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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s stance on Russia looms over first visit to US

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is flying to Washington this week on a mission to reassure Americans that his country stands alongside the United States and other NATO partners in opposing any Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Scholz has said that Moscow would pay a “high price” in the event of an attack, but his government’s refusal to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine, bolster its troop presence in eastern Europe or spell out which sanctions it would support against Russia has drawn criticism abroad and at home.

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“The Germans are right now missing in action. They are doing far less than they need to do,” Senator Richard Blumenthal, a Democrat and member of the Armed Services Committee, recently told an audience of Ukrainian Americans in his state, Connecticut.

This sentiment was echoed by Republican Senator Rob Portman, who questioned why Berlin hadn’t yet approved a request to let NATO member Estonia pass over old German howitzers to Ukraine. “That makes no sense to me, and I’ve made that very clear in conversations with the Germans and others,” Portman told NBC.

Publicly, German officials insist their country is doing its part. Germany’s ambassador in Washington, Emily Haber, appeared on Fox News last month to defend Berlin’s restrictive stance on arms exports and highlight the generous economic support provided to Ukraine.

Yet in a confidential diplomatic cable beginning “Berlin, we have a problem,” Haber warned that Germany risks being portrayed as an unreliable partner in Washington, the respected German news weekly Der Spiegel reported.

Much criticism has also focused on Germany’s heavy reliance on Russian supplies of natural gas and the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline bringing that gas to Germany under the Baltic Sea, bypassing Ukraine. The project has long been opposed by the United States but is strongly supported by Scholz’s center-left Social Democratic Party, most prominently its last chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder.

The 77-year-old Schroeder is close to Russian President Vladimir Putin and already heads the shareholders’ committee of Nord Stream AG and the board of directors of Nord Stream 2.

In a move likely to embarrass Scholz ahead of his first trip to Washington, the Russian state-owned gas company Gazprom announced on Friday that Schroeder — who has accused Ukraine of “saber-rattling” in its standoff with Russia — has been nominated to join its board of directors.

Scholz’s spokesman declined repeated requests for comment on Schroeder’s ties to Putin.

Support for Nord Stream 2 goes beyond Schroeder, however.

The Social Democratic governor of the northeast German state where the pipeline arrives from Russia has lobbied for it. Her predecessor chairs a charitable foundation created to shield companies working on the project from possible US sanctions.

It’s with this baggage in tow that Scholz will meet President Joe Biden and members of Congress on Monday, with a news conference and network interview also planned. The softly-spoken 63-year-old’s performance in Washington could have broad implications for US-German relations and Scholz’s standing at home.

While former President Donald Trump frequently slammed Germany, accusing it of not pulling its weight internationally, his successor has sought to rebuild relations with Berlin.

“Biden has taken some real risks, including on the the issue of the German-Russian gas pipeline,” said Jeff Rathke, president of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies.

“(Scholz’s) visit to Washington is an opportunity for him to try to turn that page,” said Rathke.

Having succeeded long-time German leader Angela Merkel last year, Scholz also needs to appease doubters at home who accuse him of pulling a diplomatic vanishing act compared to his European counterparts.

With the phrase “Where is Scholz?” trending on social media last week, German conservative opposition leader Friedrich Merz called for “clear words” from the government on the Ukraine crisis.

“We must rule nothing out as a reaction to a further military escalation," the leader of Merkel’s center-right bloc said. “It’s a disaster that the German chancellor is evidently paralyzed and inhibited at the moment in what he perhaps could do.”

Others in Scholz’s three-party governing coalition have also been more hawkish toward Russia.
During her visit to Moscow last month, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock of the Green Party branded Russia’s troop deployment at the border with Ukraine a “threat.” She plans to visit Ukraine on Monday and Tuesday and inspect the front line between Ukrainian troops and areas held by Russian-based separatists in the east.

Whatever Germany does to support Ukraine will likely come at a cost.
Germany’s approval of 5,000 helmets for Ukrainian troops last week drew widespread mockery. Kyiv has since asked Germany for more military hardware, including medium-range and portable anti-aircraft missile systems, as well as ammunition, putting Berlin in an awkward position.

Meanwhile, some German officials worry that any mention of further sanctions against Russia could drive up Europe’s already high gas prices, a fear that experts say isn’t unfounded.

Constanze Stelzenmueller, a specialist on trans-Atlantic relations at the Brookings Institution, noted that Europe will bear the brunt of blowback costs from economic sanctions against Russia.

“You have populists in Europe always looking for ways to exploit political differences and tensions,” she said. “That’s what’s at stake here.”

In an uncharacteristic outburst at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, Scholz — who was then Germany’s finance minister — announced that he would be pulling out a figurative “bazooka” to help businesses cope with the crisis by setting aside more than 1 trillion euros ($1.1 trillion) in state aid.

Scholz may need to make a similarly expansive gesture to ease concerns in Washington and beyond, said Rathke.

“Germany is going to have to show that it is not only committed to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, but that it’s putting real resources behind it now, not just pointing to what it’s done in the past," he said.

Read more: US says Russia preparing full-scale invasion of Ukraine

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At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

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US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM

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TRENDS Explores Cooperation with Indonesia’s BNPT and Launches Indonesian Edition of a Book

On its first day in Jakarta, Indonesia, as part of the third leg of its Asian research
tour, TRENDS Research ‘ Advisory met with the Indonesian National Counter
Terrorism Agency (BNPT). The discussion focused on the role of think tanks in
combating terrorism and extremist ideologies, as well as potential areas for
cooperation and partnership in specialized research and strategic studies.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS, presented the center’s
intellectual and research efforts in this field, emphasizing the crucial role think
tanks play in refuting the arguments of extremist groups.
TRENDS researchers also showcased the Encyclopedia of the Muslim
Brotherhood, a project comprising 35 books, with 12 already published and
translated into multiple languages.
During the discussion, TRENDS launched the Indonesian translation of the 11th
book in the encyclopedia, titled “The Concept of the State According to the
Muslim Brotherhood”
The book highlights the Muslim Brotherhood’s adversarial stance, since its
inception, toward the Arab states, viewing them as an obstacle to the group’s ascent
to power. The group opposed the modern principles upon which these states were
built, considering them incompatible with its unique interpretation of Islam, which
the group claimed to exclusively embody.
The discussion also featured the introduction of the Muslim Brotherhood
International Power Index (MBIPI), the first of its kind globally. Compiled

annually by TRENDS, the index tracks and measures the global influence and
strength of the Muslim Brotherhood.
TRENDS researchers were briefed by BNPT officials on the agency’s work, vision,
and achievements. The BNPT representatives praised TRENDS’ research efforts
and expressed a strong desire to establish constructive cooperation between the two
sides to enhance efforts in countering terrorism and extremist ideologies.
The discussion between TRENDS and BNPT underscored the importance of
mutual cooperation in this field and other research areas, fostering research
excellence and knowledge dissemination.
Both sides agreed to maintain communication with the goal of signing a
memorandum of understanding and cooperation.

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