World

Wagner mutiny exposes risks for China’s deep Russian ties

As news broke on Saturday that mercenary Wagner troops were careering towards Moscow in a short-lived rebellion, several businessmen from southern China began frantically calling factories to halt shipments of goods destined for Russia.

While the mutiny – the biggest test of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s leadership since his February 2022 invasion of Ukraine – quickly faded, some of these exporters are now left questioning their future dependence on Beijing’s closest ally.

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“We thought there was going to be a big problem,” Shen Muhui, the head of the trade body for the firms in China’s southern Fujian province said, recalling the scramble among its members exporting auto parts, machinery and garments to Russia.

Though the crisis has eased, “some people remain on the sidelines, as they’re not sure what will happen later,” he added, declining to name the companies pausing shipments.

China has sought to play down the weekend’s events and voiced support for Moscow, with which it struck a “no limits” partnership shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine in what Moscow calls a “special military operation.”

But a top US official on Monday said the weekend uprising had unsettled Beijing’s cloistered leadership, and some analysts inside and outside China have started to question whether Beijing needs to ease off its political and economic ties to Moscow.

“It has put a fly in the ointment of that ‘no-limits’ relationship,” said Singapore-based security analyst Alexander Neill.

China’s foreign ministry, which described the aborted mutiny as Russia’s “internal affairs” and expressed support for Moscow’s efforts to stabilize the situation, did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

Calls for caution

Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner private army that has fought some of Russia’s bloodiest battles in the Ukraine war, led the armed revolt after he alleged a huge number of his fighters had been killed in friendly fire.

But the mercenary leader abruptly called the uprising off on Saturday evening as his fighters approached Moscow while facing virtually no resistance during a dash of nearly 800 km (500 miles).

China did not comment as the crisis unfolded, but released a statement on Sunday when Foreign Minister Qin Gang hosted a surprise meeting with Russia’s deputy foreign minister in Beijing.

At the heart of China and Russia’s relations is a shared opposition to what they see as a world dominated by the United States and the expansion of the NATO military alliance that threatens their security.

After securing an unprecedented third term as president earlier this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping made his first overseas trip to Moscow to meet his “dear friend” Putin.

While nationalistic commentators in state-run Chinese tabloids cheered Putin’s swift efforts to stamp out the rebellion, even some in China – where critical speech is tightly controlled – have started to question Beijing’s bet on Russia.

China “will be more cautious with its words and actions about Russia,” said Shanghai-based international relations expert Shen Dingli.

Some Chinese scholars have gone even further.

Yang Jun, a professor at Beijing’s China University of Political Science and Law, wrote a commentary published on Saturday that called for China to directly support Ukraine to avoid being “dragged into a quagmire of war by Russia.”

“With the development of the current situation and the trend of the war…(China) should further adjust its position on Russia and Ukraine, make its attitude clearer, and decisively stand on the side of the victors of history,” he wrote in Chinese-language Singaporean newspaper Lianhe Zaobao.

It was unclear if Yang’s article was written before the Wagner rebellion and he did not respond to requests for an interview from Reuters.

Other China-based academics, however, said Beijing would not change its stance on Russia as a result of the incident.

Investor uncertainty

China is Russia’s top trading partner, with Beijing exporting everything from automobiles to smartphones and receiving cheap Russian crude oil that faces sanctions in much of the rest of the world.

But even in the energy sector, which fueled a 40 percent jump in trade between Russia and China in the first five months of this year, there are some signs of caution in China.

Top company executives at Chinese state energy companies have routinely said it was too early to comment or sidestepped questions on new investments in Russia.

“Should Russia lose the war or see changes in the domestic leadership, it will create huge uncertainties for Chinese investors,” said Michal Meidan, head of China energy research at The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

He said the Chinese government also seemed to be exercising caution, pointing out that Beijing had not yet signed a deal for a major new gas pipeline connecting the countries despite a push from Moscow.

While China is vital to Russia’s economy, China’s trade with the likes of the United States, the European Union and Japan – among the fiercest critics of Moscow’s war in Ukraine – dwarfs its dealings with Russia.

“Beijing now has more reasons to have more reservations and to become more transactional in its dealings with Putin’s Russia,” said Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University.

“There’s no point making long-term investment in someone who may not credibly survive into the long-term.”

Russia says it does not know Wagner chief’s whereabouts

Russia prepares to take possession of Wagner’s heavy military hardware

World

Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

-wam

World

At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

World

US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM