World

Niger coup leaders blame insecurity but data points to a different cause

When Niger’s coup leader Abdourahmane Tiani announced the overthrow of President Mohamed Bazoum on television last week, he cited persistent insecurity as justification.

But an analysis of data on attacks and casualties in the country, where an extremist insurgency has raged, shows that security was actually improving thanks to tactics used by Bazoum’s government and help from French and US forces.

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Those tactics and that support are in jeopardy now.

Meanwhile, coups can stoke insecurity. Violence has soared in neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso since their militaries took power promising peace and shunning former Western allies, according to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), a US-based crisis-monitoring group.

Security analysts warn that the disarray in Niger could allow groups linked to al-Qaeda and ISIS to expand their reach across West Africa’s Sahel region, where they have already killed thousands and forced millions to flee. It could also hobble economic development and democratic progress in one of the world’s poorest areas.

“The coup is good news for extremist groups,” said Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank. “The support of international forces, the stability in the capital city, all those things are now gone. It is likely that things will go bad.”

In the first six months of 2023, violent incidents in Niger decreased by nearly 40 percent compared to the previous six months, according to the ACLED data, which is based on reports from sources including news organizations, human rights groups and local authorities. They included fighting between the army and militants, explosions, and riots. But most incidents involve attacks on civilians, which dropped by half during that period.

Fatalities from violence, including both civilians and combatants, dropped by a third between 2021 and 2022, to just below 1,000, the data showed. They were less than 450 in the first six months of this year.

By contrast, in Mali, where there were two coups in 2020 and 2021, deaths in violent incidents more than doubled last year to nearly 5,000 as more than 2,000 French troops left and Mali’s army teamed up with Russian private military contractor Wagner Group.

In Burkina Faso, where there were two coups last year, deaths rose 80 percent to more than 4,000 in 2022. They have already surpassed 5,000 this year.

Reuters was unable to reach Niger’s coup leaders for comment. Military spokespeople in Mali and Burkina Faso did not respond to requests for comment.

Insecurity remains a major problem in Niger. Boko Haram insurgents from neighboring Nigeria have plagued the southeast for years. And groups linked to al-Qaeda and ISIS are active in the southwest.

Still, many fear that the progress made could now unravel.

The United Nations special envoy for West Africa and the Sahel, Leonardo Santos Simao, said he hoped diplomacy would return Bazoum to power but worried about regional security if that failed. The main regional bloc, the Economic Community of West African States, on Sunday gave Tiani a week to restore Bazoum, or it would consider using force.

“If the situation is not reversed, it’s very likely that the spread of terrorism in the region can increase,” Simao said.

Many are unworried. Hundreds of people marched in the capital Niamey on Thursday in support of the junta as regional defense chiefs discussed possible intervention to restore democracy.

Outstretched hand

Violence crept into southwest Niger in 2018 as extremist militants expanded from Mali, where they had been active since 2012.

By 2021, the semi-desert border area was overrun by fighters who won recruits among locals who felt sidelined by the government and angered by army abuses. Attacks on civilians and the military soared. One attack in January 2020 killed around 100 soldiers.

In 2022, Bazoum, who was elected in 2021, changed tack. He visited communities hit by violence and offered an “outstretched hand” to militants who were willing to down arms.

Government emissaries were sent to meet extremist fighters and ethnic Fulani communities from which militants were recruiting. Local media reported prisoner releases in which insurgents were set free.

Bazoum also shied away from outsourcing the fight against extremists to local militias, which security experts say has contributed to the bloodshed in Burkina Faso and Mali.

Military leaders in Mali and Burkina Faso kicked out French forces after their coups. Mali, whose leaders also demanded the withdrawal of a decade-long UN peacekeeping mission this year, has support from about 1,000 Wagner mercenaries, but they have failed to stem the unrest. Armed groups have flooded the east since the French left last year, threatening major towns, local officials and security experts said.

Niger, meanwhile, has enjoyed Western support. France has between 1,000 and 1,500 troops in Niger, with support from drones and warplanes. The US, which has about 1,100 personnel in Niger, provides intelligence.

But now the US is threatening to suspend cooperation. France has cut financial support, and the European Union has suspended security aid.

“If this coup stays, then the entire Western military cooperation will probably be off,” said Ulf Laessing, head of the Sahel program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, a German think tank.

Niger army operations could falter, he said.

“You saw it in Burkina Faso after the second coup. The army fragmented. Officers were more concerned about their political careers than the front line. Some units were pulled back. This is the risk in Niger.”

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World

Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

-wam

World

At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

World

US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM