say seems unlikely.

Big problem

“If the authorities do not reach an IMF agreement, they will not be able to mobilize the necessary loans and won’t be able to cover public spending except by the very worst solutions like printing money,” said economist Ezzedine Saidane.

That could prompt a sharp fall of the currency, very high inflation and the faster depletion of Tunisia’s remaining financial resources, he said.

Since December, labor union officials at the port of Sfax have said numerous grain shipments have not docked or unloaded because the state cannot pay for them. Trade Minister Fadila Rabhi has denied this, saying the delays were caused by labor union strikes and that there is enough grain to last until May.

Other subsidized staples, including sugar and semolina are also in short supply through government agencies, said wholesaler Tarak Tahri, 40. “None of them are available. In the past I always found them. But there’s a big problem now,” he said.

Though the state has not raised flour prices, some bakeries have raised the bread price by a quarter because they cannot get enough subsidized flour and have to use grain bought privately.

A national bakers association says there has been a continuous shortage of flour for three months, disrupting activity and pushing hundreds of bakeries towards collapse.

At pharmacies, some centrally bought medicines including for diabetes and heart conditions, are no longer available.

“There are dozens of medicines that we’ve been unable to buy for two months,” said Fathi, a pharmacist in the Omrane Superieur district who did not want to give his family name.

A retired customer, Noureddine Layouni, said he has asked a friend in France to post him his medicine instead.

“My situation is unbearable. Where are we going? Is this the prosperity that Saied promised us?” he said.

Read more:

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Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

-wam

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At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

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US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM

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