World

More Russian oil going east squeezes Iranian crude sales to China

Iran’s crude exports to China have fallen sharply since the start of the Ukraine war as Beijing favored heavily discounted Russian barrels, leaving almost 40 million barrels of Iranian oil stored on tankers at sea in Asia and seeking buyers.
US and European sanctions imposed over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24 have pushed more Russian crude east, where China has snapped it up, cutting demand for oil from Iran and Venezuela, which are also both under Western sanctions.
About 20 vessels with oil from Iran were at anchor near Singapore as of mid-May, shippers’ data showed.
Some tankers have been anchored since February but the number storing Iranian oil climbed swiftly since April, trading and shipping sources said, as more Russian oil headed east.
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Kpler data, an analytics company, said it estimated the amount of Iranian oil in floating storage near Singapore rose to 37 million barrels in mid-May from 22 million barrels in early April.
The United States banned imports of Russian oil shortly after Moscow’s invasion, while the European Union is considering a phased embargo, pushing more Russian oil cargoes toward Asia.
“Russia can switch almost half of its exports to southeast Asia, especially China… and that is a huge potential threat for Iranian crude exports,” Hamid Hosseini, board member of Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union in
Tehran, told Reuters.
Iran, whose oil industry has struggled for years under US sanctions imposed over Tehran’s nuclear work, has long relied on Chinese oil purchases to keep the economy afloat.
Iran’s exports to China were estimated at 700,000 to 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) in March, according to data and consultancy firm calculations.
But in April, those exports were estimated to have dropped by between 200,000 and 250,000 bpd, according to Iman Nasseri, managing director for the Middle East with FGE consultancy, suggesting a drop of roughly a quarter or a third.
Kpler said Iran had on average exported 930,000 bpd, mainly to China in the first quarter, while its preliminary estimate for April was 755,000 bpd, although it said that estimate could be revised because of the difficulty of tracking Iranian sales.

Trade under sanctions

“China is now clearly buying more [Russian] Urals cargoes. Exports of Urals to China have more than tripled. That comes despite a weakening in Chinese imports,” said Homayoun Falakshahi, a senior analyst at Kpler.
China, where total oil imports have fallen recently because of COVID-19 restrictions, is also the largest buyer of Russian ESPO Blend crude.
Iran and Russia have been in close contact in recent weeks to discuss how to trade oil under sanctions, three sources told Reuters. One source said the Russian side wanted to learn how Iran had navigated transport, trade and banking, while the two sides also discussed creating joint companies, banks and funds.
Another of the sources said more talks were planned when Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak visits Iran next week.
But the talks have not eased the competition to find buyers for Russian Urals and Iranian crudes, which are usually heavier with higher sulphur content, tending to make them more expensive to process than Russian oil.
“Nobody’s looking at Iranian crude anymore as Russian grades are of much better quality and at lower prices. Iranian oil sellers are under severe pressure,” said a trader with a Chinese refiner.
He said Urals delivered to China was selling at discounts of $9 per barrel to Brent for June delivery, so Iranian barrels had to be offered at discounts of $12 to $15 to compete.
“You can legally buy Russian oil at discount, but Iranian oil continues to be the subject of sanctions, so naturally people go for the easier option,” a European trader said, referring to the tighter US sanctions on Iran’s exports.
India, meanwhile, has increased purchases of Russian crude.
By early June, India will have imported more than 30 million barrels in the past three months, according to Kpler, more than double the volume imported in the whole of 2021.
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World

Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi meets with CEOs of leading Norwegian companies

H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, has met with a group of CEOs from leading Norwegian companies, as part of their participation in the UAE-Norway Investment Forum, held alongside his official visit to the Kingdom of Norway.

During the meeting, H.H. Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed underscored the UAE leadership’s commitment to strengthening economic cooperation with its international partners.

He highlighted that investment in innovation and knowledge is a cornerstone for achieving sustainable development, noting that enhancing collaboration with Norwegian companies across key sectors will open new avenues for mutual economic growth between the two countries.

The UAE-Norway Investment Forum, taking place in Oslo, aimed to highlight available investment opportunities and strengthen trade relations between the UAE and Norway, fostering shared interests and supporting innovation and knowledge-based economic visions.

-wam

World

At the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS inaugurates 10th global office, releases four books

As part of its Asian research tour, partnership with Aletihad News Center, and
primary sponsorship of the Indonesia International Book Fair 2024, TRENDS
Research & Advisory inaugurated its office in Jakarta, marking its 10th location
worldwide. It also released four books in Indonesian.
The inauguration event was attended by ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, and
Jordan to Indonesia, chairpersons of the UAE and Indonesian Publishers’
Associations, the Director of TRENDS’ Jakarta office, and a group of researchers
and academics.
Speaking at the event, Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS
Research & Advisory, stated that TRENDS’ international offices—set to reach 15
by the end of 2024—aim to enhance the Center’s research efforts and deepen its
role in disseminating knowledge, thus serving as a global knowledge bridge.
He emphasized, “At TRENDS, we believe in the importance of cooperation
between think tanks and prioritize this endeavor. We believe the TRENDS office in
Jakarta will enhance the exchange of knowledge and ideas between think tanks in
Asia and the Middle East, opening new horizons for collaboration in various
fields.”

Four books in Indonesian
As part of the Jakarta office’s inaugural activities, four books were released in
Indonesian, including the 11th and 12th books of the Muslim Brotherhood
Encyclopedia and Global Trends in AI and Automation and the Future of
Competition between Man and Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision.

Hostility to Arab states
The 11th book of the Muslim Brotherhood Encyclopedia, The Concept of the State
According to the Muslim Brotherhood, highlights its hostile stance toward Arab
states since its inception. The group views them as an obstacle to its ascent to
power. It opposed the modern principles upon which these states were built,
considering them incompatible with the group’s unique interpretation of Islam,
which it claimed to embody exclusively.

Exclusion of nonconformists
The 12th book, The Muslim Brotherhood: Rejection of Tolerance and Exclusion of
Nonconformists, examines the Muslim Brotherhood’s stance towards
nonconformists, individuals, and entities. The book reveals the group’s binary view
of the world, categorizing others as allies or adversaries. It ties these relationships
to the Brotherhood’s internal power struggles and self-serving interests.

Global Trends in AI
The third book, Global Trends in AI, explores significant developments in AI and
its impact on various aspects of life, including the economy, society, and
governance. It also offers a comprehensive analysis of technological advancements
in AI, its applications across sectors, the ethical and social challenges it presents,
and its future trajectory.

Automation

The fourth book, Automation and the Future of Competition between Man and
Machine: An Analytical Forward-looking Vision, addresses the growing challenges
faced by the human workforce in the face of widespread automation and AI
applications. The book concludes that while automation presents a significant
challenge to the labor market, it simultaneously creates new opportunities. It
emphasizes the importance of preparing for this shift through skills development,
continuous education, and adopting economic and social policies that support the
workforce.

Prominent pavilion and active presence
The TRENDS’ pavilion at the Indonesia International Book Fair has attracted
numerous visitors, including academic researchers and officials, such as the
ambassadors of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Jordan, and Turkey. Additionally,
chairpersons of Arab and Indonesian publishers’ associations, authors, publishers,
and students visited the pavilion. All were impressed with and praised TRENDS’ diverse, valuable publications. They also commended TRENDS’ active
international presence and ability to address global developments with rigorous
analytical research.
Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali honored the esteemed guests, including
ambassadors of the UAE and Bahrain to Indonesia, Wedha Startesti Yudha,
Chairperson of the Indonesia International Book Fair Committee, Arys Hilman
Nugraha, Chairman of the Indonesian Publishers Association, and others,
presenting them with TRENDS’ publications and commemorative shields.
Additionally, he awarded TRENDS’ Research Medal to Ni Made Ayu Martini
Indonesian Deputy Minister of Marketing, Tourism and Creative Economy
It is worth noting that during its current Asian research tour, TRENDS announced
the launch of the TRENDS Research Medal, awarded to individuals who make
significant contributions to the development of scientific research and promote collaboration with TRENDS in strengthening a culture of research across various fields.

World

US determined to prevent full-scale war in Middle East, Joe Biden tells UNGA79

US President Joe Biden highlighted the US Administration’s determination to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire Middle East region, noting that a diplomatic solution “remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely”.

In remarks he made today before the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA79), the US President said, “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” adding that a diplomatic solution is still possible.

He also touched on “the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank”, and the need to “set the conditions for a better future”, which he said featured “a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalised relations with all its neighbours, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own”.

President Biden underscored the ceasefire and hostage deal put forth by Qatar and Egypt, which the UN Security Council endorsed. He said, “Now is the time for the parties to finalise its terms, bring the hostages home,” adding that this would help ease the suffering in Gaza, and end the war.

-WAM