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US defense budget speeds toward $1 trillion, with China in mind


The Pentagon intends to load up on advanced missiles, space defense and modern jets in its largest defense request in decades in order to meet the threat it perceives from China. The spending path would put military's annual budget over the $1 trillion threshold in just a matter of years, its chief financial officer said Monday.

The administration is asking Congress for $842 billion for the Pentagon in the 2024 budget year. It’s the largest request since the peak of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars in the mid-2000s, when the weight of hundreds of thousands of troops deployed in those overseas conflicts ballooned overseas war spending.

Now, the budget could surge again. That's in part to meet the higher cost of weapons and parts, but also to answer the vulnerabilities that the Ukraine war has exposed in the US defense industrial base, and the strategic threat the US sees from China’s rapidly growing nuclear arsenal, its hypersonic capabilities and its gains in space.

Even if it only grows to account for inflation, “the budget will hit a trillion dollars,” probably before the next five years, Pentagon comptroller Michael McCord told a press briefing. “Maybe that’s going to be a psychological, big watershed moment for many of us, or some of us, but it is inevitable.”

While the number seems astronomically high, it is only about 3 percent of the country's gross domestic product. For comparison, during World War II the country was spending about one-third of its GDP on defense, McCord said.

The budget request is part of an overall $6.8 trillion spending proposal rolled out by Biden last week, which Republicans say they’ll reject. But it’s not clear how they’ll act on the Pentagon proposal.

Some Republicans want to go beyond the military spending request. But some have also demanded sharp reductions in federal spending — something that would be difficult to accomplish without touching the defense budget.

While personnel and operations costs remain the largest portions of the annual defense budget, Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks called this years’ request “a procurement budget” with the Pentagon increasing buys across the board of modern weapon systems.

One of the largest new priorities is getting the US defense industrial base to speed production of munitions. Ukraine’s rate of use of 155 Howitzer rounds and other precision munitions has shown the US defense industrial base “is not where it needs to be,” McCord said.

It’s been a lesson learned over the last year, particularly as the US assesses how best it can prevent a similar fight over Taiwan, which could pit it against China.

The goal of the budget is to ensure China “wakes up every day, considers the risks of aggression, and concludes, ‘today is not the day,’” Hicks said.

The administration, for example, is asking Congress for $30 billion to produce more missiles. But they are “not the kind of missiles that are key to the Ukraine fight,” McCord said. “These are key to Indo-Pacific deterrence,” a goal also involving advanced air-to-air missiles, anti-ship missiles and long-range standoff missiles.

The Pentagon is also seeking rapid modernization of its air, space and nuclear weapons. The request includes almost $38 billion to buy new nuclear submarines, field the new B-21 stealth bomber and manufacture new ground-based intercontinental ballistic missiles.

The request would also fund research and testing for a new type of warplane, called Next Generation Air Dominance, which will have a piloted modern fighter jet, such as the F-35, commanding unmanned drones that accompany it on missions. The Air Force won’t say much about the drones, which they are calling “collaborative combat aircraft” – except that they are planning to field 1,000 of them.

The request includes the “largest space budget ever,” McCord said, as space has proven to be vital in the war in Ukraine and a critical front in any future confrontation. The Pentagon is seeking $33 billion to make its satellite communications more resilient to jamming or attack and rapidly field a new constellation of missile warning systems to assist in the detection, tracking and defense against a new generation of Chinese and Russian hypersonic missiles.

Even the Chinese spy balloon episode had an impact, even though the budget request was largely completed before the balloon was detected, drifted across the country and was shot down. The Pentagon is seeking about $90 million to add capabilities to better detect similar objects in the atmosphere in the future.

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Abu Dhabi Overtakes Oslo for Sovereign Wealth Fund Capital in Global SWF’s First City Ranking

Today, industry specialist Global SWF published a special report announcing a new global ranking of cities according to the capital managed by their Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs). The findings show that Abu Dhabi is the leading city that manages the most SWF capital globally, thanks to the US$ 1.7 trillion in assets managed by its various SWFs headquartered in the capital of the UAE. These include the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), Mubadala Investment Company (MIC), Abu Dhabi Developmental
Holding Company (ADQ), and the Emirates Investment Authority (EIA). Abu Dhabi now ranks slightly above Oslo, home to the world’s largest SWF, the Government Pension Fund (GPF), which manages over US$ 1.6 trillion in assets. Abu Dhabi and Oslo are followed by Beijing (headquarters of the China Investment Corporation), Singapore (with GIC Private and Temasek Holdings), Riyadh (home to the
Public Investment Fund), and Hong Kong (where China’s second SWF, SAFE
Investment Corporation, operates from). Together, these six cities represent two thirds
of the capital managed by SWFs globally, i.e., US$ 12.5 trillion as of October 1, 2024.
For the past few decades, Abu Dhabi has grown an impressive portfolio of institutional
investors, which are among the world’s largest and most active dealmakers. In addition
to its SWFs, the emirate is home to several other asset owners, including central banks,
pension funds, and family offices linked to member of the Royal Family. Altogether, Abu
Dhabi’s public capital is estimated at US$ 2.3 trillion and is projected to reach US$ 3.4
trillion by 2030, according to Global SWF estimates.
Abu Dhabi, often referred to as the “Capital of Capital,” also leads when it comes to
human capital i.e., the number of personnel employed by SWFs of that jurisdiction, with
3,107 staff working for funds based in the city.
Diego López, Founder and Managing Director of Global SWF, said: “The world ranking
confirms the concentration of Sovereign Wealth Funds in a select number of cities,
underscoring the significance of these financial hubs on the global stage. This report
offers valuable insights into the landscape of SWF-managed capital and shows how it is
shifting and expanding in certain cities in the world.”

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AM Best Briefing in Dubai to Explore State of MENA Insurance Markets; Panel to Feature CEOs From Leading UAE Insurance Companies

AM Best will host a briefing focused on the insurance markets of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) on 20 November 2024, at Kempinski Central Avenue in Dubai.
At this annual regional market event, senior AM Best analysts and leading executives
from the (re)insurance industry will discuss recent developments in the MENA region’s
markets and anticipate their implications in the short-to-medium term. Included in the
programme will be a panel of chief executive officers at key insurance companies in the
United Arab Emirates: Abdellatif Abuqurah of Dubai Insurance; Jason Light of Emirates
Insurance; Charalampos Mylonas (Haris) of Abu Dhabi National Insurance Company
(ADNIC); and Dr. Ali Abdul Zahra of National General Insurance (NGI).
Shivash Bhagaloo, managing partner of Lux Actuaries & Consultants, will his present
his observations in an additional session regarding implementation of IFRS 17 in the
region. The event also will highlight the state of the global and MENA region
reinsurance sectors, as well as a talk on insurance ramifications stemming from the
major United Arab Emirates floods of April 2024. The programme will be followed by a
networking lunch.
Registration for the market briefing, which will take place in the Diamond Ballroom at the
Kempinski hotel, begins at 9:00 a.m. GST with introductory comments at 9:30 a.m.
Please visit www.ambest.com/conference/IMBMENA2024 for more information or to
register.
AM Best is a global credit rating agency, news publisher and data analytics
provider specialising in the insurance industry. Headquartered in the United
States, the company does business in over 100 countries with regional offices in
London, Amsterdam, Dubai, Hong Kong, Singapore and Mexico City.

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Future of Automotive Mobility 2024: UAE Leads the Charge in Embracing Digital Car Purchases and Alternative Drivetrains

-UAE scores show highest percentage among the region in willingness to purchase a car
completely online
– Openness to fully autonomous cars has grown to 60% vs previous 32%.
– More than half of UAE respondents in the survey intend to move to hybrid cars during
next car purchase, while less than 15% intend to move to fully electric car.
– UAE sees strong use of new mobility services such as ride-hailing (Uber, Careem, Hala
Taxi)
– The perceived future importance of having a car is not only increasing in UAE but is
higher than any other major region globally, even China

Arthur D. Little (ADL) has released the fourth edition of its influential Future of Automotive Mobility (FOAM) report, presenting a detailed analysis of current and future trends in the automotive industry. This year’s study, with insights from over 16,000 respondents across 25 countries, includes a comprehensive focus on the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The report examines car ownership, electric vehicles,
autonomous driving, and new mobility services within the UAE.

“The UAE is at the forefront of automotive innovation and consumer readiness for new mobility
solutions,” said Alan Martinovich, Partner and Head of Automotive Practice in the Middle East
and India at Arthur D. Little. “Our findings highlight the UAE’s significant interest in
transitioning to electric vehicles, favorable attitudes towards autonomous driving technologies,
and a strong inclination towards digital transactions in car purchases. These insights are critical
for automotive manufacturers and policymakers navigating the evolving landscape of the UAE
automotive market.”
Key Findings for the UAE:
1. Car Ownership:
o Over half of UAE respondents perceive that the importance of owning a car is
increasing, with the study showing the increase higher than any other major
region, including China.
o Approximately 80% of UAE respondents expressed interest in buying new (as
opposed to used) cars, above Europe and the USA which have mature used
vehicle markets

2. Shift to Electric and Hybrid Vehicles:
o While a high number of UAE respondents currently own internal combustion
engine (ICE) vehicles, more than half intend that their next vehicle have an
alternative powertrain, with significant interest in electric and plug-in hybrid
(PHEV) options. Less than 15% plan to opt for pure battery electric vehicles
(BEVs).

3. Emerging Mobility Trends:

o Ride-hailing services are the most popular new mobility option among UAE
residents, with higher usage rates than traditional car sharing and ride sharing.
The study indicates a strong openness to switching to alternative transport modes
given the quality and service levels available today.

4. Autonomous Vehicles:
o UAE consumers are among the most open globally to adopting autonomous
vehicles, with a significant increase in favorable attitudes from 32% in previous
years to 60% this year versus approximately 30% in mature markets. Safety
concerns, both human and machine-related, remain the primary obstacles to
broader adoption.

5. Car Purchasing Behavior and Sustainability:
o The internet has become a dominant channel for UAE residents throughout the car
buying process, from finding the right vehicle to arranging test drives and closing
deals. UAE car buyers visit dealerships an average of 3.9 times before making a
purchase, higher than any other region in the world, emphasizing the need for
efficient integration of online and offline experiences.
o Upwards of 53% of respondents from the region would prefer to ‘close the deal’
and complete the purchase of their car online, which is the highest for any region
in the world.
o Sustainability is a key factor cited by UAE consumers as influencing car choice.
The UAE scored among the top half of regions, highlighting the importance of
environmental considerations.

“Our study confirms the promising market opportunities for car manufacturers (OEMs) and
distributors in the UAE” commented Philipp Seidel, Principal at Arthur D. Little and co-Author
of the Global Study. “Consumers in the Emirates show a great and increasing appetite for cars
while being among the most demanding globally when it comes to latest vehicle technologies
and a seamless purchase and service experience.”
The comprehensive report, “The Future of Automotive Mobility 2024” by Richard Parkin and
Philipp Seidel, delves into global automotive trends and their impact on various regions,
including the UAE. This study is an invaluable tool for industry stakeholders seeking to navigate
and leverage the dynamic changes driving the future of mobility.

 

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