World

Analysis: Wagner chief is Putin’s jester, indispensable for shady business

As the Russians declare victory in Bakhmut after months of bloody fighting, one figure has been increasingly visible, Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin. He claimed to have fully captured the city, a success subsequently lauded by President Vladimir Putin. The exchange is part of a larger, multi-faceted chess game unfolding in the intricate halls of Russian politics.

Prigozhin's proclaimed win in Bakhmut is critical for him at this juncture because it allows him to demonstrate usefulness to Putin. “It is important for him to showcase his effectiveness now, as the recent events indicate a noticeable decrease in his influence,” Ivan Fomin, Democracy Fellow with the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) told Al Arabiya English.

His waning influence is evident in the termination of his access to Russian prisons for recruitment purposes, the curtailing of his communication with Russian ministries and agencies, and the rising difficulties with the ministry of defense, limiting his men’s supply of ammunition.

Paradoxically, Prigozhin's apparent loss of influence within official channels has led him to increase his visibility in the public sphere. “However, the use of public channels is more a display of weakness than strength. This growing visibility actually signifies a decline in his influence. His reliance on public channels indicates that non-public ones are now inaccessible to him,” Fomin said.

The Wager chief has been using social media to air his public rants attacking Moscow’s top brass, bureaucrats and the Russian elite, which made him a popular public figure in large parts of Russian society, as well as catapulted him into the international limelight.

Yet, despite his public tirades, Prigozhin remains significant in Putin’s power structure due to his role as a counterbalance to the defense ministry. The Russian president still benefits from having a figure with military resources that can act with apparent autonomy, providing plausible deniability for the Kremlin when necessary. “This makes Prigozhin indispensable for all sorts of shady business,” Fomin argued.

“Progozhin’s visibility, assertiveness, and aggressive stance towards some parts of the Russian elite may give the impression that Prigozhin is some kind of threat to Putin, but I do not think he actually is. His extraordinary role is a feature not a bug of Putin’s system. He is a special element of the system – a person who is allowed to say and do things that others cannot, something like a jester,” he said.

What next?

The Wagner boss said that he will pull his men out of the battlefield by the end of the month for rest and retraining. But there were no declarations of whether the group will continue to take part in the Ukraine war.

Ruslan Trad, resident fellow for security research at the Atlantic Council, told Al Arabiya English that the future of Wagner's redeployment remains uncertain. They could potentially continue their activities in Ukraine or return to Africa to support their ally, the head of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan.

Last month, Wagner denied operating in Sudan and claimed it was not involved in the recent outbreak of violence between the Sudanese army and the RSF. However, it is widely reported that Wagner has operations in the Middle East and Africa, such as Syria, Central African Republic, Libya and Sudan where they have reportedly provided services ranging from personal security for leaders, to military training, to active combat roles.

Trad contended that Wagner’s operations overseas are not dependent on their participation or lack there of in the Ukraine war.

“Their forces are in the areas where Russia has an interest, at least because the supply lines of valuable resources, which the Kremlin uses to circumvent sanctions, are at stake. Sudanese gold is one of those resources, and Hemedti has personal and economic ties to Wagner. So far, there is no evidence that the Russians are active on the ground – yet – in favor of one force or another, but diplomatically, they have taken a position against the Sudanese army,” Trad said.

As for the group chief’s standing with Putin after the Bakhmut events, despite the ebbing of his influence, Prigozhin's jester-like role seems secure within Putin's carefully calibrated political machinery.

Trad eloquently summed it up: “In the end, Prigozhin brings to Putin what he wants – profits, fear, and symbolic victories to be used in propaganda.”

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‘Depleted’ Wagner forces unlikely to fight beyond Bakhmut: Think tank

Wagner chief’s attacks on top brass: Harbinger of Putin’s weakness or calculated bet?

World

Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

-wam

World

At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

World

US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM