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Lebanon’s Hariri expected to announce election boycott: Party members

Lebanon’s leading Sunni Muslim politician Saad al-Hariri is expected to announce on Monday he will not run in a May election that his movement may boycott, party members said, a potential political earthquake during a national financial collapse.

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Hariri has served as prime minister three times since inheriting the political mantle of his father, Rafik al-Hariri, after his assassination in 2005. But while he remains the leading Sunni, his political fortunes have waned in recent years, with his position weakened by the loss of Saudi support.

Hariri has been holding meetings with his Future Movement and senior Lebanese politicians since Thursday, and is due to make an announcement at 4 p.m. (1400 GMT).

Hariri’s announcement comes as Lebanon suffers an economic meltdown which the World Bank has described as one of the sharpest ever globally. The sectarian elite has failed to take steps to address the crisis, even as the bulk of the population has fallen into poverty.

Future Movement legislator Mohamad Hajjar told Reuters: “It is most likely that Prime Minister Hariri will not participate, and the Future Movement will not participate either, but the final word is what Prime Minister Saad Hariri will say.”

“If this is the decision, then the exit will be from parliament and power, and not from political life.”

Lebanon is governed by a sectarian power-sharing system that distributes state positions among 18 officially recognized sects, with the post of prime minister going to a Sunni.

HEZBOLLAH GAINED IN LAST VOTE

Hariri has not yet publicly given any reasons for a possible boycott, though political sources say he has expressed exasperation at what he has described as the obstruction of his past efforts to govern.

Future Movement vice president Mustafa Allouch told Reuters it was “now common knowledge … that he will not run himself” in the parliamentary election. “However, the rest is still under debate until now,” he said.

The heavily armed, Iran-backed Shia group Hezbollah and its allies won a majority in the 2018 election, which adversaries hope to overturn in the vote scheduled for May. Western states say the vote should happen on time.

Some analysts say a boycott by Lebanon’s largest Sunni movement, which would leave the Sunni political scene in disarray, may lead to calls for a delay.

“I expect to hear voices calling for the postponement of the election, but it doesn’t necessarily mean they will be postponed,” said Nabil Boumonsef, deputy editor-in-chief of Annahar newspaper.

Mohanad Hage Ali, a fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center, said a boycott by Hariri “pulls rug from under the whole process, and would increase speculation that it might not happen.”

Hariri’s last spell as prime minister ended in 2019 when he resigned in response to mass protests against the ruling elite.

He traded blame with other leaders over blocks to reforms that could have averted the economic crisis.

The early years of Hariri’s career were defined by confrontation with Hezbollah and its allies. But in later years his critics accused him of compromising with the group.

Read more:

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At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

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US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM

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TRENDS Explores Cooperation with Indonesia’s BNPT and Launches Indonesian Edition of a Book

On its first day in Jakarta, Indonesia, as part of the third leg of its Asian research
tour, TRENDS Research ‘ Advisory met with the Indonesian National Counter
Terrorism Agency (BNPT). The discussion focused on the role of think tanks in
combating terrorism and extremist ideologies, as well as potential areas for
cooperation and partnership in specialized research and strategic studies.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS, presented the center’s
intellectual and research efforts in this field, emphasizing the crucial role think
tanks play in refuting the arguments of extremist groups.
TRENDS researchers also showcased the Encyclopedia of the Muslim
Brotherhood, a project comprising 35 books, with 12 already published and
translated into multiple languages.
During the discussion, TRENDS launched the Indonesian translation of the 11th
book in the encyclopedia, titled “The Concept of the State According to the
Muslim Brotherhood”
The book highlights the Muslim Brotherhood’s adversarial stance, since its
inception, toward the Arab states, viewing them as an obstacle to the group’s ascent
to power. The group opposed the modern principles upon which these states were
built, considering them incompatible with its unique interpretation of Islam, which
the group claimed to exclusively embody.
The discussion also featured the introduction of the Muslim Brotherhood
International Power Index (MBIPI), the first of its kind globally. Compiled

annually by TRENDS, the index tracks and measures the global influence and
strength of the Muslim Brotherhood.
TRENDS researchers were briefed by BNPT officials on the agency’s work, vision,
and achievements. The BNPT representatives praised TRENDS’ research efforts
and expressed a strong desire to establish constructive cooperation between the two
sides to enhance efforts in countering terrorism and extremist ideologies.
The discussion between TRENDS and BNPT underscored the importance of
mutual cooperation in this field and other research areas, fostering research
excellence and knowledge dissemination.
Both sides agreed to maintain communication with the goal of signing a
memorandum of understanding and cooperation.

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