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Explainer: North Korea’s satellite launch attempt could be ‘first of many’


North Korea is unlikely to be deterred from its quest to place cargoes in space, analysts said, even though a malfunction sent a new launch vehicle and the country’s first spy satellite crashing into the ocean on Wednesday.

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The secretive country considers its space and military rocket programs a sovereign right, and analysts say spy satellites are crucial to improving the effectiveness of its weapons. Focusing on satellites also shows a shift toward practical rather than political goals, they say.

Wednesday’s setback, which state media blamed on an unstable and unreliable new engine system and fuel, will probably be followed by more attempts, said Atsuhito Isozaki, professor of North Korean studies at Keio University in Japan.

“Even if this satellite launch is a failure, General Secretary Kim Jong Un himself has made clear that this satellite is the first of many,” he said. “This won’t be the end of those efforts.”

Eyes in the sky

Since 1998, North Korea has launched five satellites, two of which appeared to have made it into orbit, including in its last attempt in 2016.

International observers said the 2016 satellite appeared to be under control, but there is debate over whether it sent any transmissions.

Previous space launches were widely seen as veiled weapons tests, and the US military said Wednesday’s launch featured technologies related to North Korea's banned intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

But since 2016, North Korea has developed and launched three types of ICBMs, and now appears genuinely committed to placing working satellites in space. That would not only provide it with better intelligence on its enemies, but prove it could keep up with other growing space powers in the region, analysts said.

“North Korea has traditionally lacked robust strategic situational awareness capabilities, which contribute to its chronic sense of insecurity,” said Ankit Panda of the US-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

North Korea could use such satellites to more effectively target South Korea and Japan or conduct damage assessments, he said.

On the other hand, if North Korea can verify, with its own satellites, that the United States and its allies are not about to attack, it might prove stabilizing, Panda added.
Technical advances, political messages

Takeshi Watanabe, a senior fellow at the National Institute for Defense Studies, pointed out that in recent years North Korea appears to have focused on technological needs rather than prioritizing political messages. In the past it has done the opposite, for instance by conducting launches on specific days regardless of the conditions.

“North Korea cannot maintain the credibility of its capabilities against Japan, the US, and South Korea unless it successfully launches a satellite, so it can’t ignore its scientists,” he said, adding that those circumstances could mean North Korea won’t rush into another launch.

North Korea’s isolated status means it doesn’s have ground stations around the world to communicate with rockets and satellites.

South Korea, for example, used a station in Antarctica to make contact with satellites it launched on its homegrown rocket for the first time last week.

“(This) makes controlling and communicating with satellites challenging,” said Brian Weeden of the Secure World Foundation, a US-based space policy and security organization. “It can basically only be done when they pass over North Korea, which for a low Earth orbit satellite would be a few times a day at most.”
Read more:

US, South Korea hold largest-ever live drills simulating North’s ‘full-scale’ attack

North Korea criticizes US, South Korea military drills as ‘nuclear blackmail

Japan prepares to shoot down North Korea spy satellite if it falls

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Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

-wam

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At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

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US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM

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