Amid record-breaking global temperatures and warnings that the world is on the brink of a “global boiling”, a clarion call has been sounded on the profound impact of heatwaves in the Middle East, a region already beleaguered by socio-political violence and instability.

Imene Trabelsi, the regional spokesperson for International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) in the Near and Middle East, told Al Arabiya English that as the relentless grip of summer tightens and the world witnesses some of the most severe heatwaves ever recorded, the phenomenon is significantly felt in countries plagued by ongoing conflicts.

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“Globally, out of the 25 states deemed most vulnerable to climate change, 14 are mired in conflict,” she said. “Climate change consequences, namely heatwaves, amplify the humanitarian needs triggered by conflicts. At the same time, conflict damages or destroys infrastructure and compromises access to essential services.”

This July was declared the hottest month ever recorded on Earth, with average global temperatures reaching unprecedented heights.

This escalation of heat is particularly impacting countries such as Iran, a nation teetering on the precipice of climate vulnerability. With a population exceeding 85 million, Iran grapples with the dual challenges of climate change and surging global temperatures. The government, struggling to protect its citizens from the searing heat, declared a two-day holiday for government workers and banks, as temperatures soared beyond 40 degrees Celsius in many cities and nearly 50°C in some regions.

Egypt, another nation in the crosshairs of intensifying heatwaves, declared scheduled power cuts in response to the mounting strain on its electricity grid and natural gas supplies.

Trabelsi points to ICRC’s observations of unprecedented temperatures in cities like Aden in Yemen and Basra in Iraq, as well as the eruption of forest fires in Syria. These extreme weather conditions exacerbate the vulnerability of already distressed communities, who are grappling with both, the ravages of conflict and the merciless heat.

Extreme weather conditions are even more difficult to cope with for the most vulnerable communities, due to the ongoing or past conflicts, she said, she said, adding that an increase in temperatures “results in even more unfulfilled basic needs for millions.”

The stifling refugee camps

Children gather to fill bottles and jerrycans with the little water left in the container at one of Arsaal Syrian Refugee camps (ICRC)

A telling illustration of this crisis is found in the Syrian refugee camps, where the convergence of conflict and heatwaves is acutely felt.

ICRC worker Jamale Abu Hamad recounts his visit to a Syrian Refugee Camp in Lebanon’s Arsaal region. He paints a bleak picture of refugees enduring temperatures surpassing 40 degrees Celsius. In these dire conditions, residents must prioritize their meager water supply, which falls significantly below the recommended daily emergency quota of 30 liters per person.

“Refugee settlements are particularly vulnerable during summer,” he said, adding that he had visited the camp earlier this month. “It was 2pm when we arrived at one of the refugee camps in Arsaal, with the temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius.”

Sharing his experience, Abu Hamad said the camp alleys were almost deserted as it was too hot to step out. The only crowded spot was the water distribution point, he said, where children, men and women gathered to fill bottles and jerrycans with whatever little water was left in the containers.

Mohammed, a camp inhabitant, was part of that motley crowd. He confirmed that during summer, he needed at least 15 liters of water daily, just for drinking purposes, for himself and his family. “This is the worst summer since we arrived at this camp in 2014. We never saw such a heat,” Abu Hamad said.

According to a UNDP estimate, by 2040, temperatures In Lebanon will increase by around 1°C on the coast to 2°C in the mainland.

Surviving the sweltering heat takes on a grim calculus for these displaced families. Mothers are forced to decide whether to allocate precious water for drinking, cooking, cleaning or just leave the family agonizingly short of this precious resource. Insufficient water and the consumption of contaminated water breed new health challenges, a point tragically underscored by the spread of cholera in these camps earlier this year.

Abu Hamad said ICRC workers spoke to mothers who shared that they must think twice before using some of the water to give their children a shower daily.

A climate of inequality and struggle

Summertime is notably challenging for camp inhabitants with special needs.

Another camp resident, Ahmad Mohammed Abdelfattah, told Abu Hamad that he was injured during the unrest in Syria 10 years ago, which left the lower part of his body paralysed. Though he is a beneficiary of ICRC’s physical rehabilitation program, he has made only limited progress with the treatment as he requires sophisticated surgery that cannot be provided by the aid actors.

Syrian camp refugee resident Ahmad Mohammed Abdelfattah got injured during the outbreak of violence in Syria 10 years ago and was left with a permanent physical disability as his lower half has completely lost mobility. (Screenshot: ICRC)

“For Ahmad, summer is a taste of hell: Unable to move, stuck in an overheated tent all day with only a few hours of electricity that allows him to turn the fan on and sleep briefly before the next power cut,” Abu Hamad said.

Lebanon is arguably the country that has been most significantly affected by the Syrian displacement crisis as it currently hosts the largest proportion of refugees from Syria, compared to its numbers worldwide. According to government estimates, Lebanon currently hosts 1.5 million Syrian refugees, including approximately 815,000 registered with United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

Nine out of ten Syrian refugee families in Lebanon are living in extreme poverty.

The strain on already impoverished refugee families intensifies as they battle the combined impacts of conflict and heatwaves. The ICRC’s efforts to support thermal insulation initiatives for refugee shelters are just one small effort in the larger struggle to protect these vulnerable communities.

Last month, UN chief Antonio Guterres had warned that the rise in temperatures meant the world was on the brink of an “era of global boiling” as he pleaded for immediate radical action on climate change.

“In conflict settings, early warning systems and safety nets are often weak and therefore people are not supported in confronting these extreme conditions,” Trabelsi told Al Arabiya English.

“Some of the important elements needed to cope with heatwaves are: Good water access (to sustain productivity and also to cater to household consumption needs and ensure hygiene), functioning health systems to cope with increased case load, and supply of electricity to ensure cooling,” she added.

With institutions weakened by protracted conflict and communities across the region struggling with the compounding impact of environmental degradation, climate change and socio-political strife, the coping mechanism of the affected people has been adversely impacted.

In southern Iraq, water scarcity, amplified by climate change, and environmental degradation, combined with the lasting effects of conflicts that have weakened the state’s capacity to maintain infrastructure or support agriculture, have forced many to change their way of life.

Very high temperatures, drought and intense dust storms have reduced people’s ability to cope with their surrounding conditions. In addition, with desertification affecting 39 percent of Iraq’s territory, communities residing in areas once known for agriculture are now struggling to survive.

Over the past several years, the sustainability of the agricultural sector has been undermined by many factors, including conflict, climate change and water scarcity.

Al-Miskhab in Najaf governorate, for example, which was famous for growing the amber rice, is no longer able to mass produce the crop due to an acute water scarcity.

Extreme temperatures and health issues

With intense heat becoming more frequent, the Middle East will see a rise in heat-related deaths. In May this year, a new research was published in the science journal Nature Sustainability, mapping out the impact of extreme heat around the world, should global temperatures rise by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius over the next 50 years.

A refugee in Swaida Displacement Camp in Central Yemen. (ICRC)

Extreme heat is classified as average annual temperature being around the 29 degrees Celsius-mark. The research found that majority of people in the Middle East will be exposed to extreme heat by 2050.

Trabelsi highlights the range of health risks stemming from extreme temperatures – from heatstroke to the exacerbation of non-communicable diseases.

“While the public health impacts of heatwaves are not always immediately obvious, they are predicted to become significantly worse in this region due to climate conditions,” she warned.

In conflict zones, the link between extreme temperatures and health issues is even more pronounced, as already weakened health systems buckle under the added strain.

Yemen, Marib, Central Yemen, Swaida Displacement Camp

For instance, insufficient access to safe water and proper sanitation is a common issue in most refugee settlements across the region. “Due to insufficient water, the consumption of contaminated water can be at the origin of additional health issues such as spread of infectious diseases,” Trabelsi said.

Offering a first-hand account of the Swaida Displacement Camp in the Marib region of Yemen from June 2022, ICRC worker Wagdi al-Maqtari said: “From a distance, the thousands of worn-out tents in the desert region of Marib in central Yemen look like lumps of rugs tainted by the yellowish soil of the barren desert landscape.”

Al-Maqtari said temperatures in the area hit nearly 50 degrees Celsius during the summer, with frequent dust storms adding to the ordeal of the 12,500 displaced people.

One of the residents at these tents is Fatima, a 12-year-old, watching over her mother, Moghniya, stricken with terminal cancer.

Moghniya, stricken with terminal cancer, at Yemen's Swaida Displacement Camp. (ICRC)

“We met Fatima wandering in the camp of Swaida. She asked us to come with her and see her mother,” said al-Maqtari.

“We followed her into her tent. Near the entrance, a pool of stagnant water reeked of sewage. The girl pulled back an old blanket that served as the door, revealing her mother inside. The woman was so thin that she looked as small as a child,” al-Maqtari added.

The heat inside the tent was so unbearable that the sick woman had no choice but to move her mattress out in the open area for some fresh air, al-Maqtari said.

“She said, ‘I Just need an air-conditioner, until God takes me back. I was assigned to a cancer center in Mukalla, hundreds of kilometers away, but I couldn’t afford the transportation and the long travel required, especially in this heat. Now, I’m just sitting in my tent, waiting for death to release me from this agony’,” al-Maqtari added, while recounting the hapless woman’s words.

Out of the estimated 4.2 million people displaced in Yemen since the beginning of the conflict, 73 percent are women and children. Displaced women and girls suffer from an additional economic and social vulnerability resulting into a limited access to all basic services, especially access to health care.

The intensification of hostilities in areas like Marib put in great danger the lives of more than one million displaced people hosted in the area.

Trabelsi said the main issue is that in these fragile contexts, health systems are close to their breaking points due to direct and indirect impact of years of conflict.

“For example, nearly half the health facilities in Syria and Yemen are either out of order or only partially functional, with new stressors such as heatwaves only worsening an already critical situation,” she added.

Syrian women and their children, seen through a tent window, stand at a refugee camp in the town of Bar Elias, in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, Tuesday, June 13, 2023.

More support ‘critical’

As Trabelsi urges for more support for the displaced, she emphasizes the urgent need for investment in adapting programs for conflict-affected countries. The struggle is complex, as environmental degradation, conflict and climate change intertwine, magnifying the vulnerability of communities.

The call for a unified effort, spanning humanitarian, developmental and peacebuilding sectors, resonates as Trabelsi underscores the importance of empowering local communities and ensuring access to essential services.

“It’s crucial to boost investment in adaptation programs that address needs across sectors, to enable conflict-affected countries and populations bear the combined impacts of environmental degradation, climate change and conflict on human health. This includes investment in health system strengthening and resilience,” she added.

The weakness of climate action and non-existent, insufficient or inadequate finance in conflict settings stems in part from the limited presence of major climate actors in these settings due to the risks they present.

There are several manifestations of humanitarian consequences that the ICRC is already witnessing in several countries where they work across the region, such as an increase in internal migration, mainly due to the direct impact of climate change on livelihoods.

Trabelsi said it is important to flag that that majority of the countries that fall under the scope of her work in this region are characterized by high employment in the agricultural sector. As a case in point, almost 70 percent of Yemenis are employed in this sector.

The harsh climatic conditions reduce crops and livestock productivity. This translates into migration towards more productive areas and most often to cities, as well as an increased need for relief assistance, particularly when mobility is hindered by on-going conflicts, Trabelsi explained. “Also, logistics of aid operations are affected with higher costs and challenges to maintain cold chains for medical items, for example,” she further said.

Crises to worsen

Today, in the Middle East and North Africa region, there are 15.7 million refugees (according to UN figures) and the numbers are likely to increase due to the outbreak of the Sudan crisis.

Displaced Yemeni kids are seen at a refugee camp located between Marib and Sanaa, Yemen March 29, 2018. (Reuters)

Numbers of internally displaced people are skyrocketing in some countries. For example, 6.9 million people remain internally displaced in Syria and 4.5 million in Yemen. Heatwaves will further exacerbate their capacity to meet their most basic needs, due to social and economic vulnerability and limited livelihood opportunities.

Trbaelsi highlights “operational collaboration across the humanitarian–development–peacebuilding nexus” that can help harness the complementary nature of these organizations’ mandates and expertise with a view to helping the most vulnerable communities.

Investment in environmental and climate services, especially in remote areas and informal settlements, will enable anticipatory action and better responses, she said. Moreover, empirical studies on successful and unsuccessful adaptation measures in conflict-affected areas are critical to ensure informed decision-making and programming.

Trabelsi believes that including local communities as key agents in adaptation efforts enhances adaptive outcomes and reduces the risk of maladaptation. People and communities on the front-lines of climate change – including displaced people – are often in the best position to identify the most pressing risks and issues and play a key role in contributing to finding solutions.

“The priorities for all actors, including humanitarian organizations and donors, should be to enable devolved decision-making, ensuring direct access to legitimate community-led structures,” she further said.

Along with ensuring better food and water systems, there is an acute need to invest in health system resilience in conflict-affected countries, to ensure better response to the combined impact of environmental degradation, climate and conflict on life and livelihood.

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