World

Who’s behind the attack on a Russian region on the border with Ukraine?

Russia alleges that dozens of Ukrainian militants crossed into one of its border towns in its Belgorod region, striking targets and forcing an evacuation, before over 70 of the attackers were killed or pushed back by what the authorities termed a counterterrorism operation.

Ukraine denied any involvement in the skirmishes Monday and Tuesday, instead blaming two Russian groups that claim to be volunteers fighting alongside Kyiv's forces in an uprising against the government of President Vladimir Putin.

While neither version could be independently verified, whatever happened appears to have sent Moscow scrambling to respond to one of the most serious border incursions since Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Belgorod Gov. Vyacheslav Gladkov said an elderly woman died in the chaotic evacuation, and 12 people were wounded in the attack and shelling. As fighting there apparently continued Tuesday morning, he urged residents not to return to their homes, and only in late afternoon declared the operation was over.

A look at what's known about the attack and the murky groups who say they carried it out:

Who's claiming responsibility?

Two groups — the Freedom of Russia Legion and Russian Volunteer Corps – claimed responsibility for the attack and announced an ambitious goal of “liberating” the Belgorod region. Little is known about them beyond what they say about themselves, and it's not clear how they are.

The website of the Freedom of Russia Legion says it was formed last spring “out of Russians’ desire to fight against Putin’s armed gang” and is “officially recognized” by Kyiv’s military. “We are fighting in full cooperation with the Armed Forces of Ukraine and under the leadership of the Ukrainian command,” the website says.

The website said it fought last summer in “small battle groups,” and now was involved in the battle for the eastern city of Bakhmut.

The Russian Volunteer Corps’ page in the messaging app Telegram used to say it was a formation within the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It now describes itself as merely fighting on the Ukrainian side.

In August 2022, an announcement posted there said: “We, Russian volunteers living in Ukraine, decided to take up arms and create a military formation, the Russian Volunteer Corps, in order to together with our Ukrainian comrades defend their homeland which gave us shelter, and then continue the fight against the criminal Putin regime and his henchmen.”

Other posts claimed the group was fighting in southeastern Ukraine, or as volunteers serving elsewhere in the country, including in Kyiv's suburbs of Bucha and Irpin.

In March, the Russian Volunteer Corps claimed responsibility for an incursion in Russia's Bryansk region, another border area. Media reports at the time identified some of its members as Russian nationalists.

In a post Tuesday, the Russian Volunteer Corps described its political views as “right-wing conservative and traditionalist."

What does Ukraine say?

Ukrainian officials have never confirmed any ties with either group. The government in Kyiv denied involvement in this week's Belgorod incident, calling it an act by disgruntled Russians.

When they did talk about it, officials were vague. Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said “patriots of Russia” and “people who actually rebelled against Putin’s regime” were behind the attack. Presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak blamed “underground guerrilla groups” that are “composed of Russian citizens.”

In remarks to the news outlet Suspilne, Ukraine intelligence official Andrii Yusov said it was the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion.

Andrii Cherniak, another intelligence representative pointed to the fact that the two groups claimed responsibility. "This is the consequence of aggressive politics of Putin’s regime and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” he told The Associated Press.

What does Russia say?

Russia calls it an incursion by saboteurs deployed by Kyiv, with officials and state media using various epithets ranging from “militants” to “terrorists.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Belgorod attack was a diversion, meant “to draw attention away” from Russia's victory in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, which Moscow claimed to have captured over the weekend after months of bloody fighting.

Asked Tuesday about claims that the invaders were ethnic Russians, Peskov insisted that “these are Ukrainian militants from Ukraine.”

“There are lots of ethnic Russians in Ukraine, but these are still Ukrainian militants,” Peskov said.

Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said more than 70 “Ukrainian terrorists” were killed in Russia’s operation. He also referred to the attackers as “nationalists.”

Russian state TV reported the invaders were from Ukraine's armed forces. One report alleged the attackers used U.S. military equipment despite Washington’s assurances its weapons won't be used for attacks on Russia.

What's the truth?

It's hard to know. Analysts and commentators say both Russia and Ukraine would likely benefit from its own version of the events.

The British Defense Ministry tweeted Tuesday that “Russia will almost certainly use these incidents to support the official narrative that it is the victim in the war.”

Russian state media coverage appears to support this notion, with its allegations that U.S. weapons were used in the attack and the general tone of some reports that overlaid video from the region with tense, dramatic music.

For Kyiv, it's beneficial “to take up the position of an observer and not admit its involvement,” said Ukrainian military analyst Oleh Zhdanov.

“The fact is that the war is happening on Russian territory, the Kremlin is being clearly indicated that Russians are not the only ones who can employ hybrid (warfare) methods,” Zhdanov told AP.

The involvement of the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Freedom of Russia Legion should serve as signs that “there are forces inside Russia who can resist Putin’s regime,” he said.

At the same time, the Belgorod attack “showed Russia’s helplessness," Zhdanov said.

“Russia turned out to be completely unprepared -– neither its security forces, nor border guards, nor special services were prepared for hostilities on their own turf. The myth that Russia keeps its border locked has been busted,” he added.

Some Russian voices echoed that sentiment. Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner private military contractor, used the incident as yet another chance to bash the Russian Defense Ministry for not adequately protecting the border.

Alexander Kots, military correspondent with the pro-Kremlin newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda, also raised questions on his Telegram page.

“What’s with our technical equipment of the border, surveillance systems, motion detection systems?" he asked. "What’s with mining of the potentially dangerous areas? What’s with anti-tank equipment? Why did an enemy armored group breach deep into our territory?”

These are the questions “to which there are no answers,” Kots said. “To be more accurate, there are, but they’re very unpleasant.”

World

US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM

World

TRENDS Explores Cooperation with Indonesia’s BNPT and Launches Indonesian Edition of a Book

On its first day in Jakarta, Indonesia, as part of the third leg of its Asian research
tour, TRENDS Research ‘ Advisory met with the Indonesian National Counter
Terrorism Agency (BNPT). The discussion focused on the role of think tanks in
combating terrorism and extremist ideologies, as well as potential areas for
cooperation and partnership in specialized research and strategic studies.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS, presented the center’s
intellectual and research efforts in this field, emphasizing the crucial role think
tanks play in refuting the arguments of extremist groups.
TRENDS researchers also showcased the Encyclopedia of the Muslim
Brotherhood, a project comprising 35 books, with 12 already published and
translated into multiple languages.
During the discussion, TRENDS launched the Indonesian translation of the 11th
book in the encyclopedia, titled “The Concept of the State According to the
Muslim Brotherhood”
The book highlights the Muslim Brotherhood’s adversarial stance, since its
inception, toward the Arab states, viewing them as an obstacle to the group’s ascent
to power. The group opposed the modern principles upon which these states were
built, considering them incompatible with its unique interpretation of Islam, which
the group claimed to exclusively embody.
The discussion also featured the introduction of the Muslim Brotherhood
International Power Index (MBIPI), the first of its kind globally. Compiled

annually by TRENDS, the index tracks and measures the global influence and
strength of the Muslim Brotherhood.
TRENDS researchers were briefed by BNPT officials on the agency’s work, vision,
and achievements. The BNPT representatives praised TRENDS’ research efforts
and expressed a strong desire to establish constructive cooperation between the two
sides to enhance efforts in countering terrorism and extremist ideologies.
The discussion between TRENDS and BNPT underscored the importance of
mutual cooperation in this field and other research areas, fostering research
excellence and knowledge dissemination.
Both sides agreed to maintain communication with the goal of signing a
memorandum of understanding and cooperation.

World

White House Partners with Monroe Capital to Launch New Strategy to Support U.S. Automotive Industry Growth Initiatives and American Autoworkers

The White House selected Monroe Capital
LLC (“Monroe”) to develop a first-of-its-kind investment strategy focused on supporting
businesses operating in the U.S. automotive supply chain. Along with the anticipated advisory
support of MEMA, The Vehicle Suppliers Association (“MEMA”) and the Alliance for
Automotive Innovation, Monroe intends to launch this new strategy (the “Drive Forward Fund
LP” or the “Fund”) to help address this key White House initiative. The Drive Forward Fund LP
will seek to raise up to $1 billion and focus on investing in companies that play a pivotal role in
fueling growth and innovation within the $1 trillion U.S. automotive industry.
Monroe will develop this White House inspired strategy to support small and medium-sized
companies operating within the automotive value chain that are essential to the growth and
modernization of the U.S. automotive industry. The Drive Forward Fund LP will target suppliers
and manufacturers, as well as other adjacent businesses that provide complementary products
and services to the industry. The mission of the Drive Forward Fund LP is to provide financial
support to the businesses that supply mission critical parts such as powertrain, body, drivetrain,
chassis, interiors, and electrical components, as well as complementary Software-as-a-Service
(“SaaS”) and other auto technology and business service providers that cater to the industry. The
Fund will also evaluate growth opportunities to invest in innovative companies in battery
component and subcomponent manufacturing and materials recycling. This entire ecosystem of
businesses is critical to ensuring the U.S. position at the forefront of the global automotive
market. In addition, Monroe believes the Drive Forward Fund LP will benefit the American
automotive industry, which should have a positive impact on workers as well as state and local
economies with jobs in the areas where these target companies are located.
Building on the announcement Vice President Harris issued in Detroit in May supporting growth
and jobs in the automotive industry, Monroe will seek to provide capital solutions to help
manufacturers, suppliers, and service providers modernize the key automotive supply chains;
including the clean vehicle supply chain, as well as support jobs in the automotive industry –
more than 9.7 million across the country. As part of its strategy, the Fund also intends to provide
companies access to funding for technology investments, including but not limited to
investments in the transition from internal combustion production to electric vehicles (“EVs”), as
well as the software offerings that will drive the industry’s shift from a purely transaction sales
model to a complete vehicle lifecycle. Major technological enhancements transforming the
industry include Software-Defined Vehicles (“SDV”), autonomous driving systems, smart
factories, and many other connected technologies. The Fund’s investments will intend to not
only allow these businesses to capitalize on the industry’s compelling growth tailwinds, but also
to navigate supply chain challenges and the rapidly evolving operating landscape.

Monroe intends to pair private investor capital with leverage, including low-cost government-
guaranteed leverage that Monroe hopes to obtain through applying for a U.S. Small Business
Administration (“SBA”) Small Business Investment Company (“SBIC”) license for the Fund.
“We believe this new Drive Forward Fund will be critical to catalyzing growth and innovation
within America’s automotive supply chain,” said Monroe’s Chairman and CEO, Ted Koenig.
“The Fund will have an opportunity to provide essential financial support to small and medium-
sized businesses and will help provide a consistent and reliable supply chain to the Original
Equipment Manufacturers (“OEMs”), Tier 1 auto manufacturers, and other auto industry
stakeholders. In addition, the Fund will strive to provide support to auto industry suppliers as
they become more competitive and remain local community anchors as they grow their
businesses to support key initiatives within the overall automotive industry. Monroe Capital is
honored to play a leading role in this new strategy.”
Alex Parmacek, Portfolio Manager for the Fund at Monroe, added “Looking ahead, we believe
the automotive industry is poised for transformative changes driven by advancements in electric
vehicles (“EVs”), hydrogen fuel cell technology, and autonomous driving systems, among
others. We believe a shift towards clean energy and sustainable vehicles can play a role in efforts
to reduce carbon emissions and create a more durable supply base for the OEMs and Tier I
suppliers. This Drive Forward Fund expects to play a pivotal role in supporting these
technological innovations, to help ensure that the U.S. remains at the forefront of automotive
technology and manufacturing.”
Bill Long, President and CEO of MEMA, stated, “MEMA is pleased to have a seat at the table in
our ongoing collaboration with the White House to address industry challenges associated with
the transition to advanced technology vehicles and to enhance manufacturing competitiveness in
the US. In this role, MEMA will continue to provide insights to ensure the supplier community is
best served going forward.”
John Bozzella, President and CEO, Alliance for Automotive Innovation said, “A successful
transformation to automotive electrification in the United States requires a cutting-edge
automotive supply chain that keeps the country competitive and underpins our economic and
national security. Automakers are investing billions in this transition and building electrified
vehicles in all makes and models, but you’ve got to remember the automotive supply chain is
made up of hundreds of companies – many small and medium-sized businesses – that have been
churning out components and parts for generations, support communities across the country, and
keep the wheels turning on the $1 trillion American auto business. Auto suppliers are essential to
this transformation, and that’s what is promising about the Drive Forward Fund. It’s an option
for smaller auto businesses to access private money to modernize and support the production of
the vehicles of today – and tomorrow. We’re glad to be part of the advisory council for this new
fund and provide the automaker perspective.”
The Drive Forward Fund plans to be advised by a council of experts from across the automotive
industry to help ensure capital is directed to small and medium-sized auto suppliers,
manufacturers, and service providers with ties to significant domestic manufacturing content.

Monroe anticipates the advisory council will include representatives from MEMA and Alliance
for Automotive Innovation, with support from the OEMs, consultants and business organizations
who recognize the importance of providing adequate liquidity and stability for the auto supply
chain and critical suppliers. With the expected commitment of strategic and financial investors,
along with support and counsel from key industry leaders, the Fund intends to invest in
businesses that align with White House’s pledge to ensure that the future of the automotive
industry is made in America by American manufacturers and American autoworkers in the
communities that have historically powered the industry.
For limited partner investors, the Fund will seek to generate attractive returns on investment
while targeting exposure to manufacturers and other business service providers, coupled with
compelling growth opportunities in the EV and clean energy markets and auto technology. The
Fund will be managed by Monroe, an asset management firm that was previously recognized by
the SBA as the SBIC Fund of the Year. As of July 1, 2024, Monroe, together with its affiliates,
has approximately $20 billion in assets under management in a diversified private credit platform
of 35+ investment vehicles, with more than 450 active portfolio investments, comprised of direct
lending and alternative credit funds, business software, real estate, venture debt, publicly traded
and private BDCs, separately managed accounts, and collateralized loan obligations. The firm
has more than 250 employees and is headquartered in Chicago and maintains 10 offices
throughout the United States and Asia.
The Fund intends to begin fundraising after progressing through the SBA licensing process.
SBIC licensed funds nationwide manage more than $43 billion in SBA-government guaranteed
and private capital, providing equity investment and long-term loans to small businesses in a
wide range of industries.